Short-range forecasting and monitoring of heavy rainfall induced hazards and risks: surface water floods, flash-floods, and geomorphic hazards
Convener:
Clàudia Abancó
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Co-conveners:
Olivier Payrastre,
Pierre Javelle,
Daniela Peredo Ramirez,
Shinju Park
Improving the anticipation of such hazards is crucial for efficient crisis management. However, many challenges still exist regarding their temporal and spatial predictability. On one hand, the fast evolution of triggering rainfall events, the lack of appropriate observations, the high variability and non-linearity in the physical processes can induce a lot of uncertainty. On the other hand, the coexistence of several hazards, the high variability of societal exposure, as well as the complexity of societal vulnerability make it very challenging to assess the overall potential risks.
This session aims to illustrate current advances in monitoring, modeling, and short-range forecasting of all heavy rainfall induced hazards and risks (e.g., surface water floods, flash-floods, and geomorphic hazards). Contributions on the following scientific themes are specifically expected:
- Monitoring and nowcasting of heavy precipitation events based on radar and remote sensing (satellite, lightning, ..), to complement rain gauge networks.
- Short-range (0-6h) heavy precipitation forecasting based on Numerical Weather Prediction models, with a focus on seamless forecasting strategies, and ensembles for the representation of uncertainties.
- Understanding and modeling of surface water floods, flash floods, and geomorphic processes, at appropriate space-time scales.
- Development of integrated hydro-meteorological forecasting chains and new modeling approaches for predicting short-rainfall-induced hazards in gauged and ungauged basins.
- New direct and indirect (proxy data) observation techniques and strategies for the observation or monitoring of rainfall-induced-hazards, and the validation of forecasting approaches.
- Risk modeling and forecasting approaches, including inundation mapping, damages modeling, and/or other impact-based approaches.
- Assessing changes of rainfall induced hazards due to the coexistence with other types of hazards (e.g. forest fires).
- Early warning systems for rainfall-induced hazards and their verification.
08:30–08:35
5-minute convener introduction
08:35–08:37
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EGU24-407
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
08:37–08:39
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PICOA.1
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EGU24-5139
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ECS
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On-site presentation
08:39–08:41
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PICOA.2
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EGU24-7639
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On-site presentation
08:43–08:45
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PICOA.4
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EGU24-15119
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ECS
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On-site presentation
08:45–08:47
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PICOA.5
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EGU24-1734
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ECS
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On-site presentation
08:47–08:49
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PICOA.6
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EGU24-10666
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ECS
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On-site presentation
08:49–08:51
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PICOA.7
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EGU24-3652
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ECS
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On-site presentation
08:51–08:53
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PICOA.8
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EGU24-2485
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ECS
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On-site presentation
08:53–08:55
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PICOA.9
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EGU24-6111
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ECS
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On-site presentation
08:55–08:57
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PICOA.10
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EGU24-8697
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On-site presentation
08:57–08:59
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PICOA.11
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EGU24-10524
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ECS
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On-site presentation
08:59–09:01
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PICOA.12
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EGU24-12249
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
09:01–09:03
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PICOA.13
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EGU24-12956
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ECS
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
09:03–09:05
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PICOA.14
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EGU24-17162
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
09:05–10:15
Interactive presentations at PICO screens