Understanding and managing growing drought risks – the need for a systemic perspective

In the last few years, the world has experienced numerous extreme droughts with adverse impacts on coupled human and natural systems. While agriculture is the most affected sector, the lack of water due to droughts in our highly interconnected world also affects ecosystems, public water supply, power generation, tourism, water-borne transport and buildings, often with non-linear cascading and systemic impacts. Moreover, droughts also interact with other hazards in complex ways, for example leading to compound heat-drought events, wildfires or aggravated impacts when concurring with other non-climatic hazards and shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, responses to droughts can also lead to response risks, for example when the establishment of reservoirs in response to droughts leads to overreliance on these reservoirs and in turn increases the vulnerability of communities, sectors and systems to droughts. Combined, these characteristics pose a serious challenge to our ability to grasp the complexities of drought risks and to manage them in a comprehensive way. To avoid ineffective risk management and maladaptation, a paradigm shift in how we look at, assess and manage drought risks is urgently needed – from a siloed, single-risk (e.g. drought risks for agriculture, energy, transport) to a systemic perspective.  

However, despite more frequent and severe events, systemic drought risk assessment is still incipient compared to that of other meteorological and climate hazards. This is mainly due to the outlined complexity of drought, the high level of uncertainties in its analysis, and the lack of community agreement on a common framework to tackle the problem. Addressing this gap, we propose a novel drought risk framework that highlights the systemic nature of drought risks, and show its operationalization using the example of the 2022 drought in Europe. Our research emphasizes that solutions to tackle growing drought risks should not only consider the underlying drivers of drought risks for different sectors, systems or regions, but also be based on an understanding of sector/system interdependencies, feedbacks, dynamics, compounding and concurring hazards, as well as possible tipping points and globally and/or regionally networked risks.