Concealed hydrothermal alteration zones provide mechanical weaknesses within lava domes

Catastrophic lava dome collapse is considered an unpredictable volcanic hazard because the physical properties, stress conditions, and internal structure of lava domes are not well understood. To better explain the locations of recent dome instability events at Merapi volcano, Indonesia (1), we combined geochemical and mineralogical analyses, rock physical property measurements, drone-based photogrammetry, and numerical modelling. We show that a linear fissure and a horseshoe-shaped alteration zone that formed in 2014 was buried by lava extrusion in 2018. The linear fissure controlled the location of the new lava dome, while the horseshoe shaped zone influenced subsequent instability. Geomechanical, mineralogical, and geochemical data suggest that such alteration zones are characterised by mechanically weak, hydrothermally altered materials, and we show that the new lava dome is collapsing along this now-hidden horseshoe shaped and comparatively weak alteration zone (2). To derive an improved general understanding of this phenomenon, we then combined recent laboratory data for the mechanical behaviour of dome rocks with discrete element method models to show that the presence of weak zones within lava domes increases instability, which is exacerbated when the size of the zone increases or when the zone is positioned off-centre (3). Our results highlight that improved understanding of dome architecture and compositional variations due to hydrothermal alteration within domes is essential for assessing hazards associated with dome and edifice failure at volcanoes worldwide.