Ensemble analogue methodology for the forecast of turbulent properties in the solar wind

The solar wind is a plasma which is known to be highly turbulent. The subsequent non-linear cascades of, for instance, energy influence the behaviour at a wide range of scales of the observable quantities, such as the magnetic field and velocity. The small-scale behaviour can be seen as an a priori predictable “noise” that could impact space weather forecasts. Such an impact is usually neglected because the resolution of solar wind forecast models is not sufficient, due to computational limitations. As a first step in the turbulent-oriented improvement of space weather forecasts, we have tackled the question of how predictable different aspects of the small-scale turbulence in the solar wind are. We have used the ensemble analogue methodology, which assumes that future events are predictable based on what has happened in the past, and test this on the solar wind turbulence properties. We will discuss our results in terms of their implications for solar wind and space weather forecasting.