Emerging economies are increasingly constructing large hydropower projects to meet growing energy demand. The Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra transboundary basin shared by China, India, and Bangladesh holds enormous untapped hydropower potential, attracting ambitious hydropower development plans in the region. The transboundary basin is a highly biodiverse region sensitive to environmental and anthropogenic stressors. Hydropower projects are advertised as powerful development infrastructure that can provide greater access to clean water and clean energy. However, these projects also present grave environmental challenges including the degradation of ecosystems and their services, biodiversity loss and increased risk of natural hazards like earthquakes, landslides and floods. Further, dams have social and economic effects like population displacement and loss of livelihoods. Such effects are gendered: women are often disproportionately impacted. Stakeholder engagement with indigenous and other local communities is often absent or negligible in planning these hydropower projects. The projects usually export the electricity produced to far-away urban centres, leaving basin populations energy-poor, further aggravating existing inequities in resource access.

This paper presents a systems model examining the interactions between the socio-economic, ecological, hydrological, and institutional structures operating in the river basin to investigate the socio-environmental impacts of hydropower development in the region. The systems model has been conceptualised using stakeholder inputs gathered through fieldwork in the upper Brahmaputra basin. The model will especially examine interlinkages between hydropower development-induced systemic changes and socio-ecological well-being. 

How to cite: Thakur, I. S., Hegarty, S., and O'Keeffe, J.: Utilising a system dynamics framework to investigate socio-environmental impacts of hydropower in the upper Brahmaputra basin , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-674, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-674, 2024.

Water, Energy and Food represent an interconnected nexus, with Ecosystems and the services they provide inextricably bound up in the “WEFE nexus”. Within these sectors, policies and decisions have traditionally been implemented independently, sometimes resulting in a lack of coordination and significant trade-offs among different sectors, manifesting in challenging management of different resources. To proficiently oversee resources and prevent conflicts among users, numerous pertinent policies should be thoughtfully crafted to tackle the interconnectedness of the nexus across various spatial and temporal scales.

The Adige River basin, located in the northeast area of Italy, presents a complex institutional, socio-economic, and bio-physical context; this situation is reflected on the management of resources’ availability, particularly during water scarcity emergencies. Indeed, due to their sectorial nature, these policies fail to comprehensively consider the impacts on other sectors, creating complexities in effective management. The purpose of this analysis is to develop a conceptual model which allows the identification and qualitatively characterization of the relations among the WEFE sectors supported by sectoral policies and by a set of measures aimed at support the ecosystems and their services in a WEFE nexus perspective. The measures, represented by quantitative targets, will be translated into future scenarios to assess ecosystem services based on future land uses.

As a first step, after gathering peer-reviewed literature, grey literature, and sectoral policies, an initial conceptualization of the sectors engaged in the WEFE Nexus was conducted. The conceptual model tries to provide insight into the entry points of significant WEFE policies within the nexus, while also initiating an understanding of the broader systemic effects that potential policy implementation might have. It is a visual depictions of systems that encompass crucial variables and illustrate their interconnections. The integration of local polices within the conceptual model is fundamental in identifying relevant interconnections, tailored for the case study area. To pinpoint measures and goals intended to support ecosystem services in the Adige River basin, policies associated with the ecosystems have been emphasized. Additionally, other policies have been examined from diverse sectors that target ecosystems and land components, with the objective of defining potential measures viable for future scenarios, all aimed at bolstering the ecosystem services component. Subsequently, the measures determined by the selected policies have been examined and grouped according to their typology: regulation, market and incentives. For each measure, one or more targets have been outlined based on the analyzed policies and on stakeholders’ perspectives. The selected targets are important for determining whether the defined connections among sectors can be supported by the policies. Indeed, engaging stakeholders representing diverse WEFE sectors, including governmental bodies, local communities, academia, is vital in undertaking this collaborative approach because they collaborate with knowledge, expertise, and perspectives crucial for defining targets characterizing the future scenarios that preserve and enhance ecosystem services while ensuring sustainable development within the Adige River basin.  

 The results of this study are part of the Horizon2020 project NEXOGENESIS and pave the way for future analysis on the assessment of ecosystem services based on future land use scenarios.

How to cite: Sambo, B., Cocuccioni, S., Carnelli, F., Sperotto, A., Terzi, S., Torresan, S., Pittore, M., and Critto, A.: Stakeholders’ engagement for the identification of measures supporting ecosystem services within the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) nexus in the Adige River basin (Italy)., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1127, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1127, 2024.

It is important to analyze the efficiency of agricultural water and land resources utilization in macro-regions from the perspective of synergistic inputs and "economic-social-ecological" benefits for the sustainability of agricultural production. This paper clarified the connotation of agricultural water and land resources use efficiency by combining the broad concept of water resources and the characteristics of "multiple inputs - multiple outputs" in agricultural production, constructed the Super-SBM(Super slacks based measure) model and Super-Undesirable-SBM(Super undesirable slacks based measure) model using data envelopment analysis to measure the production allocation efficiency. The Super-SBM model and Super-Undesirable-SBM model were used to measure the efficiency of agricultural water and land resources utilization of the concept. Agricultural water and land resources utilization efficiency without considering ecological benefits (WLUE), agricultural water and land resources utilization efficiency with considering ecological benefits (WLUEE), water resource utilization efficiency loss (WUEL) and arable land resource utilization efficiency loss (LUEL) were measured for 51 counties in the study area, taking the Shandong Yellow Diversion Irrigation District as an example. By comparing and analyzing the WLUE and WLUEE measurement results, WUEL and LUEL decomposition results, the characteristics of agricultural water and soil resource utilization and the size difference of the two resource utilization efficiency losses in each county of the study area were revealed, and the counties of the study area were classified into four types: green and efficient production type, ordinary efficient production type, green and inefficient production type and ordinary inefficient production type. This paper proposed targeted improvement measures for agricultural soil and water resource use efficiency in each county and a new perspective for the study of agricultural soil and water resource utilization efficiency. The research results are conducive to promoting the sustainable development of agricultural production in the study area.

How to cite: Liu, C.: Agricultural Water and Land Resources Use Efficiency Based on Green Production and Resources Synergy, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2396, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2396, 2024.

The Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem nexus is characterized by synergies, complementarities and conflicts, and thus its management is a demanding task. This becomes more challenging when socioeconomic influences are embedded. Key components of this nexus are multipurpose water reservoirs that provide drinking water, electricity, agricultural water for food production, and ecosystem services. These systems are driven by inherently uncertain processes, both hydroclimatic and human-induced (e.g., legal regulations, strategic management policies, real-time controls, and market rules), and thus their management should account for them. In this vein, this research proposes an uncertainty-aware methodology for assessing the long-term performance of hydropower reservoirs. Specifically, we investigate and describe in stochastic terms the main uncertain drivers i.e., rainfall, water demands, and energy scheduling, and eventually explore the cascade effects of the uncertainty chain. The modeling framework is stress-tested on a hydropower reservoir in Greece, Plastiras, which has been subject to challenging socioeconomic conflicts during its entire 65-year history. To estimate the water targets, we employ a statistical analysis of historical abstractions, concluding that the irrigation demand is strongly correlated with the reservoir level while it is negatively correlated with antecedent rainfall. For the estimation of the power plant’s energy target, we adopt a copula-based approach, in which the desirable releases for energy production are dependent on day-ahead electricity prices. In particular, we adopt three policies, i.e., conservative, median, and energy-centric, that refer to 95%, 50%, and 5% quantiles of the copula. Finally, to account for the hydroclimatic and market process uncertainties, we are taking advantage of stochastic models for the generation of synthetic rainfall and electricity price data, respectively. Our findings indicate that the cascade effects of the joint uncertainties are crucial for all operation policies. Specifically, in terms of profitability the energy-centric and the median are similar, while from a water supply and irrigation reliability perspective, the uncertainty range of this policy is wider, thus making it unacceptable for some scenarios. Consequently, the conventional approach of ignoring uncertainty in policy selection may result in misleading perceptions for the operator, eventually guiding to sub-optimal reservoir management. 

How to cite: Sakki, G. K., Castelletti, A., Makropoulos, C., and Efstratiadis, A.: Trade-offs in hydropower reservoir operation under the chain of uncertainty, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3487, 2024.

Water, energy, and food security are threatened by changes in climate. Shifts in rainfall patterns and increases in temperature affect availability of catchment water resources, particularly when hydrological regimes are rainfall-limited, snow-dominant or influenced by glaciers. The sectors dependent on those water resources are therefore more at risk. To evaluate resource availability, sector interdependencies and overall vulnerability of a catchment, a nexus approach can be used. More holistic solutions can then be developed, increasing the catchment’s resilience to changes in future. However, difficulties lie in capturing the dynamics of climate, land, energy, and water systems together. In Norway for instance, this often includes snow, glaciers, and the management of reservoirs for hydropower production, and few nexus methods include these features. To address this, we selected the Community Water Model (CWatM) and made several new developments. CWatM is a widely available, easily adjustable hydrological model on a 1km x 1km daily resolution. It has the facility to include multiple crop types, and domestic, agriculture and industry water demands, therefore highly suitable for nexus assessment. The new developments to CWatM mean that seasonal changes in both reservoir and glacier water storage can now be assessed, so how these have affected, and may affect resilience to changes in climate in future could be evaluated. To test the model developments, we applied the CWatM model to the Otta catchment in Innlandet, Norway. Three large glacial bodies, and four hydropower reservoirs provide water storage to an otherwise rain-limited catchment (~300mm/year). Water resources are required for consistent hydropower production throughout the year, agriculture, and forestry, as well as white water rafting-dependent tourism. These competing demands, alongside the melting of glaciers due to climate change, have the potential to put a large amount of strain on the limited water resources. Results showed that CWatM with the new developments successfully represented the dynamics of stream discharge, glaciers, and reservoir water storage in the Otta catchment. Future work will focus on assessing the vulnerability and resilience of the Otta catchment to climatic extremes given historic and potential future changes in storage with climate change. Wider application of CWatM and the new developments could improve nexus evaluation of other catchments in Norway and worldwide and highlight opportunities for greater resilience to changes in climate.

How to cite: Fennell, J., Burek, P., Smilovic, M., Virk, Z., Torabi Haghighi, A., Eisner, S., Beldring, S., Kwok Wong, W., Kværner, J., Berg, P., Bossard, T., and Klöve, B.: Including glacier storage change and reservoir management into the Community Water Model to assess vulnerabilities and enhance resilience in the Climate-Land-Energy-Water nexus, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3584, 2024.

With the growth of global population and sustained socio-economic development, the demand for food continues to rise. However, increasing water scarcity poses significant challenges to agricultural production, coupled with environmental issues such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As the world's most populous country, China faces even more severe water and environmental challenges in food production. Changes in the spatial patterns of food cultivation have implications for regional water consumption and GHG emissions. This study, based on the virtual water theory, explored the water-carbon effects resulting from the evolving spatial patterns of grain production and assessed their impact on sustainability goals in China. The findings reveal that the spatial pattern of grain production is influenced not only by regional meteorological conditions and arable land resources but also by shifts in industrial structure. Due to changes in industrial patterns and population movement, the center of grain production moved opposite to that of the economy and population, gradually shifting northward. While inter-regional grain transportation yields water-saving benefits, it simultaneously increases water resource pressure in the northern output areas by over 20%, creating a conflict between global water conservation and regional water use escalation. Changes in the spatial pattern of grain cultivation also affect the regional water environment and GHG emissions. The gray water footprint of the grain export region is higher, doubling with the increase in the scale of grain exports. The larger the scale of grain cultivation and transportation, the higher the GHG emissions of the region. Notably, the increase in GHG emissions for the grain export region surpasses that of the import region. In terms of sustainability goals, the current evolution of the spatial pattern of grain cultivation contributes to eradicating hunger, ensuring water resource security, promoting economic development, and enhancing infrastructure, but with obvious spatial heterogeneity. Considering national development planning, regional industrial structure, and population flow trends, the long-term operation of the "north-south water transfer" project – a virtual water trade pattern – poses a crucial challenge. Balancing overall development with local sustainability is paramount. In addition to adopting water-saving and emission-reduction measures in the production chain, optimizing the virtual water trade pattern, constructing a water-saving dietary structure, and optimizing the planting structure through demand-side guidance and macro policies are essential. This holistic approach will yield a counter effect on the production side, ultimately achieving water-saving and emission-reduction goals in both production and consumption.

How to cite: Sun, S., Yin, Y., Luan, X., and Sun, J.: Assessment of water-carbon effects on the evolution of spatial patterns of grain production in China, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7719, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7719, 2024.

The objective of the European Water Framework Directive WFD (60/2000/EC) is to achieve or maintain at least a good ecological status of surface water bodies also by identifying appropriate e-flows. Water Management Plans issued by the Hydrographic District Authorities, based on the knowledge of the amount of water resources available, define e-flows and permitted water abstractions to support many human activities, e.g. domestic, agricultural etc. The objective of this work is to assess if the theoretical restoration of natural flows in river catchments allows to achieve a good ecological status of rivers. The method is based on the evaluation of natural and actual flows based on a 20-years water balance simulation implemented with a distributed, vector&raster based hydrological model capable of describing anthropogenic alterations, e.g., point abstractions, releases, reservoir regulations, etc. A new dimensionless index of eco-hydrological distance is defined to measure how far is a river flow from its ecological objectives based on actual flow regime and pressures acting on the catchment (e.g., land use, climate). The method is applied to a region in central Italy, with ca. 11,000 river reaches and mediterranean climate, where almost 50% of water bodies currently fails to achieve WFD objectives. The results show that for the summer season, which is the driest one in the study area, most of the rivers are pushed towards the limits of bad ecological status. Moreover, in 48% of rivers the summer natural flows, if restored, will not guarantee a good ecological status, due to the significant eco-hydrological distance from the target e-flows.

Ackonowledgements

This study was carried out within the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005). The study also received funding from the Hydrographic District of the Northern Appenines, Florence (Italy) Agreement “Esecuzione delle attività finalizzate alla redazione dei bilanci idrici su base modellistica dei corpi idrici superficiali appartenenti ai bacini toscani del distretto idrografico dell’Appennino Settentrionale ed alla definizione della metodologia da utilizzare per la definizione del deflusso ecologico”.

How to cite: Arrighi, C., De Simone, M., and Castelli, F.: Is the restoration of natural flows enough to reach a good ecological status of rivers?, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7737, 2024.

Climate change, weather extremes, economic growth, urbanization and increased food production, among other things, are making it more complex to guarantee sufficient freshwater in agricultural and economic sectors. Historically, the Dutch agricultural water management focused on water discharge, which makes it now more vulnerable to droughts. A change is needed to anticipate both wet and dry extremes. Current pipe drainage systems (existing in 34 % of the agricultural fields), installed to discharge water, could be modified to systems to retain and recharge water too. Doing so, so called controlled drainage with subirrigation (CD-SI) systems could be a viable measure to i) discharge water only when needed and ii) retain and iii) recharge water when possible. We show data (years 2017-2022) and process-based model output of four experimental sites at the Dutch Pleistocene uplands where CD-SI is applied. Results show that CD-SI could significantly raise the groundwater level at field scale and increase soil moisture availability to plant roots, leading to higher crop yields. Effects of subirrigation are strongly dependent to i) the geohydrological site characteristics, like a resistance layer to limit excessive downward seepage, ii) sufficiently high ditch levels to prevent fast drainage, and iii) the consideration of how much water is supplied relative to acceptance of drought stress (and thus crop yield). Field experiments show that the water supply for CD-SI could be very large. We show how to limit the required water supply, using automated and online control of CD-SI systems. We use actual field measurements on groundwater levels and soil moisture conditions, weather forecasts and field scale hydrological modeling (using the Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant model SWAP) to automatically control CD-SI systems. Doing so, required water supply and drainage level are managed daily, based on the actual and future hydrological conditions, and plant water and oxygen demand, including the acceptance of a percentage of crop’s drought stress.  Results show that significant reductions in water demand for CD-SI systems could be obtained, if only relatively minor reductions in crop yield are accepted.

How to cite: de Wit, J. A., van Huijgevoort, M., van Dam, J., van den Eertwegh, G., and Bartholomeus, R.: Controlled drainage with subirrigation: automatic control to manage freshwater use, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9029, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9029, 2024.

How to cite: Xia, W., Giuliani, M., Politti, E., Macian-Sorribes, H., Ricart, S., Arias-Lopez, S., Kahil, T., Pulido-Velázquez, M., and Castelletti, A.: A Multi-dimensional Safe Operating Space Evaluation Framework for Regional Water Resources Systems, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9415, 2024.

Increasing climate-related water stress and growing water demand are challenging the goal of achieving food and water security in many basins around the world.. Addressing the problem requires the integration of sectoral policies based on interdisciplinary knowledge and sustainable management strategies. This study presents the development of an innovative and dynamic optimization framework that integrates a detailed representation of hydrological and technological constraints while accounting for the feedback between sectors (agriculture, urban, industrial, golf, and livestock). The hydroeconomic model has been applied in Axarquía (Spain) as a case study to evaluate the performance of water allocation and management among several users, determine the cost of water scarcity, and design sustainable water management interventions under future climate conditions. The policy analysis offers insights into the effects of alternative management strategies regarding cost of water supply from different water sources (including surface water diversion, groundwater pumping, non-conventional water production, and reservoirs). Our results highlight the potential of policy options for increasing water availability and suggest the most cost-effective and feasible options. The findings provide efficient water allocation plans between competing sectors, emphasizing the importance of using non-conventional water resources, such as desalinated water and wastewater, which help to save limited conventional resources and play an increasingly important role in meeting rising water demands. These critical results could help decision-makers to bring about efficient water allocation planning among sectors and advance resilience and adaptation to climate water stress. Axarquía’s issues and challenges light a path to relevance for other river basins internationally.

How to cite: Baccour, S., Berbel, J., Gutierrez, C., and Diaz-Cano, E.: Addressing Water Challenges in Southern Spain: A Comprehensive Assessment and Sustainable Management Approach, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10135, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10135, 2024.

Human societies and the whole planet are facing a number of challenges, due to climate and global changes, including freshwater scarcity and increase in demand for food and energy. Groundwater is a valuable resource supporting life, ecosystems, agriculture, and in general several human activities. Compared to surface water, groundwater has a longer temporal buffer, wider spatial distribution and more reliable water quality, making it a major source of freshwater in many areas of the world.

The concept of Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus has been proposed to highlight the complex interactions between water, agricultural production and energy, in order to ensure an integrated planning and management for these main assets. In such a context, groundwater plays a key role in the WEF Nexus, but the interdependencies with the agricultural and the energy sectors and their synergistic impacts have been rarely evaluated.

This work aims at addressing this issue by means of a systematic review searching the Scopus database for scientific articles published up to December 2023. Our search resulted in a total of 392 papers, and after analyzing all of them, we identified 217 papers suitable for our current research objectives, and an additional 3 papers were included by snowballing.

Groundwater is the main source for irrigation in many parts of the world. Inefficient irrigation may be one cause of aquifer overexploitation, while increasing efficiency may be thought of as a way to save groundwater. However, there are several cases where technological improvements in turn, may call for larger irrigated areas, hence creating a loop. At the same time irrigated agriculture increases the use of fertilizers and pesticides, which in turn means larger energy consumption and CO₂ emissions for their production, transportation and distribution. Energy is needed in farming for groundwater pumping, and in some cases routing. Energy may be needed also for treating groundwater to drinking standards. Competition for groundwater may exist between the industrial (including energy production) sectors and the agricultural one. Solutions to reduce groundwater exploitation (i.e. reuse of treated wastewater or desalinated water) may in turn increase energy consumption and decrease environmental quality. Our work provides a matrix to highlight the most relevant interdependencies among the groundwater resource, energy and agricultural production in order to support sustainable planning and development.

Acknowledgement

This contribution is presented within the framework of the NEXUS-NESS project. The NEXUS-NESS received funding from the PRIMA Programme, an Art.185 initiative supported and funded under Horizon 2020, the European Union’s Framework Programme for Research and Innovation.

How to cite: Yue, X., Joodavi, A., Ercoli, L., Sebastiani, L., Nardi, F., and Rossetto, R.: Unravelling the role of groundwater in the Water-Energy-Food NEXUS, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15428, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15428, 2024.

Integrated modelling of energy and water systems in the CLEWs (Climate, Land, Energy, and Water-systems) framework has significantly advanced our understanding of the intricate interactions among scarce sources such as water, energy, and food. This framework brings meaningful insights and quantitative results using modelling tools aligned with practical planning scenarios. Accordingly, this nexus approach enables policy and scenario analyses tailored to the sustainable development goals and the specific needs of countries, governments, and sectoral authorities.

Some open-source modelling tools provide a broad interface for incorporating water and energy planning assessments, which contribute to the development of various soft-linking models. In general, open-source energy modelling systems (such as OSeMOSYS) facilitate the simulation and optimization of energy systems on a regional and national level. However, OSeMOSYS has a notable limitation in modelling the spatial distribution of energy sources, demand, and infrastructure. In particular, the geographical location of energy sources impacts various factors, such as extraction costs, transmission and distribution efficiency, and environmental concerns such as carbon emissions.

This study aims to develop an integrated modelling approach for these associated costs, environmental impacts, and potential interdependencies between energy and water systems by explicitly capturing the spatial distribution of energy storage, energy sources, demand, and supply infrastructure. Integrating the Next Energy Modeling system for Optimization (NEMO), Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP), and Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis aims to identify optimal energy pathways considering environmental aspects, cost-effectiveness, and sustainable development goals. The proposed methodology aims to enable dispatch modelling of energy options with a sufficient temporal resolution and structure the interactions of CLEWs by explicitly accounting for the spatial distribution of energy sources, water resources, and infrastructure. This approach can provide a more accurate assessment of interdependencies and potential trade-offs.

The research outcomes will contribute to basin management and CLEWs studies, advancing the understanding of energy-water dynamics and offering insights into sustainable solutions for the Volta and Tana River Basins, in West and East Africa respectively. We present a systematic outline of our project and a preliminary example of an energy transition in the Volta River Basin using a spatially explicit modelling approach.  

How to cite: Sadak, D., van de Giesen, N., and Abraham, E.: Increasing the Spatial Resolution in CLEWs Studies: An Integrated Modelling Approach for Water-Energy-Food Systems, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16004, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16004, 2024.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is struggling with a continuous decline in water availability, attributed to climate change and variability, exacerbating the existing water scarcity. At the same time, factors such as population growth, urbanization, economic development and mismanagement further stress the scarce water resources. This study aims to assess the impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on the availability and use of water resources and related economic and environmental conditions in the MENA region at high spatial and temporal resolutions, in order to provide insights into cost-effective and sustainable water management options to reduce water scarcity. To do so, we apply a set of potential future climate and socio-economic change scenarios, based on combinations of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and informed by a review of regional development visions and consultations with key regional experts. Scenario simulations are conducted using the hydro-economic model ECHO in combination with the hydrological model CWatM at subbasin and monthly levels for the whole MENA region. Results of this study shows the escalating deficit in renewable water resources and the rising water demand, exacerbating water scarcity across the majority of the MENA countries. Therefore, meeting the increasing water demand becomes an even greater challenge in the region. To address this challenge, our results underscore the need for a more efficient allocation of water resources among sectors and subbasins at the regional level and a shift towards more advanced water conservation and reliable water supply technologies.

Keywords: Hydro-economic assessment, Water scenarios, Water scarcity, MENA region.      

How to cite: Asad, S., Sahu, R.-K., Fridman, D., Willaarts, B., and Kahil, T.: Hydro-economic assessment of the impact of climate and socio-economic changes on water resources in the MENA region, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17546, 2024.