Spatiotemporal analysis and projections of wildfire risk across Pakistan under different climate change scenarios

 

Wildfires are becoming more intense and frequent, with record-breaking fire seasons witnessed across the world in recent years. Amid rising global temperatures, the challenge to understand, communicate and ultimately reduce wildfire risk is critical. A recent report published by the United Nations Environment Programme noted a particular increase in fire prevalence across regions that were not previously considered fire-prone, including the Indian subcontinent. In Pakistan, wildfire has gradually emerged as a significant environmental and societal threat. However, it is unclear how such threats will evolve under climate change, and to what extent Pakistan’s ongoing afforestation projects, such as the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami, take changes in risk into account. 

Here, we explore how meteorological conditions conducive to wildfire are likely to respond to a changing climate throughout Pakistan. Following an initial spatiotemporal analysis of wildfire occurrence based on satellite-derived data between 2001 and 2020, we identity hotspots of fire activity across the forested regions of the Baluchistan, Kashmir, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab provinces. Using the fire weather index (FWI) derived from the simulations of 14 global climate model ensembles from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we then quantify changes in fire danger throughout the 21st century under four climate change scenarios defined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We show that the magnitude of seasonal mean FWI is projected to increase by as much as 10% by the end of the century under the highest emissions scenario, with up to 20 additional days of extreme fire weather projected per year.  

Our conclusions advise on how forest management strategies and afforestation projects across Pakistan should account for potential changes in wildfire risk associated with a changing climate. We introduce a prototype online portal as a mechanism to disseminate results and communicate future risk to a range of potential stakeholders. Further work will focus on the resilience of wildfire forecasting and early warning systems in a changing climate.