Heat transfer modeling in karst environments to study the impact of climate change on the future of decorated caves

The effects of global warming have already been recorded in many decorated caves located in karst systems, and some prehistoric paintings are already deteriorating. Modeling the microclimate of caves under various climate change scenarios will enable to adapt the conservation strategy for rock art heritage.

The first step in this modeling approach is to simulate heat transfer from the surface to the cave through the soil/epikarst/karst system. The rock characteristics in the model are calibrated using sensor data taken at various depths in the soil and in the karst over a few years, and in the cave thanks to long-term monitoring. To provide long-term climate forcing, a transfer function is established between meteorological data measured at a height of 2 meters by Météo France and the temperature measured at the ground surface.

Then, this heat transfer model is fed with projections from regional climate downscaling models. This modeling approach, which integrates both current data and climate projections, will be a significant step towards the effective management and conservation of decorated caves, which are not only geological wonders but also hold critical historical and archaeological significance.