The current and future state of mountain permafrost in the Eastern Italian Alps: the RETURN project

The present climate change is affecting geomorphic processes and landforms related to mountain permafrost in alpine areas. Impressive expressions of permafrost degradation include significant ground surface warming of rock glaciers, a general acceleration of rock-glacier surface-flow velocity, and rapid gravitational mass movements in steep terrains. In this context, the interest in mountain permafrost conditions in the Eastern Italian Alps is growing, in view of the possible consequences in terms of natural hazard assessment and mitigation, and of management of water resources. Therefore, there is a great need to assess the current and future changes of geomorphological processes and landform evolution related to degrading permafrost in this region.

Here, we present the study approach and preliminary results of the ongoing project RETURN, which is an Extended Partnership funded by the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005). Our research group is working on the current and projected impacts of climate change on the alpine cryosphere of the Eastern Italian Alps. The activities of this project, which is focussing on the area of the Province of Trento, are aimed at: i) understanding the current local and regional permafrost state and distribution, ii) modelling the distribution and state of permafrost in future warming scenarios, and iii) determining whether the ongoing permafrost degradation is causing an increase of slope instability in terms of frequency and magnitude. These aims are accomplished by using a multidisciplinary approach that comprises a) photogrammetric analyses aimed at reconstructing interannual variations and possible acceleration of rock glacier kinematics, b) geophysics aimed at estimating the volume of permafrost in active and pseudo-relict rock glaciers, c) ground-surface temperature monitoring aimed at modelling the  conditions of permafrost at local and regional scale, and d) geomorphological analyses of areas affected by landslides induced by permafrost degradation.

The results of the RETURN project are expected to contribute to a better understanding of ongoing processes and similar issues in other mountain areas affected by warming and degrading permafrost.