HS5.2.1 | Water resources policy and management - managing trade-offs at the nexus between water, food, energy and the environment
EDI
Water resources policy and management - managing trade-offs at the nexus between water, food, energy and the environment
Convener: Timothy Foster | Co-conveners: Andrea MomblanchECSECS, Hector Macian-SorribesECSECS, Taher Kahil, Andrea Castelletti
Orals
| Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
Room 2.31
Posters on site
| Attendance Mon, 15 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Mon, 15 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall A
Orals |
Tue, 08:30
Mon, 10:45
Water sustains societies, economies and ecosystem services locally and globally. Increasing water demands driven by ongoing socioeconomic development, coupled with shifts in water availability due to climate change and variability and land use change, are increasing competition and conflict over access to and use of freshwater resources in many regions around the world. To address these challenges, integrative approaches to water management and policy are required to balance and manage trade-offs between social, economic and environmental uses of water. In addition, there is an emerging need for adaptive and flexible solutions capable of updating decisions to newly available information, often issued in the form of weather or streamflow forecasts or extracted from observational data collected via pervasive sensor networks, remote sensing, cyberinfrastructure, or crowdsourcing. This session will provide a forum for showcasing novel and emerging research at the intersection of agricultural production, energy security, water supply, economic development, and environmental conservation. In particular, we encourage contributions to the session that: (i) identify knowledge gaps and improvements to understanding about the critical interconnections, feedbacks, and risks between system components, (ii) highlight development of new methods or tools for evaluating and monitoring trade-offs and performance in water allocation and management between different users and sectors, (iii) evaluate alternative technological, policy, and/or governance interventions to address water-food-energy-environment system challenges in different locations and at various scales (local, regional, and/or global), and (iv) advance the use of multi-sectoral forecasts combined with data analytics machine learning algorithms for informing the real-time control of water systems. We welcome real-world examples on the successful application of these methods to facilitate integrated planning and management of water-food-energy-environment systems.

Orals: Tue, 16 Apr | Room 2.31

The oral presentations are given in a hybrid format supported by a Zoom meeting featuring on-site and virtual presentations. The button to access the Zoom meeting appears just before the time block starts.
Chairpersons: Timothy Foster, Hector Macian-Sorribes
08:30–08:35
08:35–08:55
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EGU24-3362
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HS5.2.1
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solicited
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On-site presentation
Marc Muller, Julie Faure, Kyle Davis, Piyush Mehta, Davide Chiarelli, Cristina Rulli, Paolo D'Odorico, Jampel Dell'Angelo, and Leonardo Bertassello

The recent two decades have marked a significant increase in transnational land investments, fueled by growing demands for food, water, and energy. This global land rush, primarily affecting rural areas in low and middle-income countries, where it often contributes to ongoing transitions from smallholder farming into large-scale commercial agriculture. A key aspect of this transition is the inter-sectoral trade-offs at the nexus of food, water, energy, and the environment, where global demands intersect with local health, livelihoods, and ecosystems. Most existing studies have focused on individual impacts of land acquisitions on these sectors, but a comprehensive understanding of (i) the trade-offs across sectors and (ii) their implications for household health and livelihoods is lacking. Our study addresses these gaps, using a clustering technique to analyze a unique dataset of over 160 georeferenced land deals. This method helps categorize the interplay and trade-offs between the impacts on food, energy, water, and the environment. By linking these trade-offs to specific characteristics of land deals, we identify distinct archetypes, each necessitating tailored policy responses. The extent of household health and livelihood impacts varies across these archetypes. We assess these implications using data from approximately 1.3 million households from 22  countries. This novel approach, merging a global analysis of sectoral impacts with local household effects, aims to provide insights for targeted policies to ensure a sustainable and equitable agrarian transition.

How to cite: Muller, M., Faure, J., Davis, K., Mehta, P., Chiarelli, D., Rulli, C., D'Odorico, P., Dell'Angelo, J., and Bertassello, L.:  Inter-Sectoral Trade-offs in Large Scale Land Acquisitions and Implications for Household Health and Livelihood, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3362, 2024.

08:55–09:05
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EGU24-7614
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HS5.2.1
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Bruno Invernizzi, Marco Tangi, Shanti Mahto, Stefano Galelli, and Andrea Castelletti

Global water resources face increasing pressure from growing demands for food, energy, improved living standards, and complex regional water governance. Within the Mekong River basin, these factors triggered the rapid development of several large hydropower dams, provoking cumulative impacts on the river sediment connectivity. Many studies have focused on determining optimal dam portfolios by considering factors such as dam locations and sizes to improve sediment transport downstream. Yet, the potential for dam operations to mitigate dam impact on sediment dynamics while preserving hydropower generation targets has not been explored.  

Our work focuses on the Sekong, Sesan, and Srepok (3S) river basin, an important tributary of the Mekong River, where more than 50 dams have been built over the last two decades. To evaluate the impacts of these dams and their re-operations on sediment trapping and routing and hydropower production, we developed an integrated modelling framework combining models of hydrological processes, dam operation, and sediment connectivity. Specifically, we integrate VICRes, a large-scale hydrological-water management model that dynamically represents water reservoirs and their operations, and D-CASCADE, a dynamic basin-scale sediment routing model. Among the over 50 dams constructed in the basin, our focus is on the 26 largest hydropower dams. Their water release policies are modeled by VICRes through a rule curve characterized by four parameters, which are the maximum and minimum water levels the reservoir should reach and the specific days of the year on which those levels should be attained.

Our results indicate that the 3S river basin has lost approximately 60% of its annual outlet sediment load due to the cumulative impact of its largest hydropower dams. Moreover, the basin is experiencing an annual loss of approximately 0.32% of its total water storage capacity due to sediment trapping by reservoirs. However, smaller reservoirs are experiencing more pronounced reductions in storage capacity with losses reaching up to 3% per year. Ultimately, reservoir sediment depositions and the subsequent decrease in storage capacities are impacting reservoir water releases and, consequently, hydropower production. Despite being minimal, the interaction between hydrology and sediment dynamics exists, and are likely to accumulate as dams continue to operate over long horizons.

We then coupled the integrated model with a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm to derive Pareto-optimal configurations of coordinated water release policies for multiple reservoirs, minimizing trade-offs between energy generation and outlet sediment delivery. We initially selected a subset of 8 reservoirs, optimizing their standard rule curves with EMODPS. Subsequently, a second optimization was conducted, improving reservoir policies by considering a more complex rule curve with 12 parameters. Our analysis reveals that the operational space of the existing reservoir configuration is limited, and dam reoperation can only marginally enhance the 3S sediment loads.  This outlines the importance of integrating reservoir water release strategies with sediment release policies, such as drawdown flushing. By considering these strategies, the tradeoff between hydropower production and outlet sediment loads would have been more pronounced. Consequently, the re-operation of dams could play a more significant role in mitigating hydroelectric production losses.

How to cite: Invernizzi, B., Tangi, M., Mahto, S., Galelli, S., and Castelletti, A.: Reoperating hydropower dams to improve sediment connectivity in the Mekong river basin, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7614, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7614, 2024.

09:05–09:15
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EGU24-10214
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HS5.2.1
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Brecht D'Haeyer, Sonu Khanal, Hester Biemans, Arthur Lutz, Johannes Hunink, and Walter Immerzeel

The Syr Darya River Basin is a transboundary glacier-fed river system, supporting the livelihoods of millions of people across Central Asia. The sustainable allocation of water resources in this basin has become a pressing concern due to the increasing demands coupled with environmental degradation and climate uncertainty. Consequently, developing robust water allocation mechanisms that acknowledge the Water-Energy-Food-Environment-Nexus (WEFE) is vital for sustaining human and ecosystem needs. This study scrutinizes the relationship between upstream and downstream water users in the upper Syr Darya Basin, which encompasses the Uzbek and Kyrgyz Republics, including the Fergana Valley, Central Asia's "breadbasket”.

Whereas the individual effect of climate change on either water demand or supply is widely studied, the interaction between these two, considering local nexus-related systemic dependencies, requires a better understanding to improve sustainable water allocation in the region. For example, climate change may reduce upstream hydropower demands in winter, favouring water supplies in summer elsewhere. Recognizing the intricate relationships among water, energy, food, and the environment, especially in regions with geopolitical complexities like Central Asia, we aim to uncover the feedback mechanisms shaping the WEFE nexus by defining and assessing storylines representing climate and socio-economic change in a coupled cyrospheric-hydrological and water allocation model (SPHY-WEAP).

First, we assess the influence of climate change on reservoir inflows of Toktogul and Andijan, key reservoirs regulating water availability within Ferghana Valley. We force the model with CMIP6 climate simulations to assess changes in reservoir storage and inflows for multiple future time horizons, thereby focussing on potential storage gaps as glaciers shrink and its effect on existing reservoir release patterns. Secondly, we assess the future evolution of water, energy, food, and environmental demands under the combined influence of climate and related socio-economic changes. Hereto, we define representative storylines, integrating insights from policy documents and local stakeholder consultations to depict plausible future pathways. Finally, forcing the coupled SPHY-WEAP allocation model with quantitative storylines, we explore local feedbacks in the intricate relationship between climate change and water availability, supply, and demands. Specific focus will be on how the equilibrium between water supply and demand shifts for varying storylines, thereby pinpointing tipping points where water demands can no longer be met for a given season or throughout the year.

The results of this study are expected to provide a systematic assessment of water-energy-food-environment storylines, revealing how these storylines either facilitate or impede sustainable water management practices in the basin. This study aligns with SDG 6 and lays the groundwork for promoting efficient water allocation strategies and decision-making under climate change to promote transboundary cooperation and long-term water security for all. 

How to cite: D'Haeyer, B., Khanal, S., Biemans, H., Lutz, A., Hunink, J., and Immerzeel, W.: Quantifying the feedbacks between climate change and the WEFE nexus in the transboundary Syr Darya basin, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10214, 2024.

09:15–09:25
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EGU24-7870
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HS5.2.1
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ECS
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On-site presentation
David Gold, Patrick Reed, and Rohini Gupta

The Colorado River is a lifeline for the American Southwest, supporting over 5.5 million irrigated acres of agricultural land and a population of 40 million people. The state of Colorado’s West Slope basins - six subbasins of the Colorado River that lie on the western side of the continental divide - are critical headwaters of the Colorado River, delivering over 60% of inflows to the Colorado River Basin’s (CRB) Lower Basin in an average year. The West Slope basins also play a vital role in supporting the state of Colorado’s local economy and natural environment. Agricultural production and recreational activities supported by water resources within the West Slope basins are estimated to contribute over $6 billion annually to the state’s economy. Streamflow in the West Slope basins sustains populations of endangered fish not found outside the CRB. Balancing the multisectoral water demands in the West Slope basins is an increasing challenge for water managers. Droughts in the 20th and early 21st centuries have reduced reservoir levels, lowered environmental flows, and threatened agricultural production. Internal variability - irreducible uncertainty stemming from interactions across non-linear processes within the hydroclimate system - complicates future vulnerability assessments. The historical streamflow record in the West Slope represents a single realization of an inherently stochastic process, which does not capture the full extent of internal variability and plausible hydroclimatic extremes. Climate change further exacerbates drought vulnerability in the West Slope basins, with significant streamflow declines projected by mid-century.   

This work contributes a detailed analysis of multisectoral drought vulnerabilities in the West Slope basins that systematically accounts for both internal variability and climate change. We contribute a novel multi-site Hidden Markov Model (HMM)-based synthetic streamflow generator to create streamflow across the six West Slope basins that better characterizes the region’s hydroclimate and drought extremes. We then route an ensemble of streamflows generated by the HMM generator through StateMod, the state of Colorado’s water allocation model, to evaluate spatially compounding drought impacts across the West Slope basins. We capture the effects of climate change by perturbing the HMM to generate a climate-adjusted ensemble of streamflows that reflects plausible changes in climate. Our results show that drought events emerging from the system’s stationary internal variability in the absence of climate change can have significant impacts that exceed extreme conditions in the historical record, including unprecedented lows in deliveries to the Lower basin (e.g., Lake Powell), reduced environmental flows, low reservoir levels, and significant agricultural shortages. Our results further illustrate that even relatively modest levels of plausible climate changes can cause a major regime shift where extreme drought impacts become routine. These results can inform future Colorado River planning efforts, and our methodology can be expanded to other snow-dominated regions that face persistent droughts.

How to cite: Gold, D., Reed, P., and Gupta, R.: A Multi-site Hidden Markov Model-Based Synthetic Streamflow Generator to Evaluate Multisectoral Drought Vulnerability in Colorado’s West Slope Basins, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7870, 2024.

09:25–09:35
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EGU24-22014
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HS5.2.1
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Elena De Petrillo, Lan Wang Erlandsson, Marta Tuninetti, Luca Ridolfi, and Francesco Laio

Green water (i.e., precipitation water that infiltrates into the soil and becomes available for plants’ root uptake) is the pillar for food production and biosphere sustainment. However, food production can also compromise the resilience of green water and thus, its potential to sustain the land-water-food-human system.

Despite a large number of scholars having quantified the spatio-temporal evolution of the green water, so far the critical role of local green water resilience to sustain the ecosystem has not been quantified adequately. This means that green water overexploitation due to local factors (which is other than measuring a high green WF) went undetected, whereas omitting moisture recycling implies that the land-use-induced gains and losses of moisture supply to downwind rainfall are ignored that is significant, as around 60-70% of mean global evapotranspiration returns as precipitation over land. Indeed, due to land cover changes in a precipitationshed (i.e., the area supplying evaporation to a downwind location’s rainfall ), gains and losses in precipitation may occur in the evaporationshed (i.e, the downwind region where evaporation from upwind areas precipitates as rainfall).

The aim of this study is  to redefine the green water footprint, which can be used for assessing the resilience and sustainability of green water use for food production addressing feedbacks between upwind land cover changes and downwind changes in precipitation, which can subsequently lead to changes in actual crop evapotranspiration, yields and the relative associated irrigation water demand.

Therefore, we define green water use as a function of the change in evapotranspiration patterns in downwind areas in the emblematic case of deforestation in upwind areas.

By coupling the STEAM water balance model with atmospheric moisture tracking model, we simulate the impact of land cover changes on downwind precipitation. These simulated changes in downwind precipitation allow then the evaluation on crop evapotranspiration in the agricultural hubs in the affected downwind areas, by means of the crop-hydrological model WaterCrop.

Our results shed light on the feedback between perturbation on potential vegetation evapotranspiration, downwind precipitation, actual crop evapotranspiration, crop yield and associated irrigation water demand changes in the downwind regions to better frame the sustainability and resilience of land-water-human systems for food production in the context of land-atmosphere interactions.

How to cite: De Petrillo, E., Erlandsson, L. W., Tuninetti, M., Ridolfi, L., and Laio, F.: Integrating land-atmosphere interactions in the water footprint indicator  , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-22014, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-22014, 2024.

09:35–09:45
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EGU24-5283
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HS5.2.1
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Ángela Valle-García, Nazaret M. Montilla-López, and Carlos Gutiérrez-Martín

The global demand for freshwater has been steadily increasing, aligning with the growth of the world population, the rise in new demands in other economic sectors, and the supply decrease as a consequence of climate change. This trend has resulted in elevated consumption rates. The closure of river basins further intensifies water shortages, necessitating effective demand-side policies, particularly in agriculture. The allocation of water rights is crucial in managing limited water resources. The integration of hydro-economic modeling, a tool combining biophysical and socioeconomic factors, aids in water resource planning and policy formulation.

The primary objective is to analyze the effects of linking a hydro-micro-economic model with a macro-economic model. The study focuses on the Guadalquivir River Basin (GRB) in southern Spain, using a hydro-economic model and a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for the Andalusian economy. The models are interconnected, providing insights into the feedback between the agroeconomic sector and the regional economy.

The hydro-economic model comprises nodes representing the hydrological system and economic agents with agricultural and urban water demands. Agricultural demands are calibrated using Positive Mathematical Programming to simulate farmers adapting to water scarcity. The CGE model, calibrated at a regional level, addresses macroeconomic aspects. The models exchange information on commodity prices and land use changes.

The study applies the Drought Management Protocol of the GRB, reducing water inflow in the basin by 25%. In this way, results indicate that the macroeconomic model mitigates the economic impact of reduced crop area due to drought by increasing prices. Thus, it is demonstrated that from the producer's perspective, more is gained due to this price effect, resulting in an increase of up to 4.5% in the producer's gross margin. The coupling of models enables a comprehensive understanding of the economic effects of drought, taking into account both micro and macroeconomic perspectives. This effect cannot be observed without the linkage to the macro model when considering only the hydro-economic model.

In conclusion, the coupling of a hydro-economic model and a macro-economic model proves effective in addressing changes in commodity prices resulting from drought-induced reductions in crop areas. This integration attenuates the economic impacts of drought by accounting for the price effect.

How to cite: Valle-García, Á., Montilla-López, N. M., and Gutiérrez-Martín, C.: Economic impact of a drought through the integration of hydro-economic and macroeconomic models, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5283, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5283, 2024.

09:45–09:55
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EGU24-10024
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HS5.2.1
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Shoobhangi Tyagi, Sandeep Sahany, Amlendu Dubey, Saroj Kanta Mishra, Dharmendra Saraswat, and Dev Niyogi

Climate change-induced water stress greatly challenges rice productivity, particularly in rainfed regions with limited irrigation infrastructure. These regions, identified as economically water-scarce, could benefit from increased irrigation if appropriate economic resources are made available. However, a current knowledge gap exists regarding how climate-induced economic impacts vary with the transformation from rainfed to irrigated agriculture in economically water-scarce regions. This study investigates the economic implications of climate change under rainfed and irrigated conditions in the near future (2030s). The assessment was done for two shared socio-economic pathways— SSP2-4.5 (moderate) and SSP5-8.5 (extreme) scenarios using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The simulated rice yields were used for estimating economic impacts through an econometric approach. The results suggest that under rainfed conditions, rice yields are projected to change by ~ -15% to -2% and ~ -15% to +2% for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, the transformation of rainfed to irrigated agriculture leads to a positive shift in rice yield by ~ -1% to 7.3% for the SSP2-4.5 scenario and ~ -4% to 7.25% for the SSP5-8.5 scenario. This transformation can help reduce the region’s economic burden by ~$48.8M for SSP2-4.5 scenario and by ~$20.8M for SSP5-8.5 scenario. The implications of short-term drought events on the region’s economic response to climate change will also be discussed. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for the management of highly vulnerable agricultural systems, offering guidance for policymakers aiming to enhance resilience in the face of climate change.

How to cite: Tyagi, S., Sahany, S., Dubey, A., Mishra, S. K., Saraswat, D., and Niyogi, D.: Economic Assessment of Transforming Rainfed to Irrigated Agriculture in a Drought-Prone Region of Central India , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10024, 2024.

09:55–10:05
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EGU24-18042
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HS5.2.1
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Sebastian Arias-Lopez, Hector Macian-Sorribes, Francisco Martinez-Capel, Alberto Garcia-Prats, and Manuel Pulido-Velazquez

Traditional evaluations of the impact of climate change scenarios in water resource management involve top-down approaches, based on predictions from global climate models (GCMs). In contrast, bottom-up strategies provide a more comprehensive understanding of the system's behaviour applying a wide range of climate scenarios based on parametric climatic alterations. By doing so, climate change impacts and subsequent adaptation measures can be assessed taking into account the limits of their availability and how their performance level varies depending on the changing climate conditions, which is quite useful especially when faced with substantial uncertainty.

This study develops a bottom-up approach to evaluate climate change impacts combining weather generators to obtain a wide range of future climates based on parametric alternations of the main climatic patterns; hydroeconomic models to assess the costs and benefits associated with those impacts; and ecosystem models to evaluate how the habitat of fish species would be impacted by climate change. The weather generator for climate variables (precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration) is coupled with a parameter-lumped conceptual hydrological model to generate future time series of streamflow, which are further integrated into a hydroeconomic model that simulate reservoir operation and assesses the economic performance of the river basin water uses.

The weather generator is implemented using MATLAB, in which the annual temperature is modelled by an AR(2) autoregressive model, while annual precipitation follows an AR(0) autoregressive model. Monthly time series are obtained through the method of fragments. The correlation between subbasins is modelled using a linear relationship of the residuals. Monthly evapotranspiration is computed by applying a transformation factor linked to monthly temperature, smoothed through a Fourier Transform series. The conceptual hydrological model is also implemented in a MATLAB script that transforms climate variables into streamflows, which serve as input for the hydroeconomic model of the basin.

The methodology was applied to the semi-arid Jucar River Basin (JRB) in Spain, characterized by multi-annual droughts combined with significant development of irrigated agriculture, which implies a distinct vulnerability to climate change impacts. The methodology maps climate change impacts, defined as parametric changes of precipitation (% of change) and temperature (increase in ºC), to economic benefits and fish habitat. Results show how the economic and environmental performance of the JRB are affected by climate changes, and determines when tipping points demanding adaptation are reached, locating the areas in which the impacts steeply increase.

Acknowledgements:

This study has received funding from the SOS-WATER project under the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under (GA No. 101059264).

How to cite: Arias-Lopez, S., Macian-Sorribes, H., Martinez-Capel, F., Garcia-Prats, A., and Pulido-Velazquez, M.: Bottom-up vulnerability assessment for climate change adaptation in water resource systemsintegrating weather generators and hydroeconomic and ecosystem modelling, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18042, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18042, 2024.

10:05–10:15
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EGU24-18411
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HS5.2.1
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Jia Yi Ng, Xu Zhao, and Hancheng Dai

China faces challenging issues of water scarcity, energy security, and climate change in this century. The Chinese government has committed to reaching carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 and this requires ambitious energy transition strategies. It has also deployed the Three Red Lines (TRLs) policy which aims to limit total annual water use to below 700 km3 by 2030, with different targets for each province. Yet, these water guidelines fail to consider the local water endowment of each province and do not shed light on how current and future water use could put stress on our water resources. This gap could be filled by considering regional freshwater boundary (RFB) instead, which sets a limit for freshwater use based on monthly flow and corresponding environmental flow requirements. By comparing the TRLs targets with RFB, we could identify the gap between these policy-based goals and their practical implementation, and thus design specific regional economic strategies to achieve water targets in a carbon-neutral future. In this study, we first calculate RFBs for each Chinese province using a bottom-up approach by aggregating grid level (0.5°) RFB obtained from 15 different hydrological models to the provincial level. This is then used alongside the TRLs targets within a computable generable equilibrium (CGE) model. The CGE model evaluates the economic and environmental impacts of various scenarios considering carbon neutrality, water use targets, and solutions aimed at mitigating RFB exceedance, such as the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, water efficiency improvement and water reuse strategies. The holistic assessment of China’s climate and water policies reveals opportunities for coordinated policymaking among provinces and elucidates possible pathways for China to balance water, energy, climate and economic goals.

How to cite: Ng, J. Y., Zhao, X., and Dai, H.: Balancing regional freshwater boundaries and carbon neutrality goals in China’s water-energy-environment nexus, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18411, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18411, 2024.

Posters on site: Mon, 15 Apr, 10:45–12:30 | Hall A

The posters scheduled for on-site presentation are only visible in the poster hall in Vienna. If authors uploaded their presentation files, these files are linked from the abstracts below, but only on the day of the poster session.
Display time: Mon, 15 Apr 08:30–Mon, 15 Apr 12:30
Chairpersons: Taher Kahil, Andrea Castelletti
A.36
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EGU24-674
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HS5.2.1
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ECS
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Isha Smiti Thakur, Susan Hegarty, and Jimmy O'Keeffe

Emerging economies are increasingly constructing large hydropower projects to meet growing energy demand. The Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra transboundary basin shared by China, India, and Bangladesh holds enormous untapped hydropower potential, attracting ambitious hydropower development plans in the region. The transboundary basin is a highly biodiverse region sensitive to environmental and anthropogenic stressors. Hydropower projects are advertised as powerful development infrastructure that can provide greater access to clean water and clean energy. However, these projects also present grave environmental challenges including the degradation of ecosystems and their services, biodiversity loss and increased risk of natural hazards like earthquakes, landslides and floods. Further, dams have social and economic effects like population displacement and loss of livelihoods. Such effects are gendered: women are often disproportionately impacted. Stakeholder engagement with indigenous and other local communities is often absent or negligible in planning these hydropower projects. The projects usually export the electricity produced to far-away urban centres, leaving basin populations energy-poor, further aggravating existing inequities in resource access.

This paper presents a systems model examining the interactions between the socio-economic, ecological, hydrological, and institutional structures operating in the river basin to investigate the socio-environmental impacts of hydropower development in the region. The systems model has been conceptualised using stakeholder inputs gathered through fieldwork in the upper Brahmaputra basin. The model will especially examine interlinkages between hydropower development-induced systemic changes and socio-ecological well-being. 

How to cite: Thakur, I. S., Hegarty, S., and O'Keeffe, J.: Utilising a system dynamics framework to investigate socio-environmental impacts of hydropower in the upper Brahmaputra basin , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-674, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-674, 2024.

A.37
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EGU24-870
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HS5.2.1
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ECS
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Zhanwei Liu and Xiaogang He

Power systems are inherently water dependent. Future energy development needs to jointly consider the interaction between power and water systems, especially the stream dynamics related to both water temperature and availability. Such connection is particularly pronounced in thermal and hydro power plants, where once-through cooling systems face disruptions from high intake water temperature and water scarcity, and hydropower generation is affected by drought conditions. Equally important is the impact of power system operations on water temperature and availability. For instance, warm water discharged from thermal power plants can increase water temperature, while cool water released from reservoir bottoms can cause temperature declines. Additionally, hydropower operations can alter water availability through changes in reservoir storage. Despite the importance of those factors, existing electricity capacity expansion models typically do not fully consider such feedbacks between stream dynamics and power system operations, as they lack the capability to accurately represent cascade reservoir operations and cooling processes for thermal power plants at sufficiently high spatial-temporal resolutions. To address this research gap, we develop an integrated model coupling a hydrological model (Community Water Model, CWatM), a stream temperature model (River Basin Model, RBM), and a novel electricity capacity expansion model (Pathways for Renewable Energy Planning coupling Short-term Hydropower OperaTion, PREP-SHOT, https://github.com/PREP-NexT/PREP-SHOT) to better represent the two-way feedback between stream dynamics and power system operations. The coupled model, applied in Mainland Southeast Asia featured by a diverse array of hydropower reservoirs and thermal power plants, supports informed, sustainable, and environmentally friendly planning for future energy development in the region.

How to cite: Liu, Z. and He, X.: Improved Representations of Water-Power System Interactions to Inform Clean Energy Transition for Mainland Southeast Asia, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-870, 2024.

A.38
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EGU24-1127
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HS5.2.1
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ECS
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Beatrice Sambo, Silvia Cocuccioni, Fabio Carnelli, Anna Sperotto, Stefano Terzi, Silvia Torresan, Massimiliano Pittore, and Andrea Critto

Water, Energy and Food represent an interconnected nexus, with Ecosystems and the services they provide inextricably bound up in the “WEFE nexus”. Within these sectors, policies and decisions have traditionally been implemented independently, sometimes resulting in a lack of coordination and significant trade-offs among different sectors, manifesting in challenging management of different resources. To proficiently oversee resources and prevent conflicts among users, numerous pertinent policies should be thoughtfully crafted to tackle the interconnectedness of the nexus across various spatial and temporal scales.

The Adige River basin, located in the northeast area of Italy, presents a complex institutional, socio-economic, and bio-physical context; this situation is reflected on the management of resources’ availability, particularly during water scarcity emergencies. Indeed, due to their sectorial nature, these policies fail to comprehensively consider the impacts on other sectors, creating complexities in effective management. The purpose of this analysis is to develop a conceptual model which allows the identification and qualitatively characterization of the relations among the WEFE sectors supported by sectoral policies and by a set of measures aimed at support the ecosystems and their services in a WEFE nexus perspective. The measures, represented by quantitative targets, will be translated into future scenarios to assess ecosystem services based on future land uses.

As a first step, after gathering peer-reviewed literature, grey literature, and sectoral policies, an initial conceptualization of the sectors engaged in the WEFE Nexus was conducted. The conceptual model tries to provide insight into the entry points of significant WEFE policies within the nexus, while also initiating an understanding of the broader systemic effects that potential policy implementation might have. It is a visual depictions of systems that encompass crucial variables and illustrate their interconnections. The integration of local polices within the conceptual model is fundamental in identifying relevant interconnections, tailored for the case study area. To pinpoint measures and goals intended to support ecosystem services in the Adige River basin, policies associated with the ecosystems have been emphasized. Additionally, other policies have been examined from diverse sectors that target ecosystems and land components, with the objective of defining potential measures viable for future scenarios, all aimed at bolstering the ecosystem services component. Subsequently, the measures determined by the selected policies have been examined and grouped according to their typology: regulation, market and incentives. For each measure, one or more targets have been outlined based on the analyzed policies and on stakeholders’ perspectives. The selected targets are important for determining whether the defined connections among sectors can be supported by the policies. Indeed, engaging stakeholders representing diverse WEFE sectors, including governmental bodies, local communities, academia, is vital in undertaking this collaborative approach because they collaborate with knowledge, expertise, and perspectives crucial for defining targets characterizing the future scenarios that preserve and enhance ecosystem services while ensuring sustainable development within the Adige River basin.  

 The results of this study are part of the Horizon2020 project NEXOGENESIS and pave the way for future analysis on the assessment of ecosystem services based on future land use scenarios.

How to cite: Sambo, B., Cocuccioni, S., Carnelli, F., Sperotto, A., Terzi, S., Torresan, S., Pittore, M., and Critto, A.: Stakeholders’ engagement for the identification of measures supporting ecosystem services within the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) nexus in the Adige River basin (Italy)., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1127, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1127, 2024.

A.39
|
EGU24-2396
|
HS5.2.1
Chang Liu

It is important to analyze the efficiency of agricultural water and land resources utilization in macro-regions from the perspective of synergistic inputs and "economic-social-ecological" benefits for the sustainability of agricultural production. This paper clarified the connotation of agricultural water and land resources use efficiency by combining the broad concept of water resources and the characteristics of "multiple inputs - multiple outputs" in agricultural production, constructed the Super-SBM(Super slacks based measure) model and Super-Undesirable-SBM(Super undesirable slacks based measure) model using data envelopment analysis to measure the production allocation efficiency. The Super-SBM model and Super-Undesirable-SBM model were used to measure the efficiency of agricultural water and land resources utilization of the concept. Agricultural water and land resources utilization efficiency without considering ecological benefits (WLUE), agricultural water and land resources utilization efficiency with considering ecological benefits (WLUEE), water resource utilization efficiency loss (WUEL) and arable land resource utilization efficiency loss (LUEL) were measured for 51 counties in the study area, taking the Shandong Yellow Diversion Irrigation District as an example. By comparing and analyzing the WLUE and WLUEE measurement results, WUEL and LUEL decomposition results, the characteristics of agricultural water and soil resource utilization and the size difference of the two resource utilization efficiency losses in each county of the study area were revealed, and the counties of the study area were classified into four types: green and efficient production type, ordinary efficient production type, green and inefficient production type and ordinary inefficient production type. This paper proposed targeted improvement measures for agricultural soil and water resource use efficiency in each county and a new perspective for the study of agricultural soil and water resource utilization efficiency. The research results are conducive to promoting the sustainable development of agricultural production in the study area.

How to cite: Liu, C.: Agricultural Water and Land Resources Use Efficiency Based on Green Production and Resources Synergy, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2396, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2396, 2024.

A.40
|
EGU24-3487
|
HS5.2.1
Georgia Konstantina Sakki, Andrea Castelletti, Christos Makropoulos, and Andreas Efstratiadis

The Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem nexus is characterized by synergies, complementarities and conflicts, and thus its management is a demanding task. This becomes more challenging when socioeconomic influences are embedded. Key components of this nexus are multipurpose water reservoirs that provide drinking water, electricity, agricultural water for food production, and ecosystem services. These systems are driven by inherently uncertain processes, both hydroclimatic and human-induced (e.g., legal regulations, strategic management policies, real-time controls, and market rules), and thus their management should account for them. In this vein, this research proposes an uncertainty-aware methodology for assessing the long-term performance of hydropower reservoirs. Specifically, we investigate and describe in stochastic terms the main uncertain drivers i.e., rainfall, water demands, and energy scheduling, and eventually explore the cascade effects of the uncertainty chain. The modeling framework is stress-tested on a hydropower reservoir in Greece, Plastiras, which has been subject to challenging socioeconomic conflicts during its entire 65-year history. To estimate the water targets, we employ a statistical analysis of historical abstractions, concluding that the irrigation demand is strongly correlated with the reservoir level while it is negatively correlated with antecedent rainfall. For the estimation of the power plant’s energy target, we adopt a copula-based approach, in which the desirable releases for energy production are dependent on day-ahead electricity prices. In particular, we adopt three policies, i.e., conservative, median, and energy-centric, that refer to 95%, 50%, and 5% quantiles of the copula. Finally, to account for the hydroclimatic and market process uncertainties, we are taking advantage of stochastic models for the generation of synthetic rainfall and electricity price data, respectively. Our findings indicate that the cascade effects of the joint uncertainties are crucial for all operation policies. Specifically, in terms of profitability the energy-centric and the median are similar, while from a water supply and irrigation reliability perspective, the uncertainty range of this policy is wider, thus making it unacceptable for some scenarios. Consequently, the conventional approach of ignoring uncertainty in policy selection may result in misleading perceptions for the operator, eventually guiding to sub-optimal reservoir management. 

How to cite: Sakki, G. K., Castelletti, A., Makropoulos, C., and Efstratiadis, A.: Trade-offs in hydropower reservoir operation under the chain of uncertainty, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3487, 2024.

A.41
|
EGU24-3584
|
HS5.2.1
|
ECS
Jessica Fennell, Peter Burek, Mikhail Smilovic, Zeeshan Virk, Ali Torabi Haghighi, Stephanie Eisner, Stein Beldring, Wai Kwok Wong, Jens Kværner, Peter Berg, Thomas Bossard, and Björn Klöve

Water, energy, and food security are threatened by changes in climate. Shifts in rainfall patterns and increases in temperature affect availability of catchment water resources, particularly when hydrological regimes are rainfall-limited, snow-dominant or influenced by glaciers. The sectors dependent on those water resources are therefore more at risk. To evaluate resource availability, sector interdependencies and overall vulnerability of a catchment, a nexus approach can be used. More holistic solutions can then be developed, increasing the catchment’s resilience to changes in future. However, difficulties lie in capturing the dynamics of climate, land, energy, and water systems together. In Norway for instance, this often includes snow, glaciers, and the management of reservoirs for hydropower production, and few nexus methods include these features. To address this, we selected the Community Water Model (CWatM) and made several new developments. CWatM is a widely available, easily adjustable hydrological model on a 1km x 1km daily resolution. It has the facility to include multiple crop types, and domestic, agriculture and industry water demands, therefore highly suitable for nexus assessment. The new developments to CWatM mean that seasonal changes in both reservoir and glacier water storage can now be assessed, so how these have affected, and may affect resilience to changes in climate in future could be evaluated. To test the model developments, we applied the CWatM model to the Otta catchment in Innlandet, Norway. Three large glacial bodies, and four hydropower reservoirs provide water storage to an otherwise rain-limited catchment (~300mm/year). Water resources are required for consistent hydropower production throughout the year, agriculture, and forestry, as well as white water rafting-dependent tourism. These competing demands, alongside the melting of glaciers due to climate change, have the potential to put a large amount of strain on the limited water resources. Results showed that CWatM with the new developments successfully represented the dynamics of stream discharge, glaciers, and reservoir water storage in the Otta catchment. Future work will focus on assessing the vulnerability and resilience of the Otta catchment to climatic extremes given historic and potential future changes in storage with climate change. Wider application of CWatM and the new developments could improve nexus evaluation of other catchments in Norway and worldwide and highlight opportunities for greater resilience to changes in climate.

How to cite: Fennell, J., Burek, P., Smilovic, M., Virk, Z., Torabi Haghighi, A., Eisner, S., Beldring, S., Kwok Wong, W., Kværner, J., Berg, P., Bossard, T., and Klöve, B.: Including glacier storage change and reservoir management into the Community Water Model to assess vulnerabilities and enhance resilience in the Climate-Land-Energy-Water nexus, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3584, 2024.

A.42
|
EGU24-7719
|
HS5.2.1
Shikun Sun, Yali Yin, Xiaobo Luan, and Jingxin Sun

With the growth of global population and sustained socio-economic development, the demand for food continues to rise. However, increasing water scarcity poses significant challenges to agricultural production, coupled with environmental issues such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As the world's most populous country, China faces even more severe water and environmental challenges in food production. Changes in the spatial patterns of food cultivation have implications for regional water consumption and GHG emissions. This study, based on the virtual water theory, explored the water-carbon effects resulting from the evolving spatial patterns of grain production and assessed their impact on sustainability goals in China. The findings reveal that the spatial pattern of grain production is influenced not only by regional meteorological conditions and arable land resources but also by shifts in industrial structure. Due to changes in industrial patterns and population movement, the center of grain production moved opposite to that of the economy and population, gradually shifting northward. While inter-regional grain transportation yields water-saving benefits, it simultaneously increases water resource pressure in the northern output areas by over 20%, creating a conflict between global water conservation and regional water use escalation. Changes in the spatial pattern of grain cultivation also affect the regional water environment and GHG emissions. The gray water footprint of the grain export region is higher, doubling with the increase in the scale of grain exports. The larger the scale of grain cultivation and transportation, the higher the GHG emissions of the region. Notably, the increase in GHG emissions for the grain export region surpasses that of the import region. In terms of sustainability goals, the current evolution of the spatial pattern of grain cultivation contributes to eradicating hunger, ensuring water resource security, promoting economic development, and enhancing infrastructure, but with obvious spatial heterogeneity. Considering national development planning, regional industrial structure, and population flow trends, the long-term operation of the "north-south water transfer" project – a virtual water trade pattern – poses a crucial challenge. Balancing overall development with local sustainability is paramount. In addition to adopting water-saving and emission-reduction measures in the production chain, optimizing the virtual water trade pattern, constructing a water-saving dietary structure, and optimizing the planting structure through demand-side guidance and macro policies are essential. This holistic approach will yield a counter effect on the production side, ultimately achieving water-saving and emission-reduction goals in both production and consumption.

How to cite: Sun, S., Yin, Y., Luan, X., and Sun, J.: Assessment of water-carbon effects on the evolution of spatial patterns of grain production in China, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7719, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7719, 2024.

A.43
|
EGU24-7737
|
HS5.2.1
Chiara Arrighi, Marco De Simone, and Fabio Castelli

The objective of the European Water Framework Directive WFD (60/2000/EC) is to achieve or maintain at least a good ecological status of surface water bodies also by identifying appropriate e-flows. Water Management Plans issued by the Hydrographic District Authorities, based on the knowledge of the amount of water resources available, define e-flows and permitted water abstractions to support many human activities, e.g. domestic, agricultural etc. The objective of this work is to assess if the theoretical restoration of natural flows in river catchments allows to achieve a good ecological status of rivers. The method is based on the evaluation of natural and actual flows based on a 20-years water balance simulation implemented with a distributed, vector&raster based hydrological model capable of describing anthropogenic alterations, e.g., point abstractions, releases, reservoir regulations, etc. A new dimensionless index of eco-hydrological distance is defined to measure how far is a river flow from its ecological objectives based on actual flow regime and pressures acting on the catchment (e.g., land use, climate). The method is applied to a region in central Italy, with ca. 11,000 river reaches and mediterranean climate, where almost 50% of water bodies currently fails to achieve WFD objectives. The results show that for the summer season, which is the driest one in the study area, most of the rivers are pushed towards the limits of bad ecological status. Moreover, in 48% of rivers the summer natural flows, if restored, will not guarantee a good ecological status, due to the significant eco-hydrological distance from the target e-flows.

 

Ackonowledgements

This study was carried out within the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005). The study also received funding from the Hydrographic District of the Northern Appenines, Florence (Italy) Agreement “Esecuzione delle attività finalizzate alla redazione dei bilanci idrici su base modellistica dei corpi idrici superficiali appartenenti ai bacini toscani del distretto idrografico dell’Appennino Settentrionale ed alla definizione della metodologia da utilizzare per la definizione del deflusso ecologico”.

How to cite: Arrighi, C., De Simone, M., and Castelli, F.: Is the restoration of natural flows enough to reach a good ecological status of rivers?, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7737, 2024.

A.44
|
EGU24-9029
|
HS5.2.1
|
ECS
|
Janine A. de Wit, Marjolein van Huijgevoort, Jos van Dam, Gé van den Eertwegh, and Ruud Bartholomeus

Climate change, weather extremes, economic growth, urbanization and increased food production, among other things, are making it more complex to guarantee sufficient freshwater in agricultural and economic sectors. Historically, the Dutch agricultural water management focused on water discharge, which makes it now more vulnerable to droughts. A change is needed to anticipate both wet and dry extremes. Current pipe drainage systems (existing in 34 % of the agricultural fields), installed to discharge water, could be modified to systems to retain and recharge water too. Doing so, so called controlled drainage with subirrigation (CD-SI) systems could be a viable measure to i) discharge water only when needed and ii) retain and iii) recharge water when possible. We show data (years 2017-2022) and process-based model output of four experimental sites at the Dutch Pleistocene uplands where CD-SI is applied. Results show that CD-SI could significantly raise the groundwater level at field scale and increase soil moisture availability to plant roots, leading to higher crop yields. Effects of subirrigation are strongly dependent to i) the geohydrological site characteristics, like a resistance layer to limit excessive downward seepage, ii) sufficiently high ditch levels to prevent fast drainage, and iii) the consideration of how much water is supplied relative to acceptance of drought stress (and thus crop yield). Field experiments show that the water supply for CD-SI could be very large. We show how to limit the required water supply, using automated and online control of CD-SI systems. We use actual field measurements on groundwater levels and soil moisture conditions, weather forecasts and field scale hydrological modeling (using the Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant model SWAP) to automatically control CD-SI systems. Doing so, required water supply and drainage level are managed daily, based on the actual and future hydrological conditions, and plant water and oxygen demand, including the acceptance of a percentage of crop’s drought stress.  Results show that significant reductions in water demand for CD-SI systems could be obtained, if only relatively minor reductions in crop yield are accepted.

How to cite: de Wit, J. A., van Huijgevoort, M., van Dam, J., van den Eertwegh, G., and Bartholomeus, R.: Controlled drainage with subirrigation: automatic control to manage freshwater use, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9029, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9029, 2024.

A.45
|
EGU24-9415
|
HS5.2.1
|
ECS
Wei Xia, Matteo Giuliani, Emilio Politti, Hector Macian-Sorribes, Sandra Ricart, Sebastian Arias-Lopez, Taher Kahil, Manuel Pulido-Velázquez, and Andrea Castelletti

Water resources face increasing pressure globally and regionally driven by rising water, energy and food demand, resulting in extensive resource abstraction and severe environmental consequences, including diminished water quantity and quality, groundwater depletion, and ecosystem degradation. The escalating impacts of climate change further compound these challenges by altering water availability and intensifying extreme events like droughts and floods. Addressing these issues necessitates the urgent establishment of a Safe Operating Space (SOS) for water systems, ensuring reliable and clean water supply for human activities and ecosystems in a changing climate and society. 

While various analytical frameworks have emerged to assess components of the water resources SOS, predominantly at a global scale (e.g., water planetary boundaries), their adoption in local and regional water management remains limited. Existing frameworks often lack comprehensive acknowledgement of relevant local and regional dimensions, including hydrological, infrastructure, ecological, and human processes. Moreover, spatial and temporal granularity tends to be insufficient for providing locally and regionally relevant information and for effectively engaging and supporting stakeholders. This is particularly evident in regions with high exposure to water scarcity where the complexity of infrastructure development and resource management is high. To bridge this gap, there is a crucial need to define the SOS framework at decision-relevant spatial scales, involving integrated efforts in data collection and modelling while also fostering a continuous dialogue with stakeholders to facilitate local and regional knowledge exchange. 

Our goal is to define and understand the SOS for water systems at local and regional scales to support the co-design of actionable management pathways. We propose a multi-dimensional SOS evaluation framework for local and regional water resources systems (SOS-Water) with four key components: 1) co-development of future scenarios and pathways, 2) integration of water system models (e.g., global hydrological models) and local and regional impact models, 3) identification of water system indicators for impact assessment with associated failure thresholds, and 4) determination of the multi-dimensional SOS for water systems. The SOS for the local and regional water systems is initially computed under baseline conditions, representing the status quo, and subsequently evaluated under diverse climate and socio-economic scenarios and management pathways. The multi-dimensional SOS, derived from the integrated modelling system, depicts performance for each indicator under varying conditions and is reinforced with different hierarchized objectives defined by the stakeholders through an inclusive and iterative participatory approach. Here, we will present the conceptual structure of the SOS-Water framework and some preliminary results of its evaluation for the Jucar River Basin (Spain), which is subject to significant water scarcity due to ongoing climate-induced impacts.  

How to cite: Xia, W., Giuliani, M., Politti, E., Macian-Sorribes, H., Ricart, S., Arias-Lopez, S., Kahil, T., Pulido-Velázquez, M., and Castelletti, A.: A Multi-dimensional Safe Operating Space Evaluation Framework for Regional Water Resources Systems, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9415, 2024.

A.46
|
EGU24-10135
|
HS5.2.1
Safa Baccour, Julio Berbel, Carlos Gutierrez, and Esther Diaz-Cano

Increasing climate-related water stress and growing water demand are challenging the goal of achieving food and water security in many basins around the world.. Addressing the problem requires the integration of sectoral policies based on interdisciplinary knowledge and sustainable management strategies. This study presents the development of an innovative and dynamic optimization framework that integrates a detailed representation of hydrological and technological constraints while accounting for the feedback between sectors (agriculture, urban, industrial, golf, and livestock). The hydroeconomic model has been applied in Axarquía (Spain) as a case study to evaluate the performance of water allocation and management among several users, determine the cost of water scarcity, and design sustainable water management interventions under future climate conditions. The policy analysis offers insights into the effects of alternative management strategies regarding cost of water supply from different water sources (including surface water diversion, groundwater pumping, non-conventional water production, and reservoirs). Our results highlight the potential of policy options for increasing water availability and suggest the most cost-effective and feasible options. The findings provide efficient water allocation plans between competing sectors, emphasizing the importance of using non-conventional water resources, such as desalinated water and wastewater, which help to save limited conventional resources and play an increasingly important role in meeting rising water demands. These critical results could help decision-makers to bring about efficient water allocation planning among sectors and advance resilience and adaptation to climate water stress. Axarquía’s issues and challenges light a path to relevance for other river basins internationally.

How to cite: Baccour, S., Berbel, J., Gutierrez, C., and Diaz-Cano, E.: Addressing Water Challenges in Southern Spain: A Comprehensive Assessment and Sustainable Management Approach, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10135, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10135, 2024.

A.47
|
EGU24-13776
|
HS5.2.1
Interpreting transboundary water resources system operation using machine learning
(withdrawn)
Guang Yang, Matteo Giuliani, Andrea Castelletti, and Zengchuan Dong
A.48
|
EGU24-15428
|
HS5.2.1
|
ECS
Xinyuan Yue, Ata Joodavi, Laura Ercoli, Luca Sebastiani, Fernando Nardi, and Rudy Rossetto

Human societies and the whole planet are facing a number of challenges, due to climate and global changes, including freshwater scarcity and increase in demand for food and energy. Groundwater is a valuable resource supporting life, ecosystems, agriculture, and in general several human activities. Compared to surface water, groundwater has a longer temporal buffer, wider spatial distribution and more reliable water quality, making it a major source of freshwater in many areas of the world.

The concept of Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus has been proposed to highlight the complex interactions between water, agricultural production and energy, in order to ensure an integrated planning and management for these main assets. In such a context, groundwater plays a key role in the WEF Nexus, but the interdependencies with the agricultural and the energy sectors and their synergistic impacts have been rarely evaluated.

This work aims at addressing this issue by means of a systematic review searching the Scopus database for scientific articles published up to December 2023. Our search resulted in a total of 392 papers, and after analyzing all of them, we identified 217 papers suitable for our current research objectives, and an additional 3 papers were included by snowballing.

Groundwater is the main source for irrigation in many parts of the world. Inefficient irrigation may be one cause of aquifer overexploitation, while increasing efficiency may be thought of as a way to save groundwater. However, there are several cases where technological improvements in turn, may call for larger irrigated areas, hence creating a loop. At the same time irrigated agriculture increases the use of fertilizers and pesticides, which in turn means larger energy consumption and CO2 emissions for their production, transportation and distribution. Energy is needed in farming for groundwater pumping, and in some cases routing. Energy may be needed also for treating groundwater to drinking standards. Competition for groundwater may exist between the industrial (including energy production) sectors and the agricultural one. Solutions to reduce groundwater exploitation (i.e. reuse of treated wastewater or desalinated water) may in turn increase energy consumption and decrease environmental quality. Our work provides a matrix to highlight the most relevant interdependencies among the groundwater resource, energy and agricultural production in order to support sustainable planning and development.

 

Acknowledgement

This contribution is presented within the framework of the NEXUS-NESS project. The NEXUS-NESS received funding from the PRIMA Programme, an Art.185 initiative supported and funded under Horizon 2020, the European Union’s Framework Programme for Research and Innovation.

How to cite: Yue, X., Joodavi, A., Ercoli, L., Sebastiani, L., Nardi, F., and Rossetto, R.: Unravelling the role of groundwater in the Water-Energy-Food NEXUS, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15428, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15428, 2024.

A.49
|
EGU24-16004
|
HS5.2.1
|
ECS
|
Derya Sadak, Nick van de Giesen, and Edo Abraham

Integrated modelling of energy and water systems in the CLEWs (Climate, Land, Energy, and Water-systems) framework has significantly advanced our understanding of the intricate interactions among scarce sources such as water, energy, and food. This framework brings meaningful insights and quantitative results using modelling tools aligned with practical planning scenarios. Accordingly, this nexus approach enables policy and scenario analyses tailored to the sustainable development goals and the specific needs of countries, governments, and sectoral authorities.

Some open-source modelling tools provide a broad interface for incorporating water and energy planning assessments, which contribute to the development of various soft-linking models. In general, open-source energy modelling systems (such as OSeMOSYS) facilitate the simulation and optimization of energy systems on a regional and national level. However, OSeMOSYS has a notable limitation in modelling the spatial distribution of energy sources, demand, and infrastructure. In particular, the geographical location of energy sources impacts various factors, such as extraction costs, transmission and distribution efficiency, and environmental concerns such as carbon emissions.

This study aims to develop an integrated modelling approach for these associated costs, environmental impacts, and potential interdependencies between energy and water systems by explicitly capturing the spatial distribution of energy storage, energy sources, demand, and supply infrastructure. Integrating the Next Energy Modeling system for Optimization (NEMO), Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP), and Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis aims to identify optimal energy pathways considering environmental aspects, cost-effectiveness, and sustainable development goals. The proposed methodology aims to enable dispatch modelling of energy options with a sufficient temporal resolution and structure the interactions of CLEWs by explicitly accounting for the spatial distribution of energy sources, water resources, and infrastructure. This approach can provide a more accurate assessment of interdependencies and potential trade-offs.

The research outcomes will contribute to basin management and CLEWs studies, advancing the understanding of energy-water dynamics and offering insights into sustainable solutions for the Volta and Tana River Basins, in West and East Africa respectively. We present a systematic outline of our project and a preliminary example of an energy transition in the Volta River Basin using a spatially explicit modelling approach.  

 

How to cite: Sadak, D., van de Giesen, N., and Abraham, E.: Increasing the Spatial Resolution in CLEWs Studies: An Integrated Modelling Approach for Water-Energy-Food Systems, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16004, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16004, 2024.

A.50
|
EGU24-17546
|
HS5.2.1
|
ECS
|
Samar Asad, Reetik-Kumar Sahu, Dor Fridman, Barbara Willaarts, and Taher Kahil

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is struggling with a continuous decline in water availability, attributed to climate change and variability, exacerbating the existing water scarcity. At the same time, factors such as population growth, urbanization, economic development and mismanagement further stress the scarce water resources. This study aims to assess the impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on the availability and use of water resources and related economic and environmental conditions in the MENA region at high spatial and temporal resolutions, in order to provide insights into cost-effective and sustainable water management options to reduce water scarcity. To do so, we apply a set of potential future climate and socio-economic change scenarios, based on combinations of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and informed by a review of regional development visions and consultations with key regional experts. Scenario simulations are conducted using the hydro-economic model ECHO in combination with the hydrological model CWatM at subbasin and monthly levels for the whole MENA region. Results of this study shows the escalating deficit in renewable water resources and the rising water demand, exacerbating water scarcity across the majority of the MENA countries. Therefore, meeting the increasing water demand becomes an even greater challenge in the region. To address this challenge, our results underscore the need for a more efficient allocation of water resources among sectors and subbasins at the regional level and a shift towards more advanced water conservation and reliable water supply technologies.

Keywords: Hydro-economic assessment, Water scenarios, Water scarcity, MENA region.      

How to cite: Asad, S., Sahu, R.-K., Fridman, D., Willaarts, B., and Kahil, T.: Hydro-economic assessment of the impact of climate and socio-economic changes on water resources in the MENA region, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17546, 2024.

A.51
|
EGU24-19926
|
HS5.2.1
Stefania Santoro, Wendy Francesconi, Denyse Mello, Alessandro Pagano, and Raffaele Giordano

The 'Biodiversity-Climate-Society' (BCS) Nexus deals with the interconnections among climate, ecological, and social systems and is in principle similar to the well-known Water Energy Food Environment (WEFE) Nexus. Basically, they both focus on the interdependencies among sectors and key resources, and aim at understanding how sectors (and agents operating in each sector) interact each other. The idea behind the BCS Nexus reflects the need for a deeper understanding of the challenges that also involving WEFE, due to the existence of physical heterogeneity, uncertainty, and non-linearity relationships among environmental and social systems. The BCS Nexus involves embedding water-related challenges in a broader spectrum in which managing the trade-offs related to the use of the resource among the climate aspect, biodiversity alteration and ecosystem degradation, social and economic and dynamics.

Within this framework, the present work specifically contributes to the scientific debate related to the BCS Nexus, proposing an approach for the transition from Nexus thinking (i.e. understanding the complexity) to Nexus doing (i.e. managing the complexity) in the analysis of complex value chains. The research activities are being performed within the European BIOTRAILS project (HE, GA 101082008).

System Dynamic Modeling (SDM) approaches, specifically based on the use of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs), have been used to support a better understanding of the BCS Nexus. CLDs are used for a more holistic and accurate representation of the interconnections among sectors and to facilitate the visualization of inter-sectoral relationships. The value added of the proposed approach is that CLDs are built in a participatory manner, thus involving stakeholders through different activities in model building and validation. Face-to-face interviews, focus groups and stakeholder workshops are used for the purpose.

CLDs are then analyzed through a structural and a descriptive analysis. The former is based on the use of centrality metrics, from graph theory, that help identify key variables in the system. The latter is based on the analysis of feedback loops. They jointly allow to formulate hypotheses on the potential dynamic evolution of the Nexus challenges based on their position within the system and to identify the elements that could generate change.

The methodology has been developed for all the BIOTRAILS case studies, but the present work deals with the case study of the activity of handicrafts production in the Amazonian state of Rondonia (Brazil). The area is undergoing severe ecosystem degradation due to the overexploitation of water and soil, logging activities, and infrastructure development, which have repercussions on biodiversity and the hydrogeological control of forests with effects on the local climate. In addition, unauthorized activities also compromise the livability of indigenous communities.

Participatory SDM shows relevant potential in supporting the integration of multiple Nexus components into a single, unified model. It offers insights into the identification of potential interventions to support resource management by policy and non-policy makers, and improving the society-science-policy interface. Furthermore, the participatory construction of the model serves as a powerful communication tool to engage stakeholders, foster dialogue, explore alternative futures, make informed decisions, and plan management choices that promote sustainable management of BCS Nexus.

How to cite: Santoro, S., Francesconi, W., Mello, D., Pagano, A., and Giordano, R.: A Participatory System Dynamic Modelling approach to manage Biodiversity-Climate-Society Nexus. The case study of handicraft production in the Amazon Forest, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19926, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19926, 2024.