Parameter optimization of an agro-ecological model for regional NUTS-3 yield data

Climate change increasingly affects agricultural systems in Central Europe, necessitating the development of robust forecasting models for drought, heat, and fire events (DHF). These hazards pose significant threats to crop production and require proactive measures to enhance resilience and adaptation.

This research project is dedicated to constructing a thorough framework for forecasting DHF events in Central Europe. It integrates an agro-ecosystem model aimed at examining how crops respond, particularly when it comes to water availability. The focus of this research extends to the region's awareness to climate-related threats and the robustness of its agricultural systems.

We utilize the MONICA (Model for Nitrogen and Carbon in Agriculture) crop model to simulate crop growth and response across a spectrum of environmental conditions. The MONICA model is designed to represent the complexity of crop development, considering factors such as soil properties and weather variations. MONICA model has the capacity to explore various scenarios, including heat stress and drought sensitivity, providing a comprehensive view of how crops respond to these challenges.

 The used data includes high-resolution meteorological (1km resolution, daily), topographic, historical crop records and soil information for whole Germany. The dataset covers the past two decades, encompassing vital information such as crop yield records.

By sensitivity analysiswe systematically identified key parameters influencing simulated crop yield and above ground biomass, particularly in the context of drought and heat stress. These insights are invaluable for advancing our understanding of how crops respond to environmental stressors.

Moving forward, our focus shifts to the calibration and optimization routines to quantify specific parameter sets for individual NUTS-3 regions within Germany.

In the poster presentation, we look forward to sharing the newest findings from our ongoing research on advanced calibration tools and yield simulations conducted over Germany. Simulation results are compared to observed yield data, providing valuable insights into the effectiveness and real-world applicability of the modelling approaches.