Understanding the role of emissions in future air-quality scenarios over Central Europe

Air quality depends on emissions, but climate and meteorology also play a role in it. To understand better the contribution of each of these factors, we have to study the evolution of air pollution by varying these drivers. In this study, we are investigating the role that changes in emissions play in air-quality following the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the 2026-2035 and 2046-2055 decades. We assume that the changes of climate conditions are negligible in comparison to changes in emissions, thus isolating the contribution of emission changes in future air pollution. To carry out the study, a simulation with present-day (2010-2019 decade) emissions and meteorology was performed, and another four simulations with future emissions are being carried out at the moment. The emission input for 2010-2019 was compiled using the Flexible Universal Processor for Modeling Emissions (http://www.fume-ep.org/), and the two future decades were created by applying scaling factors on the present-day emissions based on the mentioned RCPs. The simulations are being performed both by the Weather Research and Forecast with online chemistry version 4.0.3 (WRF-Chem) model and the Comprehensive Air-quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) version 7.20. The present-day simulation is being validated by studying several pollutants (such as NO2, O3, SO2, CO, PM10 and PM2.5) and meteorological variables and comparing them with observational data.