Identifying effective strategies for cereal cultivation under dry climate in Bavaria

Farmers cultivating cereals in Germany have experienced unfavorable conditions during the recent decade due to more frequent droughts and heat episodes (Lüttger & Feike, 2018). These events are likely to aggravate in the future (Trnka et al., 2014). Drought and heat-related yield reductions were already being seen in cereal crops all over the country (Webber et al., 2020; Schmitt et al., 2022).

Franconia covers the northern part of Bavaria, the the most important region for wheat and silage maize cultivation. At the same time, Franconia is the driest region in Bavaria with mean annual precipitation <600 mm.  In the past decade, there has been a noticeable variability in crop yields. Particularly 2018 and 2020 had substantial yield shortfall due to lower rainfall amounts. However, not all regions experienced similar yield reductions. Therfore, further evaluation of the causes of yield variability in response to dry years is essential when choosing practices to increase plant resilience.

Previous studies investigating adaptation options of cereals to climate variability suggested practices such as early maturing cultivars, preceding sowing dates and breeding towards resistant varieties.

The objective of this study is to identify the challenges farmers in Franconia have faced in recent years regarding climate conditions. The temporal focus is from 2015 until the harvest of 2023. Based on that, by integrating farmer’s knowledge and experience we aim to identify successful adaptation strategies that reflect in higher and stable production under dry conditions – but also promise good yields in wet years.

Our approach is multi-faceted, including the evaluation of agricultural strategies applied by farmers, climate data analysis, and integration of satellite data and spatial characteristics. In addition, we use a long term experiment results on cereal cultivaiton methods to support the research findings. By conducting in-depth interviews with ~100 farmers in the region, we explore recent and local farming perspectives. With this combination of methods, we aim to dissect successful approaches and understand pivotal causes for sustainable productivity.

Eventually, we will be able to recommend a comprehensive set of scientifically sound and practical approaches for economic, climate resilient cereal farming under increasingly dry conditions in Northern Bavaria. 

Fig. 1. A flow chart of the data sources used in the research.

 

References:

Lüttger, A. B., & Feike, T. (2018). Development of heat and drought related extreme weather events and their effect on winter wheat yields in Germany. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 132(1–2), 15–29. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2076-y

Schmitt, J., Offermann, F., Söder, M., Frühauf, C., & Finger, R. (2022). Extreme weather events cause significant crop yield losses at the farm level in German agriculture. Food Policy, 112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2022.102359

Trnka, M., Rötter, R. P., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Kersebaum, K. C., Olesen, J. E., Žalud, Z., & Semenov, M. A. (2014). Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change. Nature Climate Change, 4(7), 637–643. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2242

Webber, H., Lischeid, G., Sommer, M., Finger, R., Nendel, C., Gaiser, T., & Ewert, F. (2020). No perfect storm for crop yield failure in Germany. Environmental Research Letters, 15(10). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba2a4