Overturning Pathways Control AMOC Weakening in CMIP6 Models

Future projections indicate the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken and shoal in response to global warming, but models disagree widely over the amount of weakening. We analyse projected AMOC weakening in 34 CMIP6 climate models, in terms of changes in three return pathways of the AMOC. The branch of the AMOC that returns through diffusive upwelling in the Indo-Pacific, but does not later upwell in the Southern Ocean (SO), is particularly sensitive to warming, in part, because shallowing of the deep flow of the AMOC prevents it from entering the Indo-Pacific via the SO. In most models, this Indo-Pacific pathway declines to zero by 2100. Thus, the present-day strength of this pathway provides a strong constraint on the projected AMOC weakening. However, estimates of this pathway using four observationally based methods imply a wide range of AMOC weakening under the SSP5-8.5 scenario of 29%–61% by 2100. Our results suggest that improved observational constraints on this pathway would substantially reduce uncertainty in 21st century AMOC decline. We also present new findings that compare the AMOC response in realistic warming scenarios with those found under more extreme climate forcings, including quadrupled CO2 concentrations and large North Atlantic freshwater forcing.