A wind energy resource analysis in the Iberian Penindula under climate projections

The wind resource in the Iberian Peninsula has been analyzed using wind climate projections from the XX century to the end of the XXI century of the SSP5-8.5 scenario obtained from the MRI-ESM2.0 global climate numerical model. Six-hour wind speed and direction are seasonally grouped and from them, both the production of electrical power and the intensity of wind energy have been estimated throughout the temporal record. Two periods are considered in the dataset: the historical (1950 – 2014) and the future (2015-2100) periods. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test is applied to identify significant wind energy intensity trends and the non-parametric Mann-Whitney test is applied over the entire domain's all-grid points to statistically evaluate the significant differences between wind energy intensity of different time periods. For an estimation of the evolution of the electrical power throughout the XXI century, the latest generation wind turbine SG 7.0-170 from Siemens-Gamesa has been used as a reference. Considering winter as the season of maximum wind energy production, the results show a future higher electricity production compared to the selected historical period in almost the entire Iberian Peninsula, although there is a decreasing production trend throughout the century. The remainder seasonal results indicate a general drop in electrical power due to a decrease of wind resource in the whole Peninsula throughout the century, especially in autumn with significant losses of more than 2 MW of electricity production in many Portuguese areas on the western coast of the peninsula.