Changes in Solar and Wind Power Generation Potentials over South Korea under Future Global Warming.

This study presents the impact of climate change on the wind and solar power generation potentials over South Korea considering ensemble projections from downscaled high-resolution bias-corrected future climate change scenario data. Under future global warming, solar power potentials over South Korea are projected to decrease in spring (March-May) and winter (December-February) seasons relative to present climate in the late 21st century (2081-2100), particularly showing a relatively large decrease in the northern part of South Korea. The decrease tendency is more significant and larger in the high-CO2 emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) than the low-CO2 emission scenario (SSP2-4.5). The projected decrease in solar power potential in spring is mainly due to increased air temperature by future global warming and the decrease in winter is attributable to the projected increase in the air temperature and the decrease in solar radiation at the surface. Wind power potentials which are estimated with the wind energy density is generally projected to decrease with future global warming in all seasons except for summer. This decrease tendency is also larger in the late 21st century of the SSP5-8.5 scenario, especially over the southern part of South Korea in winter and spring and over the northern part in fall. These results may help optimize the regional renewable energy generation system development and plans