EGU24-3737, updated on 08 Mar 2024
EGU General Assembly 2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Arctic sea ice loss and La Niña as precursors of extreme East Asian cold winters

Yeon-Soo Jang1,2, Hyung-Gyu Lim1,3,4, Sang-Yoon Jun5, and Jong-Seong Kug2
Yeon-Soo Jang et al.
  • 1Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology, KIOST, Ocean Climate Prediction Center, Korea, Republic of (
  • 2Pohang University of Science and Technology, POSTECH, Korea, Republic of
  • 3Princeton University/Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, NJ, USA
  • 4Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, CA, USA
  • 5Korea Polar Research Institute, KOPRI, Korea, Republic of

Despite current global warming due to increasing greenhouse gases, severe cold winters have devastated the East Asia in recent decades. Efforts are being made to predict cold events using dynamic models and physically-based statistical models. In this study, we explore the potential predictability of the East Asian winter surface temperature by establishing a multiple linear regression model based on three precursors of time-evolved preconditions: 1) autumn Arctic sea-ice loss, 2) northern Eurasian sea level pressure pattern, and 3) the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Reduced autumn Arctic sea-ice was favorable for extreme cold events in the East Asia. Furthermore, the autumn Arctic sea-ice loss was accompanied by cyclonic circulations over northern Eurasia in November, which could have led to cold anomalies over the East Asia in the late winter. The preconditioning deep convection in La Niña events is a well-known indicator of exerted atmospheric wave propagation, resulting in cold winters over the East Asia. We suggested here that by combining Arctic sea-ice, atmospheric circulations, and ENSO, the predictability of East Asian winter surface temperature variability could be improved.

How to cite: Jang, Y.-S., Lim, H.-G., Jun, S.-Y., and Kug, J.-S.: Arctic sea ice loss and La Niña as precursors of extreme East Asian cold winters, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3737,, 2024.