Investigating the human-water dynamics leading to increased drought and flood risk in Kitui, Kenya.

During the past decades, the county of Kitui in Kenya, has experienced severe droughts. Both rain seasons have failed for several years in a row. While the region is known for its aridity and the droughts it experiences, the region also experiences regular flooding. Both drought and flood events have had devastating impacts, leading to widespread water and food insecurity. In this study, we developed a system-dynamics model to investigate the interplay between drought and flood risk and how this is influenced by human-water interactions. We model the system’s hydrology, as well as drought and flood impacts and human actions and adaptation. We aim to estimate model parameters using hydrological and impact data and fit the model to the case study areas. The fitted model is used to investigate changes in drought and flood risk over the years and how these vary across three different case study areas. We investigate how both climatic drivers and human actions and responses to the changing environment influence drought and flood risk. This analysis provides insights into the main drivers of drought and flood risk and the model allows for an exploration of the policies and measures that could be implemented to reduce risk in the future.