Morocco’s Earthquake Risk Management: A Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach and Implications for the Recent Japan Earthquake

Effective management and communication of earthquake risks is crucial for enhancing societal preparedness and resilience. This study investigates earthquake management strategies using Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM), specifically the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The focal earthquake event driving this investigation occurred on September 8, 2023, at 11:11 PM local time. With a magnitude of 6.8, the seismic incident had its epicenter approximately 72 km southwest of Marrakech within the Al Haouz province.
A comprehensive assessment is conducted on ten distinct earthquake management strategies in Morocco. These encompass building codes and construction standards (S1), early warning systems (S2), public education and awareness (S3), land use planning (S4), emergency response plans (S5), international cooperation (S6), research and monitoring (S7), infrastructure resilience (S8), community preparedness (S9), and insurance and financial preparedness (S10). The evaluation involves a thorough examination against a set of criteria encompassing aspects such as effectiveness in risk reduction (C1), cost-effectiveness (C2), inclusivity and social equity (C3), adaptability and flexibility (C4), environmental impact (C5), compliance with standards and insurance uptake (C6), interagency collaboration (C7), and data utilization (C8).
The resulting criteria weights underscore their relative importance, with C1 deemed highly significant (30%), C2 and C3 moderately important (20% and 15%, respectively), and C4, C5, C6, C7, and C8 holding lesser significance (ranging from 10% to 5%).
Performance scores are assigned to rank the earthquake management strategies, revealing that A2 attains the highest score (0.45), followed by A4 (0.43), A10 (0.42), A9 (0.41), A3 (0.4), A8 (0.39), A7 (0.38), A6 (0.37), and A5 (0.35). A1 achieves a moderate score (0.32), providing valuable insights for decision-making in earthquake risk reduction.
This research underscores the pivotal role of early warning systems in earthquake management, emphasizing the significance of timely alerts, community engagement, and financial preparedness within Morocco's comprehensive risk reduction strategy. The study advocates for data-driven decision-making to enhance preparedness, response capabilities, and mitigation measures. Moreover, this research holds implications for recent seismic events, such as the magnitude 7.6 earthquake in Japan on January 1, 2024.