Investigating the Potential for Using Real-Time Neutron Monitor Data as a Proxy for Estimating the Impact of Ground-Level Enhancements on Radiation Doses at Aviation Altitudes

Solar eruptions can accelerate solar energetic particles (SEPs) to high energies which can, if they have sufficient energy, penetrate the Earth’s magnetic environment leading to numerous space weather hazards that can affect infrastructure and human health. Strong SEP events can be detected by ground-based neutron monitors (NMs) and registered at the Earth’s surface as ground-level enhancements (GLEs) if several NMs detect a significant increase in cosmic-ray count rates caused by arriving SEPs. The increase in the flux of high-energy particles entering the atmosphere during GLEs enhances the complex radiation environment at high altitudes which can pose a serious risk to airplane crew and passengers. As such there is a strong desire to develop nowcasting models that can quickly estimate the impact of GLEs on human health to help mitigate the threat GLEs pose. One avenue of approaching this issue is the development and application of proxies that allow for quick conservative estimates of the hazards. In this work, 21 of the 73 currently recorded GLEs have been analysed using the same verified method revealing the SEP characteristics during the events. These characteristics are used as inputs into a newly developed CRAC:DOMO radiation model to compute the radiation dose experienced at aviation altitudes. A comparison was then done with the real-time NM data during the GLE events to establish a relationship between the modelled dose and empirical NM data through a large statistical analysis. This was successful, with a very strong relationship being shown between the two variables. This result provides scientific support for using real-time NM data as a potential proxy in future nowcasting models aimed at estimating and mitigating the impacts of GLEs on humans and the aviation industry.