Limnogeological investigations of the Montiggler Seen (South Tyrol, Italy) reveal paleoshaking evidence caused by surface rupturing earthquake in the Southern European Alps

Assessing the hazard of extraordinary strong earthquakes in slowly deforming intraplate regions such as the European Alps is difficult, due to a lack of information on their occurrence. They are characterized by long recurrence intervals and identifying the source faults is difficult. However, on-fault evidence of a surface rupturing earthquake in the eastern Southern Alps was indicated by an archeoseismological study of Galadini and Galli (1999) in Egna (South Tyrol, Italy), which is in an area of low recent seismic activity. Displaced walls of a Roman Age building and paleoseismic trenches revealed the rupture of a NNE-SSW striking fault, which is dated to the 3^rd century CE. To test the hypothesis, this lacustrine paleoseismology study aims to find evidence of ground shaking in the sediments of Kleiner Montiggler See, a lake located only 10 km from the archeological site. Multiproxy analysis of sediment cores reveals an event layer at a depth between 64 and 69 cm below the lake floor. It is characterized by a sharp base, high density, grainsize oscillations within a normal grading trend, a high amount of detrital material and a decrease in organic matter, compared to the background sediment. After evaluating and finally excluding many possible processes that could have induced the deposit, it can be concluded that a seismic seiche caused bottom currents, resuspending sediment and eroding material from the shore that finally got deposited as an outstanding event deposit in the deeper parts of the basin. According to our ¹⁴C based age-depth model, the event layer occurred between 8 and 450 years CE (95% probability range; mean age 222 CE), therefore supporting the hypothesis of the Roman Age surface rupture at the Egna site. This is the only event of this type recorded in the lake sediments of Kleiner Montiggler See in the last ~5000 years.  A minimum macroseismic intensity (EMS-98) of VII at the lake was estimated for the ground motion caused by the Egna fault rupture. This was done by investigating the sedimentological characteristics of the event layer, as well as considering negative evidence for other large, historical earthquakes and possible long-term catchment response recorded in the sediments. By applying an intensity prediction equation, a minimum estimated magnitude (M_i) of 6.2 ± 0.5 was derived. Due to negative evidence in Lake Ledro (63 km SW of Egna) at this timing, a maximum magnitude of 6.0 ± 0.5 was estimated. Therefore, we conclude that the magnitude of this event was most likely between 5.7 and 6.5. This study indicates that extraordinary strong and thus hazardous earthquakes can occur in areas of low recent seismic activity. It therefore provides important information for improving seismic hazard assessment and the estimation of the maximum credible earthquake in South Tyrol.