Fluid driven seismic cycle modelling in subduction zones

The role of fluid flow in triggering earthquakes in subduction zones is a critical yet complex aspect in seismology. Despite extensive study through geological, geophysical observations, and laboratory experiments, fully understanding and modelling these processes within a coupled solid-fluid interaction framework remain challenging. This study employs a coupled seismo-hydro-mechanical code (i2elvisp) to simulate fluid-driven earthquake sequences in a simplified subduction megathrust environment. We incorporate non-uniform grid resolution, enhancing the resolution of seismic events within the subduction channel. The code integrates solid rock deformation with fluid dynamics, solving mass and momentum conservation equations for both phases, alongside gravity and temperature-dependent viscosity effects. Brittle/plastic deformation is modelled through a rate-dependent strength formulation, with slip instabilities governed by compaction-induced pore fluid pressurisation. Our approach demonstrates the significant impact of fluid pressurisation on deformation localization, achieving slip rates up to metres per second in a fully compressible poro-visco-elasto-plastic medium. By refining the vertical model resolution in the subduction channel to less than or equal to 200 metres, we ensure convergence in terms of event recurrence interval and slip velocity. The models successfully replicate various slip modes observed in nature, ranging from regular earthquakes (including partial and full ruptures) to transient slow slip phenomena and aseismic creep. This research focuses on the parameters influencing the dominant slip mode, their distributions, and interactions along a modelled subduction interface. Our findings indicate that the dominant slip mode and the earthquake sequences are significantly influenced by porosity, permeability, and temperature-dependent viscosity. We explore two distinct viscosity gradients in the subduction channel to represent subduction zones with differing thermal profiles. In 'hot' subduction models, the brittle-ductile transition commences at shallower depths than in 'cold' subduction cases, influencing the nucleation depth of seismic events. These viscosity variations markedly impact model evolution; regular earthquakes exhibit higher velocities and slip rates in 'hot' scenarios, which are also more conducive to hosting aseismic creep or slow slip events. In conclusion, our study elucidates the pivotal role of fluid pressure evolution in seismicity within subduction zones and provides deeper insights into earthquake source processes. Through comprehensive modelling and analysis, we enhance understanding of the complex dynamics governing fluid-induced seismic activity and contribute to the broader field of earthquake source processes.