AS3.13 | Volcano-climate impacts and the stratospheric aerosol layer
Volcano-climate impacts and the stratospheric aerosol layer
Co-sponsored by SPARC-SSiRC and CMIP6-VolMIP
Convener: Graham Mann | Co-conveners: Myriam Khodri, Matthew Toohey, Claudia Timmreck
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room 1.85/86
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 18 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X5
Orals |
Wed, 16:15
Thu, 10:45
Volcanic aerosol clouds from major tropical eruptions cause periods of strong surface cooling in the historical climate record and are dominant influences within decadal surface temperature trends. Advancing our understanding of the influence of volcanoes on climate relies upon better knowledge of:

(i) the radiative forcings of past eruptions and the microphysical, chemical and dynamical processes which affect the evolution of stratospheric aerosol properties and

(ii) the response mechanisms governing post-eruption climate variability and their dependency on the climate state at the time of the eruption.

This can only be achieved by combining information from satellite and in-situ observations of recent eruptions, stratospheric aerosol and climate modelling activities, and reconstructions of past volcanic histories and post-eruption climate state from proxies.
In recent years the smoke from intense wildfires in North America and Australia has also been an important component of the stratospheric aerosol layer, the presence of organic aerosol and meteoric particles in background conditions now also firmly established.

This session seeks presentations from research aimed at better understanding the stratospheric aerosol layer, its volcanic perturbations and the associated impacts on climate through the post-industrial period (1750-present) and also those further back in the historical record.

Observational and model studies on the stratosphere and climate impacts from the 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga are also especially welcomed.

We also welcome contributions to understand the societal impacts of volcanic eruptions and the human responses to them. Contributions addressing volcanic influences on atmospheric composition, such as changes in stratospheric water vapour, ozone and other trace gases are also encouraged.

The session aims to bring together research contributing to several current international co-ordinated activities: SPARC-SSiRC, CMIP7-VolMIP, CMIP7-PMIP, and PAGES-VICS.

Orals: Wed, 17 Apr | Room 1.85/86

Chairpersons: Graham Mann, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck
Hunga Tonga & strat-aerosol layer (sub-session 1 of 2)
16:15–16:25
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EGU24-8370
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ECS
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Xin Zhou, Saffron Heddell, Sandip Dhomse, Wuhu Feng, Graham Mann, Hugh Pumphrey, Brian Kerridge, Barry Latter, Richard Siddans, Lucy Ventress, Richard Querel, Penny Smale, Elizabeth Asher, Emrys Hall, Slimane Bekki, and Martyn Chipperfield

The January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) injected a huge amount (~150 Tg) of water vapour (H2O) into the stratosphere, along with small amount of sulfur dioxide (SO2). Following slow transport in the meridional Brewer-Dobson circulation, the additional H2O is now distributed throughout the stratosphere. Here we use an off-line 3-D chemical transport model (CTM) to study the residence time of this excess H2O and its impact on polar ozone depletion. The model results are compared to satellite data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), and to balloon-borne measurements from Scott Base (77.8oS).

Simulations with the TOMCAT/SLIMCAT CTM successfully reproduce the spread of the injected H2O through late 2023 (at time of writing) as observed by MLS. Dehydration in the 2023 Antarctic polar vortex caused the first substantial (~20 Tg) removal of HTHH H2O from the stratosphere. The CTM indicates that this process will dominate removal of HTHH H2O for the coming years, giving an overall e-folding timescale of 4 years; around 25 Tg of the injected H2O is predicted to still remain in the stratosphere by 2030.

We have diagnosed the additional H2O chemical impacts on stratospheric ozone throughout the simulation, with a focus on the 2023 Antarctic ozone hole. Following relatively low Antarctic column ozone in midwinter 2023 due to transport effects, additional springtime depletion due to H2O-related chemistry was small and maximised at the vortex edge (10 DU in column). Effective dehydration in the core of the vortex limited the impact of the additional H2O.

We will also discuss the HTHH-H2O impacts on ozone depletion in the forthcoming 2024 springtime Arctic vortex. This will be the first Arctic winter with likely substantial HTHH enhancement of lower stratospheric H2O. As dehydration is rare in the Arctic, there is the possibility of differing impacts compared to the Antarctic through the persistence of the enhanced H2O at the pole.

How to cite: Zhou, X., Heddell, S., Dhomse, S., Feng, W., Mann, G., Pumphrey, H., Kerridge, B., Latter, B., Siddans, R., Ventress, L., Querel, R., Smale, P., Asher, E., Hall, E., Bekki, S., and Chipperfield, M.: Impact of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai water vapour on polar vortex dehydration and ozone depletion: Antarctic 2023 and Arctic 2024, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8370, 2024.

16:25–16:35
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EGU24-11683
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Matthias Stocker, Andrea K. Steiner, Florian Ladstädter, Ulrich Foelsche, and William Randel

The massive eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcano in 2022 not only set a record for plume height, transporting aerosols and water vapor up to an altitude of more than 50 km into the mesosphere, it also resulted in a substantial stratospheric aerosol optical depth perturbation and previously unobserved hydration of the stratosphere. These disturbances are expected to persist for several years, affecting stratospheric circulation, composition, and dynamics.

Our study investigates the stratospheric temperature signals of the HTHH eruption and their separation from the broader stratospheric variability. Using high-resolution satellite observations, we focus on the lower and middle stratosphere in the tropical and mid-latitudes for the period from January 2022 until June 2023. Within the early post eruption plume we find a pronounced temperature dipole structure that follows the vertical evolution of water vapor and aerosols. In addition, we find persistent long-lived cooling of up to -4 K in the middle tropical and subtropical stratosphere. The cooling pattern closely corresponds to the distribution of water vapor from the months post-eruption to mid-2023. We anticipate that this negative anomaly has implications for stratospheric circulation and composition, especially ozone levels.

Our results provide new insights into the localized temperature changes shortly after the eruption and the short-term stratospheric climate signals. We are confident that our results will be useful for testing simulation results against observational analyses in future modeling studies.

How to cite: Stocker, M., Steiner, A. K., Ladstädter, F., Foelsche, U., and Randel, W.: Observed Impacts of the Hunga Tonga Eruption on Stratospheric Temperature, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11683, 2024.

16:35–16:45
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EGU24-7997
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Corinna Kloss, Gwenaël Berthet, Pasquale Sellitto, Bernard Legras, Jean-Paul Vernier, Jean-Baptiste Renard, Fabrice Jégou, Paul Konopka, and Felix Plöger

Using a combination of satellite, ground-based and in-situ observations, we quantify and compare the impact of the most recent moderate volcanic eruptions and extreme fire events (volcanic eruptions: Ambae, Vanuatu in July 2018; Raikoke, Russia and Ulawun, New Guinea in June 2019; extreme fire events: Canadian fires 2017 and Australian fires 2019/2020) on the global stratospheric aerosol layer and climate.

A particular focus is set on the Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha’apai (Tonga islands) eruption of January 2022, which was exceptional especially in terms of water injection into the stratosphere. However, even the observed peak global average stratospheric aerosol optical depth exceeded that of the strongest stratospheric aerosol events of the last decade by a factor of more than 2.

Since the eruption, we performed multiple measurement campaigns with Optical Particle Counters (POPS and LOAC) to study the aerosol optical properties of the freshly injected plume and its long-term evolution in terms of microphysical properties. The fresh plume consisted mostly of small (<1 µm in size), sulfate particles; the aged stratospheric plume 9 months after the eruption started showing the formation of a second aerosol mode of larger particles (at around 1 µm). The results of an additional campaign in the Southern hemisphere (February/March 2024, 2 years after the eruption) will also be presented.

Furthermore, during regular balloon borne aerosol observations we found evidence of plume transport towards the Northern Hemisphere with in situ observations in Europe.

How to cite: Kloss, C., Berthet, G., Sellitto, P., Legras, B., Vernier, J.-P., Renard, J.-B., Jégou, F., Konopka, P., and Plöger, F.: Impact of Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha’apai eruption on the global stratospheric aerosol layer in comparison with other eruptions and extreme fire events of the past decade , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7997, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7997, 2024.

16:45–16:55
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EGU24-3625
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On-site presentation
Charles Brock, Ming Lyu, Adam Ahern, Gregory Schill, Michael Lawler, Maya Abou-Ghanem, Daniel Murphy, Colin Gurganus, Troy Thornberry, Fred Moore, Eric Hintsa, Bradley Hall, and Geoff Dutton

The stratospheric aerosol layer plays an essential role in stratospheric chemical and radiative processes. Emissions of SO2 from small-to-midsized volcanic eruptions are typically introduced into the lower stratosphere, where a background aerosol already exists. The radiative and chemical consequences of these eruptive emissions depend in part upon the characteristics of these background particles, whose number originates from the troposphere. In-situ observations of sub-0.1 µm diameter particles in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere are rare, but are of particular importance in understanding the contribution of upwelling ultrafine particles formed near the tropical tropopause and their subsequent evolution in the stratospheric (Brewer-Dobson) circulation.

In the  Stratospheric Aerosol processes, Budget and Radiative Effects (SABRE) mission from January to March 2023, we used three particle sizing instruments on the NASA WB-57 high-altitude aircraft to measure the size distribution of aerosol particles in the size range from 0.003 to ~4.0 μm in the lower stratosphere from middle to high latitudes at altitudes up to 19.6 km. The composition of individual aerosol particles >0.1 µm was also measured, along with O3, N2O, SF6 and OCS. Together, these measurements were used to investigate dynamical and chemical processes in the stratosphere that determine the evolution of the stratospheric aerosol as a function of stratospheric age up to several years. We observed a clear bimodal size distribution structure, with a small mode (< 0.1 μm diameter) originating from the troposphere and a larger mode (>0.2 µm diameter) originating from the photolysis of OCS (the classic Junge, or stratospheric, aerosol layer). These two modes evolve as a function of stratospheric age in a manner consistent with coagulation, condensation, and sedimentation. These are the first reported observations of the presence and evolution of this bimodal aerosol structure deep into the stratosphere. The small (tropospheric) particle mode provides a significant condensation sink at young stratospheric ages. SO2 from modest volcanic eruptions emitted into the lower stratosphere may condense on these smaller particles, reducing the amount of light scattering per unit mass. Proposed geoengineering efforts must also account for this tropospheric mode of particles. Models simulating aerosol processes in the stratosphere need to accurately represent tropospheric particles in the lower stratosphere and their evolution with stratospheric age.

How to cite: Brock, C., Lyu, M., Ahern, A., Schill, G., Lawler, M., Abou-Ghanem, M., Murphy, D., Gurganus, C., Thornberry, T., Moore, F., Hintsa, E., Hall, B., and Dutton, G.: A Significant Mode of Small, Tropospheric Particles in the Lower Stratosphere, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3625, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3625, 2024.

16:55–17:05
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EGU24-1987
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On-site presentation
Mathieu Colombier, Ingrid A. Ukstins, Susann Tegtmeier, Bettina Scheu, Shane J. Cronin, Simon Thivet, Joali Paredes‑Mariño, Corrado Cimarelli, Kai-Uwe Hess, Taaniela Kula, Folauhola H. Latu’ila, and Donald B. Dingwell

The 15 January 2022 submarine eruption at Hunga volcano was the most explosive volcanic eruption in 140 years. It involved exceptional magma and seawater interaction throughout the entire submarine caldera collapse. The submarine volcanic jet breached the sea surface and formed a subaerial eruptive plume that transported volcanic ash, gas, sea salts and seawater up to ~ 57 km, reaching into the mesosphere. We document high concentrations of sea salts in volcanic ash collected shortly after deposition. We discuss the potential climatic consequences of large-scale injection of salts into the upper atmosphere during submarine eruptions. Sodium chloride in these volcanic plumes can reach extreme concentrations, and dehalogenation of chlorides and bromides poses the risk of long-term atmospheric and weather impact. We also discuss high concentrations of Ca-sulfates, originating from both seawater-ash interaction and gas scavenging of SO2 within ash aggregates. The discrepancy between the SO2 measured by satellites and values expected from degassing may be explained by a combination of such SO2 uptake and additional SO2 release to the sea via passive degassing prior to the eruption or with ejecta in submarine gravity currents. The balance between salt loading into the atmosphere versus deposition in ash aggregates is a key factor in understanding the atmospheric and climatic consequences of submarine eruptions.

How to cite: Colombier, M., Ukstins, I. A., Tegtmeier, S., Scheu, B., Cronin, S. J., Thivet, S., Paredes‑Mariño, J., Cimarelli, C., Hess, K.-U., Kula, T., Latu’ila, F. H., and Dingwell, D. B.: Atmosphere injection of sea salts during the 15 January 2022 submarine eruption of Hunga volcano, Tonga, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1987, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1987, 2024.

17:05–17:10
Volcanic impacts on climate (sub-session 2 of 2)
17:10–17:20
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EGU24-12893
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Andrea Burke, Michael Sigl, Jihong Cole-Dai, Helen Innes, Joe McConnell, Charlotte Pearson, and Patrick Sugden

Extratropical eruptions have been associated with major cooling in the Northern Hemisphere over the last 2000 years (Toohey et al., 2019; Burke et al., 2023).  However, our ability to reconstruct the stratospheric aerosol loading from these events is limited by uncertainties in the conversion of sulfate flux to the polar ice sheets into a stratospheric sulfur loading or aerosol optical depth. Current methods (e.g. Gao et al. 2007; Toohey and Sigl, 2017) assume that all of the ice core sulfate from these eruptions is deposited via the stratospheric overworld, but sulfur isotope evidence shows that a substantial proportion of ice core sulfate comes via lower altitudes. Here we evaluate the magnitude of this complication across many of the major extratropical eruptions over the last several thousand years, including eruptions from the Katmai/Novarupta, Aniakchak, and Okmok volcanoes, and investigate the implications of these findings for stratospheric aerosol forcing records currently used in climate models.

 

 

Burke, A., Innes, H.M., Crick, L., Anchukaitis, K.J., Byrne, M.P., Hutchison, W., McConnell, J.R., Moore, K.A., Rae, J.W., Sigl, M. and Wilson, R., 2023. High sensitivity of summer temperatures to stratospheric sulfur loading from volcanoes in the Northern Hemisphere. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences120(47), p.e2221810120.

Gao, C., Oman, L., Robock, A. and Stenchikov, G.L., 2007. Atmospheric volcanic loading derived from bipolar ice cores: Accounting for the spatial distribution of volcanic deposition. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres112(D9).

Toohey, M. and Sigl, M., 2017. Volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth from 500 BCE to 1900 CE. Earth System Science Data9(2), pp.809-831.

Toohey, M., Krüger, K., Schmidt, H., Timmreck, C., Sigl, M., Stoffel, M. and Wilson, R., 2019. Disproportionately strong climate forcing from extratropical explosive volcanic eruptions. Nature Geoscience12(2), pp.100-107.

How to cite: Burke, A., Sigl, M., Cole-Dai, J., Innes, H., McConnell, J., Pearson, C., and Sugden, P.: Reconstructing Stratospheric Aerosol Loadings from Extratropical Eruptions, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12893, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12893, 2024.

17:20–17:30
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EGU24-19317
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ECS
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Herman Fuglestvedt, Imogen Gabriel, Michael Sigl, Þorvaldur Þórðarson, and Kirstin Krüger

The episodic eruption of Eldgjá in the 10th century stands as the largest basaltic flood lava eruption on Earth during the Common Era. The eruption released an estimated 200 Tg of sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere, a substantial emission that likely had severe impacts on the climate and environment. Various sources, including observations of haze over Europe, a minimum in tree ring temperature reconstructions, and suppressed flow of the Nile, suggest that the eruption had both regional and global effects.

Petrological evidence from Iceland quantifies the sulphur and halogen emissions from the eruption site, and subsequent deposition is recorded in high-resolution Greenland ice cores. Additionally, recent analyses of Greenland cryptotephra have shed light on the eruption’s date and duration (Hutchison et al., JGR under revision).

In combination, these constraints provide valuable information about the nature of the eruption, but they do not directly quantify its climate forcing or environmental effects. Furthermore, reconciling the petrological and ice core constraints with proxies of Eldgjá's impacts presents a puzzle.

To bridge this gap, we constructed a plausible volcanic forcing, combining the most recent and available volcanology and ice core records, and used a fully-coupled Earth system model to simulate the Eldgjá eruption. We simulate the volcanic aerosol and atmospheric composition changes resulting from long-lasting, stratospheric and tropospheric emissions of sulphur, chlorine, bromine, and fluorine in a pre-industrial Earth system.

Our results help improve our understanding of the climate effects of prolonged Icelandic eruptions, and offer clues about the potential effects of the Eldgjá eruption on the population and environment at the time. Finally, we discuss the model results with regard to uncertainties in the volcanic forcing, experimental set-up, and the available proxy data.

How to cite: Fuglestvedt, H., Gabriel, I., Sigl, M., Þórðarson, Þ., and Krüger, K.: Modelling the 10th century Eldgjá eruption in Iceland and revisiting evidence of its climatic and environmental impacts, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19317, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19317, 2024.

17:30–17:40
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EGU24-17679
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On-site presentation
Timothy Osborn, Emily Wallis, Manoj Joshi, Michael Taylor, Ed Hawkins, Andrew Schurer, and Colin Morice

It is well-established that explosive volcanic eruptions typically lead to cooler surface temperatures in summer, but the picture in Northern Hemisphere winter is much more uncertain. Recent large, low-latitude eruptions have been followed by warm anomalies across Eurasia in winter and cold anomalies near Greenland, hypothesized to be part of a dynamical response to the volcanic forcing that drives a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). But the evidence for a dynamical, winter warming response is inconclusive because internal variability is large, many climate models do not simulate a dynamical response like this, and there are few such eruptions to study.

New datasets that allow additional eruptions from the early 19th century to be studied are therefore particularly valuable and we will present new analyses of the winters following four large eruptions in 1809, 1815, 1831 and 1835 (alongside four later eruptions in 1883, 1902, 1982 and 1991). This analysis is made possible by a new gridded instrumental dataset combining marine and land air temperatures from the 1780s onwards developed in the ongoing GloSAT project. It is supplemented by analysis of an ensemble of historically-forced simulations with UKESM1.1 initialised in 1750, also from the GloSAT project, and by two reanalyses (20CRv3 from 1806 and ModE-RA from 1421).

For the instrumental and reanalysis datasets, warming in Europe was found in the first post-eruption winter following six out of the eight cases studied, and in the second post-eruption winter in five. Similar results were found for cold anomalies near Greenland and for a positive winter NAO index.  The anomaly magnitudes for individual cases were mostly within the range of internal variability but the consistency of the response across eruptions and datasets was significant in comparison with non-volcanic winters. The UKESM1.1 simulations showed a significant response (with Eurasian winter warming, Greenland cooling and positive NAO) for only the largest eruption (Tambora), suggesting a response may require a minimum forcing strength to occur.

How to cite: Osborn, T., Wallis, E., Joshi, M., Taylor, M., Hawkins, E., Schurer, A., and Morice, C.: Do the early nineteenth century eruptions strengthen evidence for volcanically-induced Eurasian winter warming?, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17679, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17679, 2024.

17:40–17:50
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EGU24-20184
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ECS
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Johannes Meuer, Claudia Timmreck, Shih-Wei Fang, and Christopher Kadow

Deciphering past climate variations, especially distinguishing between externally forced and inherent changes, is a major challenge. While proxy data from tree rings or ice cores can validate the occurrence of significant volcanic eruptions, linking the resulting temperature patterns to specific events or their geographic sources proves difficult. In this study, we present a neural network classifier capable of identifying the presence and hemispheric location of volcanic events. Trained on summer temperature anomalies from numerical climate simulations influenced by volcanoes, our classifier shows excellent accuracy over different magnitudes and locations of volcanic activity (hit rate >92%). The shift towards using an ensemble of observational (re-)analyses successfully detects volcanic eruptions in recent decades, showing a strong correlation between the neural network predictions and the observed aerosol optical depth field. Furthermore, our analysis uncovers traces of volcanic eruptions in 19th century climate data, identifying major events such as Tambora (1815) and Krakatau (1883), as well as smaller eruptions, thereby highlighting relevant climate signals. In addition, we identify a signature indicative of a northern extratropical eruption in 1809, establishing a link with the previously unidentified event of that year, despite continuing uncertainty about its exact location. 

How to cite: Meuer, J., Timmreck, C., Fang, S.-W., and Kadow, C.: Artificial Intelligence Detects Volcanic Fingerprints in Historical Climate Records, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20184, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20184, 2024.

17:50–18:00
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EGU24-9547
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Moritz Günther, Hauke Schmidt, Claudia Timmreck, and Matthew Toohey

Stratospheric aerosol forcing causes only a small global-mean temperature change compared to CO2 forcing of equal magnitude. It has been shown that the dampened temperature response to aerosol forcing originates from enhanced surface temperature change in the tropical Indian and Western Pacific Ocean, relative to the global mean. Due to the pronounced temperature change in this “warm pool” region, strong negative feedback processes are activated. These stabilizing processes strengthen the global mean radiative feedback and abate Earth’s global mean temperature response. In comparison, CO2 forcing has a smaller effect on warm pool temperatures and therefore produces relatively weak feedback, i.e. a strong temperature change.

However, it has remained unclear why stratospheric aerosol forcing affects warm pool temperatures more strongly than CO2 forcing. We address this problem using simulations of aerosol and CO2 forcing in MPI-ESM. At the top of the atmosphere (TOA), aerosol forcing is stronger in the warm pool than in the global mean, while CO2 forcing is relatively homogeneous, which could explain the different temperature patterns. However, we find that the forcing pattern at the TOA is not sufficient to explain the aerosols’ strong influence on warm pool temperatures. The effect can only be explained when taking into account the effective forcing pattern at the surface, which is substantially different from the effective forcing at the TOA. In the case of stratospheric aerosol forcing, the stratospheric heating causes an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, which induces an enhanced energy transport from the tropics to the extratropics. Although the transport occurs in the stratosphere, it affects the troposphere and causes a strongly negative forcing at the surface of the tropics. In contrast, CO2 does not substantially affect the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and therefore the surface response is not amplified in the tropics.

Our results stress the importance of circulation adjustments for the climate response. In the case of stratospheric aerosol forcing, the troposphere is impacted by changes to the wave-driven stratospheric circulation. The accelerated Brewer-Dobson circulation affects the forcing pattern at the surface, and in consequence the pattern of surface temperatures and the climate feedback. Furthermore, we argue that the commonly used method of measuring effective forcing at the TOA is not sufficient for understanding the evolution of surface temperature patterns.

How to cite: Günther, M., Schmidt, H., Timmreck, C., and Toohey, M.: Why does stratospheric aerosol forcing strongly cool the warm pool?, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9547, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9547, 2024.

Posters on site: Thu, 18 Apr, 10:45–12:30 | Hall X5

Display time: Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–Thu, 18 Apr, 12:30
Chairpersons: Claudia Timmreck, Myriam Khodri, Matthew Toohey
X5.22
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EGU24-4739
Larry Thomason and Mahesh Kovilakam

An analysis of multiwavelength stratospheric aerosol extinction coefficient data from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II and III/ISS instruments by Thomason et al. (2021) demonstrated a coherent relationship between the perturbation in extinction coefficient in an eruption’s main aerosol layer and the wavelength dependence of that perturbation. The relationship was observed to span multiple orders of magnitude in the aerosol extinction coefficient of stratospheric impact of volcanic events. Since that publication, the 2022 eruption by Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai is noted for several unique features including its intensity and altitude of the aerosol injection. It is also among the largest eruptions since the 1991 eruption by Mt. Pinatubo. In this paper, we show that this eruption fits well into the extinction coefficient/extinction coefficient ratio space found in the previous publication. In addition, while the previous publication was focused on the peak extinction coefficient following the eruption, herein we examine how well the spatial distribution of enhanced aerosol extinction follows the simple relationship between extinction coefficient and extinction coefficient for the by Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai  eruption and those previously examined.

Thomason, L. W., Kovilakam, M., Schmidt, A., von Savigny, C., Knepp, T., and Rieger, L.: Evidence for the predictability of changes in the stratospheric aerosol size following volcanic eruptions of diverse magnitudes using space-based instruments, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1143–1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1143-2021, 2021.

How to cite: Thomason, L. and Kovilakam, M.: SAGE II and SAGE III/ISS inference of the optical perturbations caused by volcanic eruptions, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4739, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4739, 2024.

X5.23
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EGU24-3480
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ECS
Emma Axebrink, Johan Friberg, and Moa K. Sporre

Volcanic climate impact is strongly correlated with how high its effluents reach in the atmosphere. Volcanic SO2 injected into the stratosphere can have a residence time of several years, whereas injections in the troposphere only have a residence time of weeks.
We have performed simulations of the 2009 Sarychev eruption with the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6). We have compared the standard model dataset with two high-resolution datasets developed in our group to investigate the importance of utilizing highly vertically and horizontally resolved SO2 datasets. The default dataset M16 [1] used in WACCM has a vertical resolution of 1 km and is released in one latitude longitude gridbox. Our two high-vertical resolution datasets, S21-3D, and S21-1D, were created from the dataset of Sandvik et al. [2]. These datasets have a vertical resolution of 200 m, spanning from 7.6 to 18.6 km. S21-3D is distributed over several latitudes and longitudes, whereas S21-1D releases all SO2 in one latitude longitude gridbox to mimic the default dataset in WACCM.

The SO2 from S21-3D, and S21-1D is injected at a higher altitude than the M16, leading to a longer residence time for both the SO2 and the formed stratospheric aerosol. The S21-3D dataset has the highest stratospheric SO2 and SO4 concentrations of the three simulations and the concentrations peak later than the other two simulations. The results from the S21-1D dataset are similar to those from the S21-3D simulation but with slightly lower concentrations.

The simulated S21-3D AOD agrees with AOD from the space-borne lidar instrument CALIOP. In the simulation with the M16 dataset, the AOD is underestimated by >50%. The volcanic radiative forcing from the Sarychev eruption was 31% lower at the end of 2009 in the simulation with M16 compared to the simulation with S21-3D.

Our results show that the vertical resolution of SO2 injections substantially impacts the model’s ability to correctly simulate the climate effects of volcanic eruptions, especially if the SO2 is injected in the vicinity of the tropopause.

Future work will involve simulating a high vertically resolved dataset of SO2 of other volcanic eruptions since 2006.

References

[1] Mills, M. J., A. Schmidt, R. Easter, S. Solomon, D. E. Kinnison, S. J. Ghan, R. R. III Neely, D. R. Marsh, A. Conley, C. G. Bardeen, et al. (2016), Global volcanic aerosol properties derived from emissions, 1990–2014, using CESM1(WACCM), J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, 2332–2348, doi:10.1002/2015JD024290.

[2] Sandvik, O. S., Friberg, J., Sporre, M. K., and Martinsson, B. G.: Methodology to obtain highly resolved SO2 vertical profiles for representation of volcanic emissions in climate models, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 7153–7165, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7153-2021, 2021.

How to cite: Axebrink, E., Friberg, J., and Sporre, M. K.: High-resolution volcanic SO2 emissions in WACCM produce more realistic AODs, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3480, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3480, 2024.

X5.24
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EGU24-1919
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ECS
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Sujan Khanal, Matthew Toohey, Thomas Aubry, and Domenic Neufeld

The Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA) family of simple models offers an approach to the generation of stratospheric aerosol fields from estimates of volcanic emissions. EVA takes as input a time series of volcanic eruption data, including the mass of sulfur injected into the stratosphere and location of the eruptions, and outputs aerosol optical properties as a function of time, latitude, height and wavelength based on a simple box-model of stratospheric transport. These aerosol properties are tailored for use as volcanic aerosol forcing in climate models. They are also useful as general quantitative estimates of the impact of volcanic eruptions on climate. EVA version 1 was based on observations of the aerosol from the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption, while EVA_H was parameterized to improve agreement with a range of smaller magnitude eruptions observed over the 1979-2015 period, taking account of the estimated injection height of the emitted sulfur. Here, we present progress in the development of EVA version 2, which improves the fidelity of its output based on various important updates. The model accounts for bi-modal particle size distributions, in line with in-situ observations of Pinatubo aerosol plume. It can also account for the uncertainty in aerosol forcing due to the uncertainty in measurements of the refractive index of sulfuric acid solution. Further updates include implementation of a new method for incorporating injection height and its impact on aerosol growth and evolution. Improvements in the fidelity of aerosol properties is balanced with the aim of simplicity, making EVA2 well-suited for idealized model experiments as well as reconstructions of past volcanic forcing. We compare the results of EVA2 with observational data sets and quantify the impact of updates on reconstructions of volcanic forcing over periods relevant to upcoming CMIP7 experiments.

How to cite: Khanal, S., Toohey, M., Aubry, T., and Neufeld, D.: Easy Volcanic Aerosol version 2: progress toward an updated volcanic aerosol forcing generator, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1919, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1919, 2024.

X5.25
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EGU24-2141
Georgiy Stenchikov, Alex Ukhov, and Sergey Osipov

We used the regional meteorology-chemistry model WRF-Chem with bin’s sulfate aerosol microphysics to study the climate impact of the Hunga volcano eruption on January 15, 2022. We conduct simulations in the 45S-10N latitude band with periodic boundary conditions in longitude and lateral boundary conditions prescribed from ERA-Interim reanalysis that constrain meteorological fields. The spectral nudging of the horizontal wind components in the stratosphere imposes the QBO.

To simulate the Hunga volcano eruption, we injected 150 Mt of water vapor (WV) and 0.45 Mt of SO2 into the middle stratosphere at 35 km. Because of the relatively high stratospheric temperature at that altitude, about 120 Mt of water was retained in the stratosphere. The volcanic water vapor cloud was cooled by thermal radiation and, therefore, descended to 25 km in about two weeks. Both the simulated mass of the remaining WV and the altitude of the volcanic “water” layer agree with observations. The zonal mean anomaly of volcanic WV mixing ratio averaged over the 30S-10N latitude belt at 25 km exceeded 10 ppmv for two weeks after the eruption. Still, it reduced to 3-4 ppmv in three months. The global water vapor instantaneous LW radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) appears negative, reaching -0.028 W/m2. At the surface, water vapor radiative forcing is two orders of magnitude smaller than at TOA.

Volcanic SO2 was oxidized in 3-4 weeks. Sulfate aerosol's effective radius grows to 0.4 mm a month after the eruption but decreases to 0.2 m in 3-4 months. The instantaneous globally averaged radiative forcing of volcanic sulfate aerosols is about one order of magnitude stronger than TOA’s water vapor forcing, reaching -0.15 W/m2 a month after the eruption at TOA and surface.

Sulfate aerosols absorb SW and LW radiation, warming the stratosphere, but the loss of heat by thermal emission of water vapor cools the stratosphere by 1K. This cooling decreases the outgoing LW flux at TOA and the downward LW flux at the tropopause. As a result, WV's adjusted global LW radiative forcing becomes positive at TOA, reaching 0.04 W/m2 at TOA and the tropopause. The clear-sky SW forcing is not affected by the stratospheric temperature adjustment. A comparison of water vapor radiative forcing calculated using broadband and line-by-line stand-alone radiative transfer models shows that the RRTM broadband model widely used in global and regional models overestimates the WV radiative forcing almost twice.

Thus, we found that sulfate aerosols dominate the radiative forcing generated by the Hunga volcano eruption for at least eight months after the explosion. By then, the sulfate aerosols and WV forcings decreased 3-5 times compared to their pick values. The direct Hunga aerosol radiative forcing is about 30 times smaller than that of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. The direct WV radiative forcing at the surface is negligibly tiny all the time. It cannot activate the slow ocean feedback and, therefore, cannot cause long-term climate perturbations. However, strong stratospheric cooling, associated changes in stratospheric circulation, and ozone depletion might affect tropospheric climate indirectly.

How to cite: Stenchikov, G., Ukhov, A., and Osipov, S.: Modeling of Instantaneous and Adjusted Radiative Forcing of the 2022 Hunga Volcano Explosion.  , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2141, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2141, 2024.

X5.26
|
EGU24-5458
The radiative impact of the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai stratospheric eruption: a 2-year perspective
(withdrawn)
Pasquale Sellitto, Redha Belhadji, Clair Duchamp, Aurélien Podglajen, Elisa Carboni, Richard Siddans, Corinna Kloss, and Bernard Legras
X5.27
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EGU24-6449
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ECS
Zachary McGraw and Lorenzo M. Polvani

Observations and models have indicated a reduction in global mean precipitation during the years following major volcanic eruptions, yet why this occurs has not been rigorously established. Here we apply an energy budget framework to identify the mechanisms behind reduced post-eruption precipitation. Volcanic aerosols alter the atmosphere’s energy balance, with a precipitation (latent heating) response being one pathway that returns the atmosphere towards equilibrium. Using global climate model simulations, we demonstrate that post-eruption precipitation reduction is primarily a consequence of Earth’s surface and troposphere cooling in response to reflection of sunlight by volcanic aerosols. Additionally, these aerosols directly add energy to the atmosphere by absorbing outgoing longwave radiation, which causes much of the precipitation decline in the first post-eruption year. We further identify mechanisms that limit the post-eruption decline, most prominently the influence of a warmer stratosphere. Lastly, we demonstrate that our results are robust across climate models.

How to cite: McGraw, Z. and Polvani, L. M.: How Volcanic Aerosols Globally Inhibit Precipitation, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6449, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6449, 2024.

X5.28
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EGU24-10614
Ralf Hand, Eric Samakinwa, Jörg Franke, Laura Lipfert, and Stefan Brönnimann

In contrast to the radiative cooling that dominates atmospheric response to volcanoes in most regions, Northern Eurasia shows a warming signal when averaging the observed signal over several eruptions. Up to the current understanding this warming is likely caused by a positive NAO response leading to compensation of the radiative cooling through enhanced advection of mild air from the North Atlantic towards the continent. However, individual eruptions show remarkable differences when computing the response as the difference between the pre and post eruption states for each eruption separately. When only analyzing observations it is difficult to quantify the contributions of internal variability on the one hand and differences in the volcanic forcing on the other hand. Also the response mechanisms are potentially influenced by many different factors. e.g. the strength and the location of the eruption, the ocean state at the time of eruption and internal variability causing different pre-eruption states of the atmosphere. Therefore generalized statements on the volcanic response are difficult to make given the limited number of well-observed major eruptions. Ensemble climate model simulations can help to better understand the related processes by providing multiple realizations of the same historic eruptions and thereby providing a way to separate internal variability from forced signals. Here, we use ModE-Sim, a medium-size atmospheric model ensemble, and its companion dataset ModE-RA, a reanalysis product that uses ModE-Sim as an a-priori state before assimilating historic climate data from different sources. Our first results show that the commonly used practice of averaging about 15 observed eruptions may inherit high uncertainties when interpreting the volcanic winter response.

How to cite: Hand, R., Samakinwa, E., Franke, J., Lipfert, L., and Brönnimann, S.: The Northern Hemisphere winter response to historic volcanic eruptions: How it looked like and how it may have looked like differently, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10614, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10614, 2024.

X5.29
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EGU24-10774
Andrew Schurer, Andrew Ballinger, Andrea Dittus, Ed Hawkins, Richard Cornes, Elizabeth Kent, Colin Morice, Tim Osborn, Steven Rumbold, and Gabriele Hegerl

Typically, climate simulations covering the historical period start in 1850, with the first fifty years used as a baseline to represent a ‘pre-industrial' climate. The period immediately prior to 1850 is however of particular interest, as it had far more volcanic activity than any time during the subsequent historical period, and this is known to have caused large cooling of global temperatures. Exploring the climate of this period could help to better understand early anthropogenic warming, natural climate variability and anticipate the response to large future eruptions.

Here we will: (1) highlight the development of a new instrumental observation-based dataset (GloSAT) for temperature variations across the globe from 1781 to present; (2) discuss an ensemble of historical simulations with UKESM1 which were started in 1750, 100 years earlier than typical. These two sources of evidence will be used to identify the long-lasting impacts of the early 19th century volcanism and disentangle it from the response to other forcings and internal variations. Longer term effects of this period are also explored with significant differences found with historical simulations run using the same model initialised in 1850 lasting well into the 20th century. The implications of this discrepancy and the role of large volcanic eruptions on multi-decadal climate will be discussed. 

How to cite: Schurer, A., Ballinger, A., Dittus, A., Hawkins, E., Cornes, R., Kent, E., Morice, C., Osborn, T., Rumbold, S., and Hegerl, G.: Importance of early 19th century volcanic activity on long-term climate variability., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10774, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10774, 2024.

X5.30
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EGU24-4234
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ECS
Malcolm Maas, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Marcus Van Lier-Walqui

Volcanic eruptions emit large amounts of sulfur dioxide (SO2), water, and other chemicals into the atmosphere, both in the troposphere and the stratosphere. Most of the SO2 is converted to sulfate aerosol, which is eventually deposited following long-range transport. The deposits from large eruptions are potentially detectable in ice cores, but there are many cases in which sulfate layers have not been linked to their source volcanoes. As volcanoes can act as significant shocks to the global climate system, we are interested in locating these eruptions in order to increase understanding of the volcanic record. To narrow down the search, we performed 140 simulations of volcanic eruptions using the GISS ModelE Earth system model. We varied the latitude, longitude, Julian day, plume top, plume bottom, and injected SO2 and H2O amounts using a Latin hypercube sampling approach, and analyzed correlations between these parameters and sulfate depositions at ice core sites in Antarctica and Greenland. Using machine learning and parameter estimation, we generated probability distributions and maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters given sulfate deposition data, which can predict latitude with some skill. We find that the volcano latitude and SO2 content are best correlated with sulfate depositions at each pole, while longitude, Julian day, and H2O have small or insignificant effects. Plume altitude and thickness are important because they determine how much of the SO2 is injected into the stratosphere, which has implications for sulfur transport and lifetimes.

How to cite: Maas, M., Tsigaridis, K., and Van Lier-Walqui, M.: Combining Earth System Modeling and Machine Learning to Investigate Volcanic Sulfate Deposition in Polar Ice Cores, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4234, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4234, 2024.

X5.31
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EGU24-12589
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ECS
Jun Zhang, Peidong Wang, Douglas Kinnison, Susan Solomon, and Jian Guan

Following the eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) in January 2022, a significant reduction in stratospheric hydrochloric acid (HCl) was observed in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes during the austral winter of 2022. This eruption injected sulfur dioxide and unprecedented amounts of water vapor into the stratosphere. The objective of this study is to comprehensively understand the substantial loss of HCl in the aftermath of HTHH. Satellite measurements from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), along with data from the global chemistry-climate model Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), are employed for the analysis. We first compare the modeled 2022 anomalies of HCl and N2O with observations from ACE and MLS, and find noteworthy agreement between the model outputs and the measured data. We then utilize the observed tracer-tracer relations between N2O and HCl to distinguish HCl chemical processing from dynamical transport. The results indicate a significant role of chemical processing in the observed HCl reduction. The chemical changes in HCl derived from ACE and MLS align with the changes calculated from nudged model simulations, where dynamics are fixed to reanalysis. Further delving into the WACCM’s detailed chemistry, we examine individual chlorine gas-phase and heterogeneous reactions. Heterogeneous chemistry emerges as the primary driver for the chemical loss of HCl, with the reaction between HOBr and HCl on sulfate aerosols identified as the dominant loss process.

How to cite: Zhang, J., Wang, P., Kinnison, D., Solomon, S., and Guan, J.: Stratospheric chlorine activation after the unprecedented water-rich Hunga Tonga eruption, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12589, 2024.

X5.32
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EGU24-5295
Stratospheric Aerosol and Ozone Responses to the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcanic Eruption: Insights from Chemistry and Dynamics
(withdrawn)
Sijia Lou, Jinpeng Lu, Xin Huang, Lian Xue, and Aijun Ding
X5.33
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EGU24-9210
Christoph Brühl, Jos Lelieveld, Landon Rieger, and Michelle Santee

The chemistry-climate model EMAC was used to simulate the period 2019 to 2023 with tropospheric meteorology slightly nudged to ERA5 data. Volcanic SO2 injections were derived from aerosol extinction observations by OSIRIS and OMPS-LP which were also used for evaluation of the simulated aerosol, which includes organic particles from major forest fires that can linger in the lower stratosphere for more than 2 years. Our simulations consider several hundred explosive volcanic eruptions. The simulations of ozone chemistry include enhanced surface area density and fast heterogeneous chlorine activation on organic particles and will be compared with AURA-MLS observations. The effects of the major water vapour injection by the eruption of Hunga Tonga in 2022 on radiative transfer and chemistry were also analysed (as a contribution to SSIRC Hunga Tonga). 
For example, in 2022 the Hunga Tonga eruption increased the depth of the calculated  Antarctic ozone hole by about 12 DU. The Australian bushfire emissions enhanced the aerosol surface area which deepened the 2020 ozone hole by about 7 DU, with the largest changes near the vortex edge. The smoke effect is expected to increase with updated heterogeneous chemistry.
The computed global instantaneous aerosol radiative forcing by Hunga Tonga at the top of the atmosphere was about -0.12 W/m2 in 2022. The injected water vapour by Hunga Tonga exerted a radiative forcing of about +0.04 W/m2 in the first four months after the eruption. By the end of 2022, it nearly vanished due to dynamical and chemical adjustments. The absorbing aerosol from the Australian and Canadian forest fire emissions changed the stratospheric aerosol forcing from -0.2 W/m2 to +0.3 W/m2 in January 2020, and in January 2022 the remaining effect was about 0.05 W/m2, reducing the negative forcing by the volcanoes. Continued interesting effects of the Hunga Tonga eruptions are expected for 2023, based on results from ongoing simulations.

How to cite: Brühl, C., Lelieveld, J., Rieger, L., and Santee, M.: Radiative forcing and stratospheric ozone changes due to recent volcanic eruptions and major forest fires, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9210, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9210, 2024.

X5.34
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EGU24-11045
Ulrike Niemeier, Sandra Wallis, Claudia Timmreck, Trang van Pham, and Christian von Savigny

The eruption of the Hunga Tonga - Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcano on January 15, 2022 changed the water vapor content of the stratosphere. The eruption injected about 150 Tg of water vapor (H2O), roughly 10% of the background stratospheric H2O content, to altitudes above 50 km. Observations with the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) detected the transport and distribution of the H2O cloud after the eruption. This provided a great opportunity to compare the simulated transport of the H2O cloud in the ICON-Seamless model with the MLS observation to see the performance of the stratospheric dynamics in this newly developed model. ICON-Seamless simulations were performed with NWP physics in a low horizontal resolution of about 160 km. A new vertical grid with 130 levels and a maximum grid size of 500 m in the stratosphere allowed the simulation of an internally generated QBO.

The simulated spatial evolution of the H2O cloud is very close to the MLS observations. In both, model and observation, the vertical transport of the H2O cloud had three phases: an initial subsidence phase, a stable phase, and a rising phase. Radiative cooling of H2O clearly affects the transport of the H2O cloud, as demonstrated with passive tracers. It is the main driver within the subsidence phase. The radiative cooling also counteracts the large-scale rising motion in the tropics, leading to the stable phase, and modulates the large-scale transport of the H2O cloud for about nine months. This holds for different QBO phases, where the H2O cloud differs mainly in its vertical extent.

How to cite: Niemeier, U., Wallis, S., Timmreck, C., van Pham, T., and von Savigny, C.: How the Hunga Tonga - Hunga Ha’apai water vapor cloud impacts its transport through the stratosphere: Dynamical and radiative effects, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11045, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11045, 2024.

X5.35
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EGU24-12714
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ECS
Ales Kuchar, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriel Chiodo, Harald Rieder, Jessica Kult-Herdin, Andrea Stenke, and Eugene Rozanov

We utilized the Earth System model SOCOLv4 to assess the impacts of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption comprehensively. To accurately estimate the model's performance in terms of water vapour and aerosol plume transport during the initial year, we conducted a multi-member ensemble of free-running simulations and additional simulations employing atmospheric dynamics specified to the ERA5 reanalysis data. These simulations were compared with satellite and reanalysis products. The free-running ensemble simulations with only SO2 (no additional H2O) emissions showed the importance of the two species interaction for the resulting sulphate aerosol evolution, in agreement with previous studies. Furthermore, our primary free-running ensemble simulations, comparing scenarios with and without the eruption event, unravelled a negative response in polar stratospheric ozone levels and temperature. Importantly, these changes were found to be coupled to polar vortex dynamics confirming a larger ozone hole during the austral winter and spring of 2023.

How to cite: Kuchar, A., Sukhodolov, T., Chiodo, G., Rieder, H., Kult-Herdin, J., Stenke, A., and Rozanov, E.: Impacts of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Eruption: Insights from the SOCOLv4 ESM about past and future, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12714, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12714, 2024.

X5.36
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EGU24-18313
Diabatic heating rates and early dispersion of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai plume 
(withdrawn)
Aurélien Podglajen, Duc Dung Tran, Pasquale Sellitto, Clair Duchamp, Bernard Legras, William Randel, and Jon Starr
X5.37
|
EGU24-13913
Matthew Toohey, Yue Jia, Sujan Khanal, and Susann Tegtmeier

The amount of time that volcanic aerosols spend in the stratosphere is one of the primary factors influencing the climate impact of volcanic eruptions. Descriptions of stratospheric aerosol persistence vary, with many works quoting an approximately 1-year residence time for aerosol from large tropical eruptions, but other references to 1-2 year “lifetimes”. We introduce a framework for describing the evolution of global stratospheric aerosol after major volcanic eruptions and assess its persistence, based on analysis of global satellite-based aerosol observations, tracer transport simulations and simple conceptual modeling. We show that stratospheric residence time, which is estimated through passive tracer pulse experiments and is one factor influencing the lifetime of stratospheric aerosols, is strongly dependent on the injection latitude and height, with an especially strong sensitivity to injection height in the first four kilometers above the tropical tropopause. Time series of simulated stratospheric tracer fraction are best described by a simple model which includes a lag between the injection and initiation of removal from the stratosphere. A simple model including lagged decay, as well as a timescale for sulfate aerosol production, produces a best fit to global observations of stratospheric aerosol after the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo consistent with a stratospheric lifetime of about 24 months. We estimate the potential impact of observational uncertainties on this lifetime estimate and find it likely that the lifetime of Pinatubo stratospheric aerosol is 20 months or greater. 

How to cite: Toohey, M., Jia, Y., Khanal, S., and Tegtmeier, S.: Stratospheric residence time and the lifetime of volcanic stratospheric aerosols, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13913, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13913, 2024.

X5.38
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EGU24-19841
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Yaowei Li, Corey Pedersen, John Dykema, Jean-Paul Vernier, Felix Wrana, Christian von Savigny, Sandro Vattioni, Amit Pandit, Andrea Stenke, Elizabeth Asher, Troy Thornberry, Michael Todt, ThaoPaul Bui, Jonathan Dean-Day, and Frank Keutsch

Stratospheric aerosol plays an important role in Earth's radiative budget and in heterogeneous chemistry. Volcanic eruptions modulate the stratospheric aerosol layer by injecting particles and particle precursors like sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere. The eruption of La Soufrière in April 2021 resulted in two distinct enhanced aerosol layers in the tropical lower stratosphere. These layers emerged approximately 3–4 weeks after the eruption, specifically at altitudes of 18 km (∼400 K) and 21 km (∼490 K), as observed through CALIOP/CALIPSO measurements. The lower plumes dispersed to higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, while the upper plume exhibited restricted poleward transport. From June to August 2021 and May to July 2022, the NASA ER-2 high-altitude aircraft and balloon-borne instruments extensively sampled the stratospheric aerosol layer over the continental United States during the Dynamics and Chemistry of the Summer Stratosphere (DCOTSS) mission. These in situ aerosol measurements provide detailed insights into the number concentration, size distribution, and spatiotemporal variations of particles within volcanic plumes. Notably, aerosol surface area density and number density in 2021 were enhanced by a factor of 2–4 between 380–500 K potential temperature compared to the 2022 DCOTSS observations, which were minimally influenced by volcanic activity. Within the volcanic plume, the observed aerosol number density exhibited significant meridional and zonal variations, while the mode and shape of aerosol size distributions did not vary. The La Soufrière eruption led to an increase in the number concentration of small particles (<400 nm), resulting in a smaller aerosol effective diameter during the summer of 2021 compared to the baseline conditions in the summer of 2022. Balloon-borne measurements also implied that particles within the upper plume were larger than those present in the lower plume, likely due to an extended processing time within the tropical reservoir. The variance in volcanic aerosol microphysical processes between the tropical reservoir and the midlatitude lower stratosphere, along with their consequent impact on changes in aerosol size, will be further discussed. We modeled the eruption with the SOCOL-AERv2 aerosol–chemistry–climate model. The modeled aerosol enhancement aligned well with DCOTSS observations. The modeled top-of-atmosphere 1-year global average radiative forcing was −0.08 W m−2 clear-sky and −0.04 W m−2 all-sky. The radiative effects were concentrated in the tropics and NH midlatitudes and diminished to near-baseline levels after 1 year.

How to cite: Li, Y., Pedersen, C., Dykema, J., Vernier, J.-P., Wrana, F., von Savigny, C., Vattioni, S., Pandit, A., Stenke, A., Asher, E., Thornberry, T., Todt, M., Bui, T., Dean-Day, J., and Keutsch, F.: Variations in stratospheric aerosol layer and aerosol microphysical processes following the 2021 La Soufrière eruption: insights from in situ and satellite observations, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19841, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19841, 2024.

X5.39
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EGU24-19182
Graham Mann, Sandip Dhomse, Masaru Yoshioka, Saffron Heddell, Rosalyn Hatcher, Grenville Lister, Ghassan Taha, Mahesh Kovilakam, Travis Knepp, Larry Thomason, and Margot Clyne

We present findings from a series of interactive stratospheric aerosol simulations of the Hunga-Tonga volcanic aerosol cloud with the UM-UKCA composition-climate model (Dhomse et al., 2020; Marshall et al., 2019; Dhomse et al., 2014).

The January 2022 Hunga eruption was the most explosive eruption in the satellite era (Wright et al., 2022), an upper portion of the volcanic aerosol plume at 30-40km (Taha et al., 2022), with the main detrainment initially at ~27-30km, a highly unusual steep descent of the plume seeing the aerosol layer form at ~22-26km (e.g. Kloss et al., 2022; Legras et al., 2022; Baron et al., 2023).

The eruption emitted only a modest 0.4-0.5Tg of SO2 to the stratosphere (Carn et al., 2022).   but generated the strongest stratospheric aerosol optical depth for 30 years (e.g. Khaykin et al., 2022; Taha et al., 2022; Bourassa et al., 2023)

The shallow underwater explosion also detrained ~150Tg of water vapour deep into the stratosphere (e.g. Millan et al., 2022), shown by Zhu et al. (2022) and Asher et al. (2023) to have accelerated SO2 oxidation and enhanced the growth of volcanic sulphate aerosol, the particles more readily reaching optically-active sizes.

The GLOMAP aerosol module within UM-UKCA model predicts the stratospheric sulphate aerosol particles that form heterogeneously around meteoric smoke particles, alongside the sulphate aerosol that nucleate homogeneously (see Brooke et al., 2017; Dhomse et al. (2020).   The model transports these two sulphate aerosol types in separate modes in the aerosol microphysics module, including with their microphysical interactions (coagulation and uptake of sulphuric acid).

For the major volcanic aerosol clouds in most previous UM-UKCA stratospheric aerosol publications, the meteoric-sulphuric aerosol have only a minor role on volcanic forcing (via modulated decay timescale). Here we explore the significance of the meteoric aerosol within SO2-only simulations of the Hunga-Tonga volcanic aerosol cloud’s global dispersion.

The long residence times for stratospheric aerosol particles within the tropical stratospheric reservoir means the stratospheric aerosol layer’s column burden enhancement after modest eruptions can be determined not only from the amount of volcanic SO2 emitted, but partly also reflects the residence time of the mix of stratospheric aerosol particles. 

We explore more generally the role of meteoric-sulphuric particles within moderate SO2 emission tropical stratosphere-injecting eruptions, exploring the transition from sheared volcanic plume to dispersed aerosol cloud, and how the additional volcanic aerosol particles combine with the two types of sulphuric acid particles in the background aerosol.

The series of UM-UKCA model experiments align with protocols for the Tonga-MIP multi-model experiment (Clyne et al., 2022), and explore how moderate volcanic enhancements to the stratospheric aerosol layer evolve in the transitional post-plume phase across months 2 to 4 after the eruption.

We analyse how the predicted size distributions of the two sulphate aerosol types progress after moderate volcanic eruptions, exploring simulated co-variations of particle size  with multi-wavelength aerosol extinction and sulphate mass. We compare also to satellite measurements after Hunga-Tonga and for other recent moderate stratosphere-injecting eruptions.

How to cite: Mann, G., Dhomse, S., Yoshioka, M., Heddell, S., Hatcher, R., Lister, G., Taha, G., Kovilakam, M., Knepp, T., Thomason, L., and Clyne, M.: Interactive and microphysical simulations of the stratospheric aerosol layer: Global size distribution variation after moderate volcanic enhancement , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19182, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19182, 2024.