August 2023 Slovenian flood anatomy from national seismometer network data analysis

Excessive and sustained rainfall can trigger regional floods with a large propagation range. Their non-linear onset, rapid evolution and massive impact make prediction, mitigation and posteriour anatomy efforts difficult.

The atmospheric low “Petar” that struck Europe in early August 2023 was one drastic example of such flood triggering rain events. It was able to gain abundant moisture and heat over an exceptionally warm Mediterranean Sea, before it moved to continental Europe, crossing Slovenia, Austria, and Germany. It caused severe flooding as a result of locally more than 350 mm rain within less than two days. We focus on Slovenian examples, where the event was perceived the most devastating natural hazard in the last decades.

Here, we follow a seismic approach to study the spatially contrasting effects of the rain signal from available FDSN data (SL network). We study the time variant spectral signatures of reaches in steep mountain, graded upland and wide basin landscapes across northern Slovenia and exemplarily invert the seismic data for key flood parameters: water level and debris flux, and propagation velocity. We discuss the detection range of existing earthquake seismometer networks and the potential to improve those with respect to flood quantification. Our analysis highlights the compound effects of channel geometry, event magnitude and network density for flood detection and signature consistency.