Influences of urbanization on an afternoon heavy rainfall event over the Yangtze River Delta region in East China

This study examines the urban impacts associated with a developed city belt on generating an afternoon heavy rainfall event over a coastal developing city that is 70–100 km downwind from the city belt over the Yangtze River Delta region. Observational analyses show pronounced urban heat island (UHI) effects along the upstream city belt prior to convection initiation (CI). A series of cloud-permitting model simulations with the finest grid spacing of 1 km are performed to examine the impacts of urbanization on CI and the subsequent heavy rainfall event. Results reveal the generation of warm anomalies and low-level convergence in the planetary boundary layer along the upstream city belt, thereby inducing upward motion for CI. The southwesterly flows of the monsoonal warm-moist air, enhanced by the UHI effects along the city belt, allow the development of convective cells along the belt. Some of the cells merge during their downstream propagation, promoting to the ultimate generation of the distinct heavy rainfall centers in favor of local convective clusters over the coastal city where atmospheric columns are more moist and potentially unstable under the influences of sea breezes. Sensitivity simulations show small contribution of the downstream city but more influences from the upstream city belt on the heavy rainfall event. The above findings help elucidate how the UHI effects could assist the CI in a weak-gradient environment, and explain why urbanization can contribute to increased downwind mean and extreme precipitation under the influences of favorable regional forcing conditions. These findings have been published in Monthly Weather Review.