Variability in the Arctic Ocean currents during 1990-2100

The Arctic Ocean is changing rapidly due to climate change, with significant impacts on subpolar ocean dynamics and mid-latitude regional weather. By utilizing a global, 1/12 degree, ocean sea-ice model (NEMO-SI3), which is forced at its surface by an Earth System Model, UKESM1.1, and simulates from 1981 to 2100 under scenario SSP3-7.0, we will demonstrate significant differences in the spatial structure and energy spectrum of Arctic Ocean currents among the past, the present, and the future. We will then explore the implications of changes in Arctic Ocean currents on mass transport pathways within the Arctic and transport across its boundaries. Subsequently, our study will identify the dominant physical drivers of these changes, such as sea ice melting, freshwater discharge, wind stresses, surface heat fluxes, and tides.