Spatiotemporal variations in damages to socio-economic system from meteorological disasters in mainland China during 1989–2022

Drought, flood, hail and low temperature frost (LTF) are the main agrometeorological disasters in China. However, a comprehensive and quantitative study on the long-term trend of farmland and economic damage across the country is still lacking and needs to be carried out urgently. Based on historical statistical data from yearbooks and bulletins, the overall characteristics of the impacts of provincial meteorological disasters on population, economy and farmland during 1989-2022 were analyzed by using Mann-Kendall trend test at yearly and provincial scales in China. The results showed that the proportion of direct economic losses caused by meteorological disasters to GDP showed a decreasing trend. The SGD13.1 index, based on the number of deaths and the value of disaster losses, shows that there are abrupt years on the time scale under the Mann-Kendall trend test. In the past 30 years, crop loss in China has increased first and then decreased under natural disasters, and drought is the most serious type of disaster that causes farmland loss. The Person correlation analysis combining disaster intensity index and multiple factors shows that agricultural economic output has a significant negative correlation with disaster intensity, SDG13.1 and total precipitation, and a positive correlation with average annual temperature. There was a significant positive correlation between SDG13.1 and disaster intensity index. The results of this study systematically reveal the damage characteristics of meteorological disasters to socio-economic system in China, which are critical and necessary for disaster risk reduction and adaptive strategy development.