Assessment and projection of food security related ecosystem services in Nakhon Phanom, northeastern Thailand

Food security is a major concern in the Lower Mekong River Basin, especially under the projected climate change conditions. The areas suitable for rice cultivation, the most important agricultural product in the basin, are expected to change drastically, with the most severe reduction in northeast Thailand. This study investigated the variations in the past ten years of three ecosystem services directly related to agricultural production in Nakhon Phanom, a mostly rural province in northeast Thailand. Using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) program, and historical and projected climate data up to 2050, we discovered significant variations in water yield, and nutrient and sediment delivery to streams that were strongly correlated with changes in local land use. Further variations can be expected in the future with significant differences observed between and rainy seasons. Sustainable adaptation strategies, such as nature-based solutions, are therefore highly recommended to safeguard and enhance food security within this region.