Approximation of nonlinear seismic processes based on space-time series of changes in seismotectonic deformation regimes

There is a growing interest among seismologists on the nonlinearity of seismic processes, corresponding to the synergetic approach to the development of the Earth as a nonlinear, open, self-organizing system. In the analysis of very complex multi-component geological-geophysical systems, it is important to assess the degree of their nonlinearity based on a set of control parameters. For the analysis of the seismic process, we propose to use seismic-tectonic stress in the Earth's crust and lithosphere as a control parameter. Also, in the analysis of processes releasing tectonic stresses in the form of earthquakes, the synergetic of choosing the initial state becomes important.

To choose the initial state of the Earth's crust and lithosphere, we consider them as an oscillatory block-hierarchical system, interconnected and developing over time but differing in various layers of the Earth's crust – sedimentary, consolidated crust, lower crust, and mantle beneath the Moho boundary, as each layer has its lithological properties and is in different physical conditions, at least due to the change in pressure. Block sizes are determined based on the thickness of the layer, and vertical planes of the block are determined based on the morphology of the layer, as well as the presence of a fault inside the block. Changes in the seismic-tectonic deformation vector indicate a change in the initial state of seismic-tectonic deformation of each block. Thus, for the analysis of the nonlinear seismic process, we obtain a continuous series of changes in seismic-tectonic stresses in different layers and for each block of the layer. Thanks to the known time of deformation changes, as well as the known size of each block, we have an approximation of the nonlinear oscillatory process in the block-hierarchical system of the Earth's crust and lithosphere, manifested as seismicity. Within the designated time interval, the seismic-tectonic deformation process in each block follows a linear law. We have tested our methodological approaches to the analysis of the nonlinear seismic process in the example of the Crimean-Black Sea region. We have processed earthquakes contained in the new catalog of seismic events for the period 1970-2012, recalculated according to the Seismological Bulletins of the USSR and Ukraine. The method of Aki was used to determine the seismic-tectonic deformation regime by constructing averages foci by the signs of the first arrivals of P-waves taken from the bulletins. Time series of changes in seismic-tectonic deformation regimes in different layers of the Earth's crust and lithosphere show that each layer has its peculiarities of deformation but fits into the general context of tectonic processes in the region. One of the interesting features of the tectonic process in the region turned out to be the unexpected variability of regimes and their duration from 2 to 10 years in different areas of the Crimean-Black Sea region. An important consequence of our study is the definition of clear spatial-temporal frameworks for the analysis of the amounts of seismic energy release in each of the blocks, which will improve the quality of seismic risk assessment for individual regions.