Compound and cascading droughts and heatwaves decrease yields by more than half in Sinaloa, Mexico

Drought and heatwave events contribute to agricultural loss worldwide. The impact is further exacerbated with the occurrences of compound and cascading droughts and heatwaves. Here we present a study that evaluates the impact of compound and cascading droughts and heatwaves on Maize yield in Sinaloa Mexico, simulated using the WOFOST crop model. Drought and heatwave events were identified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3) and threshold method, respectively. Results show that significant yield reductions are found during extreme drought events, emphasizing the vulnerability of maize farming to unfavorable drought conditions. While heatwaves alone did not show a significant impact on maize yields, the compound and cascading droughts and heatwaves amplify the loss of Maize yields up to 44% compared to normal conditions. This study highlights the need for adaptive strategies in agriculture to sustain food security during extreme events, especially in the context of a multi-hazard framework.