Numerical modelling of magmatic CO2 emissions from the Neo-Tethyan margin during the Early Cenozoic

Identifying the geological drivers of long-term climate change is key to improve our understanding of the interactions between the deep Earth and the Earth’s surface. Long-term Cenozoic climate cooling has been largely attributed to an increase in atmospheric carbon consumption by enhanced silicate weathering linked to the uplift of the Tethyan orogenic belt. Alternatively, this cooling trend has been explained by decreasing magmatic CO₂ outgassing during the progressive closure of Neo-Tethys Ocean. However, the outgassing rates associated with Neo-Tethyan magmatism remain poorly constrained, making it difficult to assess its contribution to Cenozoic climate change. Here, we present the first results of numerical geodynamic experiments aimed at obtaining improved quantitative estimates of the magmatic CO₂ outflux along the Neo-Tethyan margins. To this end, we use 2D numerical petrological-thermomechanical models of oceanic subduction and continental collision that account for partial melting and slab decarbonation. Calibrating these numerical experiments on available geological constraints from the Neo-Tethyan margin, we estimate the Neo-Tethyan magma production volumes through the Early Cenozoic. We discuss how these results are sensitive to changes in model setup and input parameters such as convergence rates, rheology, and crustal composition. To quantify the time-dependent magmatic CO₂ emissions, we combine the magma production histories with both modelling- and observation-based quantifications of the volatile contents of pre- and post-eruptive igneous rocks. Finally, we discuss the potential Neo-Tethyan magmatic forcing of Early Cenozoic climate change in light of our new results and its implications for the global carbon cycle and surface-deep Earth feedbacks.