Spatio-temporal evolution of Land Use Land Cover and hydrological components in the Lake Kivu catchment, Rwanda.

The African Great Lakes Region has experienced substantial Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) over the last decades, significantly impacting landscapes and ecosystems. The main drivers of LULCC in the region involve a complex interplay of political, economic, and socio-demographic factors. This study focused on the Lake Kivu catchment in Rwanda, a critical ecosystem in the African Great Lakes Regions, exploring both historical and future LULC scenarios. The methodology involved supervised image classification using seasonal composites and integrating spectral indices with topographic features to capture dynamic seasonal variations. Historical LULCC analysis showed significant changes, particularly the first decade of the study (1990-2000) marked by substantial forest loss (from 26.6% to 18.7%) and a notable increase in agricultural land (from 27.7% to 43%). These changes were attributed to conflicts in the region and population movements. Subsequent decades (2000-2010 and 2010-2020) witnessed marked forest recovery (24.8% by 2020) and a balance between agricultural increase and loss, reflecting Rwanda's commitment to environmental conservation. Additionally, a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network was employed to predict future LULC scenarios, considering natural and socio-economic explanatory variables with historical LULC transitions. The predicted future LULC for 2030 and 2050 indicate distinct trajectories influenced by factors like political will, demographic trends, and socio-economic developments. By integrating the observed historical trends and predicted future LULC, along with climate scenarios, this study will use a hydrological model to understand the impacts of these changes on the catchment’s hydrological components. Providing essential insights for policy and strategic planning, we explore how the intricate dynamics of water-related ecosystem services are influenced by LULC and climate changes, with the ultimate goal of harmonizing ecological sustainability with socio-economic development in the Lake Kivu catchment and similar environments.