Examining the temporospatial patterns of thermal risk for the elderly in an aging rural area in Taiwan

In recent years, the escalation of climate change has led to a discernible increase in occurrences of extreme heat events, subjecting individuals to heightened and more recurrent heat stress. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced among socioeconomically disadvantaged populations, the elderly, and other vulnerable groups. Prolonged exposure to elevated temperatures has been identified as a significant factor contributing to adverse health outcomes within these demographics. Concurrently, alterations in land use and land cover (LULC) exert a notable influence on the thermal environment. While rural areas experience relatively modest changes in land use compared to urban counterparts, the expansion of non-vegetative zones in these regions still engenders temperature fluctuations. 

This study endeavors to ascertain the spatial-temporal characteristics of the thermal environment and heat-related comfort levels in aging rural areas, a facet that has been largely overlooked in prior research. The focal area of investigation is Yunlin County in Taiwan, a pivotal agricultural region characterized by a noteworthy aging demographic. The research methodology involves an analysis of the spatial distribution of meteorological parameters to discern the thermal landscape in Yunlin. Additionally, a thermal comfort index, Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET), is employed to gauge the impact of spatial characteristics on human comfortability within this aging rural enclave. LULC data are acquired through supervised classification of remote sensing images. The computation of PET and associated parameters in the Yunlin region is facilitated by the Python package, Pythermalcomfort. 

The analysis reveals thermal comfort and environmental conditions for the elderly in Yunlin, identifying specific hotspots and periods characterized by elevated PET. Notably, the influence of LULC on thermal conditions is discerned, with built-up and bare soil areas exhibiting elevated temperatures. Furthermore, projections of future scenarios indicate an escalating trend of discomfort for the elderly, manifesting in a heightened frequency of PET exceeding 42°C. The study also undertakes an exposure analysis to identify individuals susceptible to heat injuries under diverse scenarios. Ultimately, a set of preventive measures and recommendations are delineated, encompassing the augmentation of green spaces, provision of adequate shading, identification of cooler areas during heatwaves, and scheduling physically demanding activities during cooler hours (between 4:00 and 7:00). In summation, this research utilizes PET to pinpoint high-risk periods and locations for aging rural areas in Yunlin during the summer, with the overarching aim of furnishing valuable insights into heat-related risks.