Source analysis of the 2022 Nord Stream and 2023 Balticconnector underwater explosions

On 26 September 2022 two seismic events near the Danish island of Bornholm in the Baltic Sea were detected. The first event with a magnitude Mw 2.3 occurred at 00:03 UTC 40 km east-southeast of Bornholm. The determined location and the origin time of the event are consistent with data of the pressure decrease on one of the Nord Stream 2 pipelines. Another sequence of events occurred 17 hours later at 17:03 UTC around 60 km north-east of Bornholm with a maximum magnitude of Mw 2.7. It consists of three closely successive, but separable, single events. Using relative localisation methods and the gas pressure inside the pipeline recorded at the landing site in Germany, we can assign the epicentres of the three events to the locations of the leaks in the pipelines of Nord Stream 1 and 2.

Based on comparable events in the region, which include both tectonic earthquakes and explosions, the explosive character of the investigated Nord Stream events can be verified. Infrasound signals associated with the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines were recorded at two stations (I26DE in the Bavarian Forest and IKUDE near Kühlungsborn) in Germany. Particularly after the event sequence at 17:03 UTC, distinctive signals were registered whose characteristics indicate an explosive event with subsequent gas leakage at the surface.

Our modelling of the sources shows that the measured seismic signals can sufficiently be explained by the instantaneous gas release. Synthetic seismograms for such a source and a subsurface model adapted for the study area show high consistency with the measured signals. Based on the released energy and the characteristics of the recorded waveforms, we conclude that the impulsive gas release from the burst gas pipes constitutes the dominant part of the signal source. The model places an upper limit of approximately 50 kg TNT equivalent on the yield of the chemical explosive component of the events, but we note that smaller yields may also be consistent with the data.

We also carried out an analysis of the seismic signals of the event on the Balticconnector pipeline between Finland and Estonia on 8 October 2023 and found that again the instantaneous gas release can sufficiently explain the observed data. This supports a possible mechanical cause of the damage.