EGU24-3061, updated on 08 Mar 2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3061
EGU General Assembly 2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Links between weather variability and Dengue outbreaks in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Falak Naz1,2, Júlia Araújo3, Sheila Oliveira4, Seyma Celina5, Aleš Urban1,2, and Jiří Černý5
Falak Naz et al.
  • 1Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic (falaknazchanna@gmail.com)
  • 2Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic (urban@ufa.cas.cz)
  • 3Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
  • 4University of São Francisco, Bragança Paulista, Brazil
  • 5Faculty of Tropical AgriSciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic

Mosquito-borne diseases are among the most dangerous threats for all people living in tropical areas. Previous research has shown that the highest incidence of mosquito-borne diseases is associated with a particular type of weather (usually wet and hot) as mosquitos’ activity and development are highly dependent on meteorological conditions. However, short-term associations (on the scale of days up to a few weeks) have been less understood.

In this study, we collected weekly data on the incidence of Dengue on a municipality level in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2016–2022, and matched it with ERA5-based weather variables (ambient temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation). We employed a multilevel meta-regression analysis to i) analyse the links between Dengue incidence and weather variability in, and ii) develop a model to predict a Dengue fever outbreak based on actual weather conditions and socioeconomic variables.

Our preliminary results suggest a significant association of a Dengue outbreak with above-average daily mean temperature and humidity, heavy rainfalls, and calm conditions in previous 2-6 weeks. Further analysis is needed to identify spatial differences in these patterns based on socioeconomic conditions.

How to cite: Naz, F., Araújo, J., Oliveira, S., Celina, S., Urban, A., and Černý, J.: Links between weather variability and Dengue outbreaks in Sao Paulo, Brazil, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3061, 2024.