Biogeochemical feedback effects on future wetland methane emissions and implications for global mitigation
- 1Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Peking University, China (lshen@pku.edu.cn)
- 2College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University
- 3Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland,
- 4Ministry of Education, Fujian Normal University
- 5Department of Environmental Science, Baylor University
- 6Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California Los Angeles
- 7Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
- 8College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University
- 9School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Birmingham
Natural wetlands account for one-third of global methane (CH4) emissions and so profoundly influence climate. However, existing estimates of future changes in CH4 usually neglect feedbacks associated with global biogeochemical cycles. Here, we employ data-driven approaches to estimate both current and future wetland emissions that consider the effects of changing meteorology and biogeochemical feedbacks arising from sulfate deposition and CO2 fertilization. We report intensified wetland emissions from 2000-2100, with biogeochemical effects explaining 30% of emissions growth by 2100. Our results suggest that 8-15% more aggressive cuts to anthropogenic methane emissions are needed if we are to stay within the Paris Agreement guardrails of 1.5°C warming.
How to cite: Shen, L., Peng, S., Zhang, Z., Tong, C., Lin, J., Li, Y., Zhong, H., Ma, S., Zhuang, M., and Gauci, V.: Biogeochemical feedback effects on future wetland methane emissions and implications for global mitigation, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4267, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4267, 2024.
