BG8.13 | From Long-Term Flux Observation and Ecosystem Research Networks to Individual Applications - Benefits to Science and Society
From Long-Term Flux Observation and Ecosystem Research Networks to Individual Applications - Benefits to Science and Society
Convener: Andreas Ibrom | Co-conveners: George Burba, Marilyn Roland, Stefan Metzger, Susanne WiesnerECSECS, Natalia Kowalska, Dario Papale
Orals
| Thu, 18 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
 
Room 2.23
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X1
Posters virtual
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X1
Orals |
Thu, 14:00
Wed, 16:15
Wed, 14:00
This session is merged from the sessions "Long-Term Flux Observation and Ecosystem Research Networks - Benefits for Science and Society" and "Using Flux Measurement for Immediate Societal Benefits".

The first part serves as a communication platform for members, users and stakeholders of
distributed continental and global scale research infrastructures for long-term flux observation and ecosystems research. These scientific networks institutionalise collaborations within and across science disciplines and between data collection and use. The net-working is supported by stakeholders at various scales and motivated by their various expectations, basically, in a broader sense, the products’ usefulness for society. The temporal scope of this collaboration is unlimited and sustainability of the support must be earned by the relevance of the outcomes from in the various stakeholders’ perspectives. This relationship poses a communication challenge which we address in this session.

Specific topics are:
- new developments and discussions from within the network community,
- unique and novel results that were made possible from the unique supports from the networks, and
- relevance of products from these networks for stakeholders and the society in general.

The second part of the session, organized through research-industry collaboration between CarbonDew CoP, University of Wisconsin, Battelle, LI-COR Biosciences, and Water for Food Global Institute welcomes new ideas and existing examples of how to better utilize direct flux measurements for immediate societal benefits.

These can range broadly including using directly measured ET for irrigation scheduling to avoid loss of water and reduce the price of food, using directly measured CO2 fluxes for agricultural or forest carbon sequestration and offsets, directly measuring CH4 fluxes for leak quantification from storage facilities or for optimization of landfill management, etc. The secondary products could include the use of instantaneous water use efficiency (a ratio of CO2 and H2O fluxes) for fertigation and reduction in fertilizer needs, the use of tower-derived GPP to tune remote sensing products for insurance and intelligence, validate models and ecological forecasts, and numerous other applications.

Orals: Thu, 18 Apr | Room 2.23

Chairpersons: Natalia Kowalska, Susanne Wiesner, Marilyn Roland
14:00–14:05
New methods for network development and use
14:05–14:15
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EGU24-6214
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Pedro Henrique Herig Coimbra, Benjamin Loubet, Olivier Laurent, Laura Bignotti, Mathis Lozano, Matthias Mauder, Bernard Heinesch, Jonathan Bitton, and Michel Ramonet

Global surface temperatures continue to rise, with projections indicating over 2°C warming by 2100, primarily attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Urban areas, responsible for 70% of global emissions, are focal points for climate change mitigation. The PAUL Cities project aims to monitor emissions reduction in megapoles. Current monitoring infrastructures like ICOS focus on atmospheric, oceanic, and ecosystem measurements. This study explores the potential of using slow-response analyzers on tall atmospheric towers for Eddy Covariance flux computations, addressing technical challenges and height-induced complexities. Additionally, a novel wavelet-based method is proposed for attributing fluxes to biogenic and anthropogenic sources, using carbon monoxide as a distinctive tracer. Results from sites near Paris demonstrate the feasibility and versatility of these approaches, offering valuable insights for urban emission monitoring strategies worldwide.

How to cite: Herig Coimbra, P. H., Loubet, B., Laurent, O., Bignotti, L., Lozano, M., Mauder, M., Heinesch, B., Bitton, J., and Ramonet, M.: Advances in Urban Greenhouse Gas Monitoring: Integrating Slow-Response Atmospheric Towers and Wavelet-Based Techniques for Flux Measurements and Attribution, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6214, 2024.

14:15–14:25
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EGU24-7413
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On-site presentation
Georg Jocher, Natalia Kowalska, Heping Liu, Sonia Wharton, Leonardo Montagnani, and Dario Papale

The eddy covariance (EC) method is the standard technique for determining forest ecosystem-atmosphere turbulent exchange, however, it encounters a significant challenge: the air masses below the canopy often become decoupled from the air masses above it. Consequently, the EC measurements of scalar fluxes (e.g. H2O and particularly CO2) above the canopy can be biased due to missing signals from below-canopy processes. This decoupling is strongly site dependent and influenced by atmospheric conditions, canopy properties and tower-surrounding topography. Multiple approaches have been developed in the recent decades to address decoupling (e.g. u* filtering, quality flags for flux measurements, storage change evaluations, direct advection measurements), however, all of them appeared to be insufficient to fully tackle the problem. A promising additional approach is based on subsequent EC measurements below and above the canopy. Specifically, examining the correlation of the standard deviation of vertical wind (obtained via sonic anemometers) below and above the canopy provides insight into the coupling state, as this correlation remains linear during fully coupled periods.

To date, there is no standardized approach to address decoupling yet, hence, it is commonly not explicitly considered in EC measurement networks and infrastructures such as FLUXNET or ICOS (Integrated Carbon Observation System). A specialized working group within ICOS strives for addressing this by initiating an extensive multi-site experiment. This multi-site experiment aims to i) evaluate the performance of different types of sonic anemometers below canopy for decoupling investigations, ii) explore the spatial heterogeneity of below canopy processes in relation to decoupling, iii) develop a robust procedure to integrate decoupling investigations in the standard processing of EC measurement networks.

The anticipated experimental design involves three testing sites chosen to represent a broad range of canopy characteristics. These sites consist of a deciduous broadleaf forest in flat terrain (Lanžhot, Czech Republic), a coniferous forest in mountainous terrain (Renon, Italy), and a tall evergreen needleleaf forest in moderately complex mountain-valley terrain (Wind River, USA). The working group, in collaboration with industry partners, plans to deploy approximately 30 sonic anemometers across these sites. While around 10 sonic anemometers of the same type will be installed at the Wind River site, the rest, comprising different types, will be set up at Lanžhot and Renon. Installations, arranged in an array below the canopy around the primary EC measurement tower, are scheduled to commence in spring 2024, with the goal of year-long data collection to cover all seasons.

This presentation will set the proposed experiment on a solid theoretical background, introduce the measurement design and discuss the experiment aims.

How to cite: Jocher, G., Kowalska, N., Liu, H., Wharton, S., Montagnani, L., and Papale, D.: Addressing forest canopy decoupling in eddy covariance flux measurement networks, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-7413, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-7413, 2024.

14:25–14:35
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EGU24-16121
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Tommaso Julitta, Andreas Burkart, Sam Bower, and Stefan Metzger

The continuous observation of ecosystems fluxes between the biosphere and atmosphere provides a much-needed foundation for effective real-world management of our geo-ecological life support systems. Over a thousand flux measurement sites globally use sophisticated eddy-covariance (EC) instruments and are organized in international monitoring networks, e.g. FLUXNET, NEON, ICOS. The integration of automated spectrometers measuring irradiance, reflectance and sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) adds valuable optical proxies for photosynthesis and carbon fixation at top-of-canopy level:  field spectroscopy provides  a powerful tool for understanding measurements of plant carbon uptake, thus providing a link between fluxes and satellite remote sensing and enabling local information to be scaled up to the globe. In the last years many efforts have been made for merging these two types of measurements. Nevertheless, when combining these two sources of information one major limitation is to match the different areas seen by the EC flux measurements and field spectroscopy. Typically the proximal sensing instruments have a fixed field of view (FOV) which limits the measured area to a portion of the underlying canopy. The FOV depends on the set up defined and can vary between a few degrees and 180 degrees, and, alongside the mounting height, determines the size of the monitored area. On the contrary, classical EC flux measurements provide data that typically refer to a larger and variable FOV, also referred to as footprint. The footprint of EC data varies spatially according to meteorological conditions, so – unless a site is perfectly homogenous – the comparison between proximal sensing and EC is always flawed by the footprint mismatch. Additionally, the results of a classical EC time series are difficult to attribute to individual sources and sinks within an upwind source area due to spatial aggregation. Recently the FluxMapper EC approach has been shown to transcribe high-frequency temporal information onto half-hourly Flux Maps around the tower which resolve fluxes spatially through signal disaggregation. Analogous to the proximal sensing techniques, the spatial resolution of the Flux Map depends on the sensor distance from the canopy. In this contribution, for the first time, we provide preliminary results of combining field spectroscopy techniques and Flux Mapper EC, and evaluate spatial heterogeneity effects on the interpretability relative to classical EC. Broader impacts include cost-effective measurement, reporting, and verification of nature-based and technological climate solutions in support of the Glasgow Climate Pact and the Dubai Climate Summit net-zero commitments.

How to cite: Julitta, T., Burkart, A., Bower, S., and Metzger, S.: Accounting for spatial variability when combining fluxes and proximal sensing techniques., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16121, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16121, 2024.

14:35–14:45
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EGU24-2039
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Henry W. Loescher, Michael SanClements, Jaana Bäck, Tommy Borman, Gregor Feig, Mark Grant, Werner L. Kutsch, Christine Laney, Paula Mabee, Michael Mirtl, Beryl Morris, Timothy Ohlert, Benjamin Ruddell, Alex Siggers, Melinda Smith, Pamela Sullivan, Xiubo Yu, and Steffen Zacharias

Despite the influence of drought on ecosystem functions and human well-being, there are significant uncertainties in our understanding of the impacts of drought for ecosystems and humanity. Over the past decade, large Environmental Research Infrastructures (ERIs) have been implemented around the world to advance our understanding in the responses of the biosphere to environmental change. These emergent ERIs now provide a unique opportunity to advance our understanding of ecological processes, such as drought, across continents, decades, and disciplinary boundaries. Against this backdrop, 6 ERIs (SAEON/South Africa, TERN/Australia, CERN/China, NEON/USA, ICOS/Europe, eLTER/Europe) have established an international network-to-network collaboration – the Global Ecosystem Research Infrastructure (GERI). To date, GERI activities have focused on garnering support, establishing baseline pathways for communications across continents and cultures and an initial mapping of each ERI’s data availability to facilitate future research. 

With recent funding from a U.S. National Science Foundation AccelNet award, GERI is poised to begin harmonizing key drought-related data. Working with stakeholder partners in the The Drought-Net Research Coordination Network’s and International Drought Experiment, we have identified key baseline data products for harmonization capable of driving new discoveries across continents. These data include soil moisture, precipitation, soil texture, and aboveground biomass, water balance, etc. As we advance this project, these harmonized data will be open, findable, searchable, and accessible, and made available to the broader community for research and discovery and stakeholder networks including the International Drought- Network to test and model. Data contributions from these new and emerging networks will be encouraged and streamlined through accessible metadata and standards. Lessons learned from the intersection of global drought data will be applied to the expanding set of environmental data collected by research networks around the world.

How to cite: Loescher, H. W., SanClements, M., Bäck, J., Borman, T., Feig, G., Grant, M., Kutsch, W. L., Laney, C., Mabee, P., Mirtl, M., Morris, B., Ohlert, T., Ruddell, B., Siggers, A., Smith, M., Sullivan, P., Yu, X., and Zacharias, S.: Harmonizing Data Across Continents and Networks to Address Ecological Drought, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2039, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2039, 2024.

Presentations of Networks
14:45–14:55
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EGU24-1654
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ECS
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
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Thomas Ohnemus, Thomas Dirnböck, Veronika Gaube, Hannes Mollenhauer, Jaana Bäck, Michael Mirtl, and Steffen Zacharias

The distributed Integrated European Long-Term Ecosystem, critical zone and socio-ecological Research Infrastructure – eLTER RI – comprises ecosystem research sites and socio-ecological research platforms. The in-situ facilities are designed to measure standardized observation variables for each of the five ecosystem spheres – sociosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere, geosphere, biosphere. Optimisation of the spatial distribution of in-situ facilities within a research infrastructure is often based on analyses of transferability or representativity revealing under-, well or overrepresented conditions and locations. However, these current conditions shift dramatically due to Global Change, posing fundamental research challenges. For eLTER RI, land use change (LUC) and climate change manifesting as climatic pressures on ecosystems were identified as important emerging research challenges.

Therefore, we investigated both the current coverage of environmental and socio-ecological gradients by the eLTER RI as well as its fitness for research challenges. To investigate the current state, we (i) conducted a survey to describe the emerging eLTER RI and (ii) identified the most critical gaps in its coverage of six Reference Parameters. To investigate the suitability of the eLTER RI to address the two key research challenges, we iii) derived metrics that reflect said research challenges, iv) estimated eLTER RI’s fitness for these future research challenges, and v) compared the eLTER RI's coverage of current environmental and socio-ecological gradients with its fitness for future research challenges. Finally, we vi) derived recommendations for the further development of the eLTER RI.

In its current state, three distinct geospatial gaps were identified: the Iberian Gap, the Eastern Gap, and the Nordic Gap. These gaps resulted mainly from the underrepresentation of agricultural lands, regions with low economic density, mesic and dry regions as well as the Mediterranean, Continental and Boreal biogeoregions. The patterns of underrepresentation appeared to be driven by access to funding resources. Several sites that responded to the survey but do currently not fulfil the infrastructural requirements of the eLTER RI bear potential to contribute to gap closure. Additionally, incorporating research facilities from other research infrastructures or monitoring networks into the eLTER RI could cost-efficiently counteract gaps. Regarding the fitness for research challenges, the derived metrics depicted the relevant research challenges well and spatial patterns of the emerging research challenges were consistent between scenarios. The eLTER RI covers all facets of emerging research challenges, but is tremendously spatially biased. Climatic hotspots regarding biotemperature and the seasonality of water availability will be overemphasised by the eLTER RI, while precipitation and LUC hotspots are underrepresented. Gaps that were assumed to be stable for a variety of potential futures manifested in the Southern Iberian Peninsula, Poland, Finland, Sweden and Norway.

Closing gaps regarding the current coverage of environmental and socio-ecological gradients is of highest priority for the spatial network development. Primarily, regions where overlap to gaps in the Fitness for Research Challenges exists should be targeted. Consequently, this work suggests that the development of the eLTER RI and other research infrastructure should be adapted based on current and anticipated future conditions, since the spatial design can and should be optimised for both simultaneously.

How to cite: Ohnemus, T., Dirnböck, T., Gaube, V., Mollenhauer, H., Bäck, J., Mirtl, M., and Zacharias, S.: The eLTER Research Infrastructure: Current Network Design and Fitness for Research Challenges, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1654, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1654, 2024.

14:55–15:05
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EGU24-18742
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On-site presentation
Karlina Ozolina, Theresia Bilola, Matthew Saunders, Emmanuel Salmon, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tommy Bornman, Jörg Klausen, Gregor Feig, Lutz Merbold, and Werner Kutsch

Climate change is having a global impact through the increased frequency, magnitude and duration of droughts, fires, floods and other extreme climatic events. The societal solutions to this crisis depend on the ability of policy makers, private enterprise, and society at large to access and utilise scientific research into climatic variables and carbon/greenhouse gas dynamics across scientific domains. This will also require connecting, exchange and collaboration between these stakeholders. One of the most suitable approaches that supports the needs of all parties is the development of standardised observations in sustainable research infrastructures (RIs), that can facilitate both basic and applied scientific analyses and produce the data products needed.

The Horizon Europe funded KADI project (Knowledge and climate services from an African observation and Data research Infrastructure) aims to provide the conceptual framework for the future implementation of a pan-African RI that delivers the science-based services to fully address the requirements of the Paris agreement and the UN SDGs. The project aims to  have direct societal benefit through facilitating inter-disciplinary cooperation between African and European Partners and conceptualising the requirements for climate change observations in Africa.

The project  works towards the development of a comprehensive design for a pan-African climate observation system using the climate services identified and required by key stakeholders as a guiding design principle, and further building on the knowledge compiled and gaps identified through the SEACRIFOG collaborative inventory tool, the OSCAR/Surface, OSCAR/Space and OSCAR/Requirements tools. The project  connects scientists, data and knowledge users at local, national and global levels, to develop a community of practice in climate services. These networking and knowledge exchange activities allow for the development of an RI design study and the identification of the key players who can implement the conceptual design as sustainable funding for long-term observations becomes available.

The main activities in the project  utilise a co-design approach to identify the climate services required by key stakeholders and  explore these through a series of climate service pilot projects that  focus on the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, coastal areas, urban developments and national GHG budgets. The outputs from this will inform the strategic design of the long-term observational and data infrastructures required. A knowledge exchange platform will facilitate pan-African and European innovation, linking the science-based concept design and the policy cooperation required to develop a functional and collaborative RI, and provide long-term sustainable support for the integration of African climate-services into global observation systems.

How to cite: Ozolina, K., Bilola, T., Saunders, M., Salmon, E., Skjelvan, I., Bornman, T., Klausen, J., Feig, G., Merbold, L., and Kutsch, W.: Designing a pan-African climate observation system to deliver societal benefit through climate action: The KADI project, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18742, 2024.

Applications for science and society
15:05–15:15
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EGU24-13492
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On-site presentation
David Moore, Wen Zhang, Angie Abarzua, and Charles Devine

Climate, potential biota, topography, geological parent material, and time. The state factor-interactive-controls hypothesis is a pervasive concept in ecosystem ecology that could explain long term controls of eddy covariance estimates of gross primary productivity. The hypothesis is adopted by ecologists whenever a gradient analysis is used (a chrono-sequence or a climate gradient). In this framework the state factors of climate, potential biota, topography, geological parent material, and time control ecosystem processes but are not themselves influenced by ecosystem processes at local scales. Interactive controls like realized plant functional types, soil resources, microclimate and disturbance frequency influence and are influenced by ecosystem processes. Flux networks represent whole ecosystem process measurements and while much has been learned from analyzing short term controls, longer term controls have been investigated less often. The last two decades have seen the growth of the Ameriflux network in North America; similar measurements of ecosystem carbon, water and energy exchange made across a wide range of ecosystem types. We tested whether gross primary productivity, estimated using the eddy covariance method across more than 40 ecosystems in North America conformed to the State-Factor-Interactive-Controls hypothesis. To estimate state factors we combined satellite observations, digital elevation models, geological and soil maps and climate re-analysis. By limiting our analysis to sites with more than 10 years of data we were able to remove the effect of short-term direct controls (light, temperature, moisture etc) on gross primary productivity. We found significant interactive effects of climate and geological substrate and a strong direct effect of climate on average gross primary productivity. We also found a strong effect of biota on the variation that was not explained by state factors. Comparing these patterns to predictions from an Earth System Model we found contrasting results. These findings provide support for the state factors-interactive-controls hypothesis and suggest new opportunities for ecological synthesis using networks of ecological data.

How to cite: Moore, D., Zhang, W., Abarzua, A., and Devine, C.: Using flux networks to discover long term controls of ecosystem productivity, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13492, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13492, 2024.

15:15–15:25
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EGU24-1551
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On-site presentation
Elise Pendall, Juergen Knauer, Nick Wright-Osment, Catriona Macdonald, Craig Barton, Manju Chandregowda, Sally Power, and Belinda Medlyn

Livestock grazing contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, soil degradation and erosion, and loss of biodiversity. Regenerative pasture management includes improvements such as sowing high-diversity seed mixtures with legumes and other deep-rooted forbs in addition to C3 and C4 grasses, alternating intensive grazing with rest periods, bio-based fertilizers, etc. These improvements may alleviate degradation and restore multiple ecosystem services, including soil carbon sequestration and heat wave mitigation. Predictive understanding of management impacts requires process-based models that accurately simulate herbaceous growth and allocation in response to grazing and irrigation events. Moreover, accurate and timely model forecasts depend on well-validated data collected at appropriate temporal and spatial scales, delivered with low latency.

We used four years of eddy covariance data in combination with vegetation indices and a process-based model to improve estimates of Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) and energy balance in response to livestock and wildlife grazing in an area with fluctuating soil moisture availability. The enhanced vegetation index (EVI) for the degraded pasture, grazed mainly by native wildlife (kangaroos), demonstrated wide seasonal variations of 0.2 to 0.6, whereas EVI was maintained more consistently close to 0.5 for an improved pasture, grazed intermittently by cattle or sheep. Across three wet years, NEP for the improved pasture averaged 12% higher compared to the degraded one (153 vs. 137 g C m-2 y-1), associated with average 20% greater gross primary production (GPP; 1822 vs. 1521 g C m-2 y-1). However, NEP on the improved pasture was lower than on the degraded pasture in two of those three years, possibly due to grazing-related differences in biomass removal. Sensible heat fluxes were higher from the degraded pasture, especially during hot/dry periods. Ongoing analyses are evaluating soil C storage for benchmarking flux data. Model predictions are also being improved by validating representation of productivity by C3 and C4 species and carbon allocation to roots and crowns. This work contributes to enhancing environmental sustainability in managed grasslands with near-real-time forecasting ability for grazing and irrigation management.

How to cite: Pendall, E., Knauer, J., Wright-Osment, N., Macdonald, C., Barton, C., Chandregowda, M., Power, S., and Medlyn, B.: Progress in forecasting carbon, water and energy fluxes in improved and degraded pastures: data-model comparison near Sydney Australia , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1551, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1551, 2024.

15:25–15:35
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EGU24-14226
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solicited
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Kosana Suvocarev, Housen Chu, Lily Klinek, Matthew Miksch, Holly Oldroyd, Troy Magney, Stephen Chan, Sebastien Biraud, and Kyaw Tha Paw U

Coastal redwood forests are among California’s most productive and largest carbon-storing natural ecosystems. However, there is a gap in knowledge on their water and carbon fluxes due to the lack of direct flux measurements. We received funding and advisory support from the State of California in order to address the water and carbon fluxes from redwood forest under declining fog conditions, different forest floor management, increasing droughts and other climate change threats during the period when the State is preparing for carbon neutrality goals (to be accomplished by 2045). Two tall eddy covariance towers will be installed in summer of 2024 to continuously monitor forest health at early and mid-seral growth stages (91 % of the coastal redwood forest ). Due to the complexity of terrain, we will equip the towers with the additional profile measurements throughout the canopy and downslope from the main towers to address the advection and  flux drainage. Occasional ancillary forest inventory surveys will be conducted within the flux footprint for improved data interpretation.  The study results will be uploaded to AmeriFlux and FLUXNET data repositories, and regularly communicated to the State agencies, advisory board and local communities through meetings and cooperative extension events. We invite suggestions for collaboration for continuing this project beyond the current timeline for long-term study and broader impact.  

How to cite: Suvocarev, K., Chu, H., Klinek, L., Miksch, M., Oldroyd, H., Magney, T., Chan, S., Biraud, S., and Paw U, K. T.: An Integrated Observatory for Redwood Forest Health and California Carbon Neutrality , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14226, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14226, 2024.

15:35–15:45
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EGU24-12677
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Marta Galvagno, Gianluca Filippa, Luca Tuzzi, Edoardo Cremonese, Alessio Collalti, Roberto Colombo, Daniela Dalmonech, Giacomo Grassi, Mirco Migliavacca, Enrico Tomelleri, and Jacob Nelson

According to the IPCC and the Paris Agreement, the imperative to limit global warming to 1.5°C, or well below 2°C, compared to the pre-industrial era, necessitates achieving a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks (net-zero anthropogenic CO2 emissions) by the second half of this century. In this context, a prerequisite for credible climate action is an accurate estimation of both these large fluxes. Recent initiatives have focused on improving the quantification of the land sector mitigation potential and reducing the discrepancies between models and observations at a global level. However, the implementation of climate mitigation policies often takes place at the local level, where entities like local authorities (e.g., cities and regions) often wield more impactful roles in the transition to a sustainable economy than higher-level bodies such as Nations. Conversely, the assessment of CO2 removals from forests and other land uses is traditionally lacking at the local compared to the national level. 

Following a support request from the local administration for the definition of a long-term climate mitigation plan, we tested a data-driven method relying on eddy covariance (EC) data to quantify the carbon sink of the Aosta Valley Region in northwestern Italy for the period 2010-2022. Our model integrates various approaches, incorporating eddy covariance measurements of CO2 fluxes, MODIS NDVI data, daily gridded meteorological variables, and a 250m spatial resolution land cover map to calculate the net carbon uptake of the regional ecosystems. A Random Forest model was used to up-scale the eddy covariance data to the regional level, by testing different sets of drivers (air temperature, VPD, Snow (presence/absence), NDVI, solar radiation,...). Furthermore, global models developed in the framework of the FLUXCOM initiative were fine-tuned with the local predictors and applied at a regional scale. Finally, we compared our findings with independent data derived from the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory.

Preliminary results revealed that forests and other ecosystems in the region currently offset on average nearly 70% of anthropogenic emissions in the region, also depending on the interannual variation of air temperature and the occurrence of extreme events. We will delve into the discrepancies among various methods, exploring their respective advantages, limitations, and spatiotemporal variability. This evaluation of the regional carbon budget and associated uncertainties represents an important step toward the benefit of using flux observations for implementing climate-smart land management—a pivotal component in meeting carbon neutrality targets.

How to cite: Galvagno, M., Filippa, G., Tuzzi, L., Cremonese, E., Collalti, A., Colombo, R., Dalmonech, D., Grassi, G., Migliavacca, M., Tomelleri, E., and Nelson, J.: Empowering local Climate Change mitigation policies through Eddy Covariance flux measurements, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12677, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12677, 2024.

Posters on site: Wed, 17 Apr, 16:15–18:00 | Hall X1

Display time: Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–Wed, 17 Apr, 18:00
Chairpersons: George Burba, Andreas Ibrom
X1.52
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EGU24-14485
Gilberto Pastorello, Jason Beringer, David Durden, Carlo Trotta, You-Wei Cheah, Peter Isaac, Cove Sturtevant, and Dario Papale

Widely used in studies ranging from ecophysiology dynamics to global estimates using models and remote sensing data, FLUXNET datasets have become key to scientific research and applications. More frequently updated and high-quality FLUXNET data collections are ever more pressing, serving opportunities with new technologies and new real-world applications including nature-based and technological climate solutions, carbon credit verification, support to agriculture decision systems, and ecological forecasting. The three major FLUXNET releases (FLUXNET2015, LaThuile in 2007, and Marconi 2000) have been widely used by the scientific community, academia and industry. Nonetheless, release cycles of 7-10 years have become a major limiting factor, given the demand for continuously updated collections for anchoring remote sensing (calibration and validation), models (from hindcasts to forecasting), and real-world applications requiring near-real-time data. Regional flux networks have sought to expand the datasets by increasing the number of sites, variables and metadata shared, by improving data quality, and by moving toward open data principles via the recent adoption of the CC-BY data license. New network-level data products are being released, either regularly (e.g., AmeriFlux, ICOS, NEON, TERN datasets), or in response to specific demands (e.g. Drought2018 and WarmWinter2020 in ICOS). These data are processed using the shared and jointly maintained ONEFlux pipeline, making data products fully compatible and interoperable. However, mechanisms for global access to regional network data at a global scale are still challenging for users. The continuous development of the FAIRness and related data discovery tools further supports new strategies to create, maintain, and continuously update FLUXNET datasets. At the same time, inequity in data use, credit, recognition, and contribution is still a significant challenge that must be highlighted and solved. Here, we present a roadmap for how future FLUXNET synthesis datasets can be constructed and shared. We demonstrate a data discovery and access tool, look into benefits for data providers and users, and highlight data usage and availability. Open discussion of these challenges and solutions is encouraged.

https://shuttle-demo.fluxnet.org/

How to cite: Pastorello, G., Beringer, J., Durden, D., Trotta, C., Cheah, Y.-W., Isaac, P., Sturtevant, C., and Papale, D.: Global FLUXNET Datasets: Past Usage, Opportunities, and New Data, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14485, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14485, 2024.

X1.53
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EGU24-16993
Jörg Klausen, Sarina Danioth, Patricia Nying’uro, Joyce Kimutai, Kennedy Thiong’o, Martin Steinbacher, Lutz Merbold, Niina Käyhkö, Matthew Saunders, Theresia Bilola, Emmanuel Salmon, and Werner L. Kutsch

Climate change is having an accelerating global impact through the increased frequency, magnitude and duration of droughts, fires, floods and other extreme climatic events. The most vulnerable populations bear the greatest brunt of these impacts. The societal solutions to this crisis depend also on how scientific research can address the air quality-climate-health nexus. Observations are needed as a foundation for air quality and climate services to address UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The atmospheric observing capabilities in most countries in Low- and Middle Income Countries (LMIC) remain often sketchy and heterogeneous, are established based on opportunities, and often not designed for integration into the operational infrastructures of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. As a result, operation often lacks sustainability and compatibility, and data are not easily and widely available. This is true for meteorological and climatological observations, but is even more pronounced for the complex instrumentation required to monitor greenhouse gases and short-lived climate pollutants. The development of standardised observations in sustainable research infrastructures (RIs) can overcome some of these issues.

The Horizon Europe funded KADI project (Knowledge and climate services from an African observation and Data research Infrastructure) aims to provide the conceptual framework for the future implementation of an All-African RI that delivers the science-based services to fully address the requirements of the Paris agreement and the SDGs.

The KADI project works towards the development of a comprehensive design for a pan-African climate observation system and research infrastructure using the climate services identified and required by key stakeholders as a guiding design principle. Knowledge is compiled and gaps identified through the SEACRIFOG collaborative inventory tool, the OSCAR/Surface, OSCAR/Space and OSCAR/Requirements tools, as well as a comprehensive survey and other stakeholder engagement. A pilot project focused on Kenya collects and integrates information on user requirements, existing and past observing capabilities, and services. Based on extensive engagement with stakeholders who use or provide weather, climate and atmospheric composition services, lessons-learnt and best practices for future endeavours will be distilled. The outputs from this will further inform the strategic design of the long-term observational and data infrastructures required.

The results so far suggest that services need to cover diverse requirements of a wide range of stakeholders. Sustainable standardized observations are a critical foundation. Sustainability requires long-term commitment of the operating institution at various organizational levels. Information derived from observations is often required with short lead times. Twinning programs and personnel exchange between new and established stations or laboratories can be effective to advance and transition new monitoring capabilities into full operation. 

The presentation will introduce the approaches and first results.

How to cite: Klausen, J., Danioth, S., Nying’uro, P., Kimutai, J., Thiong’o, K., Steinbacher, M., Merbold, L., Käyhkö, N., Saunders, M., Bilola, T., Salmon, E., and Kutsch, W. L.: Taking stock of observing capabilities for designing a pan-African atmospheric and climate research infrastructure (KADI): Lessons learnt from Kenya and best practices., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-16993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16993, 2024.

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EGU24-13042
Gabriel de Oliveira, Skye Hellenkamp, and John Lehrter

The Mobile-Tensaw Delta comprises one of the United States most important urban-influenced coastal systems. Known as the “North America’s Amazon”, the Mobile-Tensaw Delta has experienced significant anthropogenic disturbance such as from logging, land- cover change, and hydrologic modification. This region is also extremely susceptible to the consequences of climate change. On the land, these consequences include temporal trends and variability in temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and primary productivity. Whereas from the water, stressors include sea level rise, increasing salinity, changing period and frequency of wetland inundation, and changing sedimentation regimes. In combination, trends and variability in the environment are expected to increase plant water stress and alter water and carbon cycling processes in the Mobile-Tensaw Delta. Eddy covariance is of great use to several regulatory and commercial applications, related to environmental and water management, industrial monitoring, agricultural production, and other areas where directly measured energy, water vapor or gas exchanges, emissions and budgets are of interest. Major flux measurement networks exist to provide global synthesis, which allows interpretation of one particular site in the context of world-wide observations. Automated and semi-automated technical tools are now also available to expand the use of automated flux stations, individually and as a part of cross shared flux networks, into modelling and remote sensing with global coverage and local resolution. In the JAGFLUX network, we are designing and implementing a structure of eddy covariance towers throughout the Mobile-Tensaw Delta in order to understand the responses of different terrestrial ecosystems on releasing/absorbing water to and from the atmosphere and emitting/absorbing carbon to and from the atmosphere. The idea is to create a network of eddy covariance flux towers over hardwood evergreen forests, wetlands, marshes and also agricultural areas in the surroundings. These towers, together with remote sensing (satellite) data and modeling we will be able to investigate, e.g., how different ecosystems in the Delta are behaving, both spatially and temporally, in terms of acting a sink or source of carbon. Moreover, the measurements will help to improve fundamental, process-level understanding of the vegetation structure across the Mobile-Tensaw Delta, serving as a basis for future studies addressing the future link between forest degradation, water-use efficiency, and climate change in the region.

How to cite: de Oliveira, G., Hellenkamp, S., and Lehrter, J.: Development of JAGFLUX: An eddy covariance flux tower network in the Mobile-Tensaw Delta, the second largest delta in the United States, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13042, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13042, 2024.

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EGU24-10322
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ECS
Laura van der Poel, Wietse Franssen, Laurent Bataille, Ronald Hutjes, and Bart Kruijt

Worldwide, peatlands have been transformed from carbon sinks to carbon sources due to years of intensive agriculture and livestock farming, requiring low water tables. In the Netherlands, emissions from drained organic soils mount up to around 3% of all national greenhouse gas emissions, and account for 4.6 to 7 Mt CO2 annually. As part of the 2019 national climate agreement, the Dutch government set a specific mitigation target for these emissions of 1 Mt per year by 2030. In light of this target, the Netherlands Research Progamme on Greenhouse gas dynamics in Peatlands and organic soils (Dutch: NOBV) investigates the efficiency of proposed mitigation measures, and aims to contribute valuable scientific findings to the politically and socially sensitive debate around this issue. The focus of our study aligns with the NOBV's objective to enhance the understanding and quantification of drivers of regional emissions.

To research regional fluxes, NOBV incorporates a new approach: Eddy Covariance (EC) measurements are taken from a low-flying ultra-light aircraft. Fluxes of CO­2, momentum, sensible and latent heat are measured, as well as meteorological variables. Weather permitting, the airborne surveys are done twice a week since 2020, over the three main fen meadow areas in the Netherlands. The crosswind, parallel flight tracks ensure that the footprints overlap, thus cover the full area. Additionally to the airborne data collection, a large EC tower network has been established with both stationary and mobile systems, encompassing 25 measurement sites.

In this study, we combine airborne and tower flux data, to make use of their different strengths: spatial heterogeneity and temporal continuity, respectively. We use footprint analysis to extract the corresponding spatial information from maps, remote sensing, and a daily soil-water information product. Using this data, we train a boosted regression tree (BRT) machine learning algorithm. Feature selection and hyperparameter tuning are applied as model optimization techniques, and subsequently Shapley values and various simulations are used to interpret the model’s outputs.

Related to the public debate and other studies on emissions from organic soils, we specifically investigate the influence of water table dynamics. A first analysis shows that during nighttime and at high incoming photosynthetically active radiation, every 10 centimeters lowering of efficient water table depth leads to 3.7 tonnes CO2 ha-1 yr-1, which corresponds to current estimates. We will present these, and further results, showing what and how determines the CO2 fluxes from drained fen meadows in the Netherlands.

How to cite: van der Poel, L., Franssen, W., Bataille, L., Hutjes, R., and Kruijt, B.: Analysing airborne CO2 flux measurements in relation to spatiotemporal characteristics of drained fen meadows in the Netherlands with machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10322, 2024.

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EGU24-1265
George Burba, Stefan Metzger, and CarbonDew Community

The Carbon Dew Community of Practice is an international non-profit representing carbon and climate experts from over 160 organizations. Our vision is to anchor fair and equitable climate solutions in direct atmospheric measurements of GHG transfers to or from the atmosphere. Our mission is to facilitate technology transfer by providing a medium for public and private entities to work together towards common goals. We strive to translate surface-atmosphere science into real-world impacts and innovate industry practices with the best available science. To achieve this, we support the integration and coordination of existing capabilities and resources for enhancing the measurement and quantification of GHG emissions and removals.

Initial Endeavors:

  • Formation of a well-rounded community representing all pertinent stakeholders and experts in climate solutions and GHG emissions trading.
  • Launching collective contributions to workshops and conferences aimed at educating on the significance of direct GHG measurements for equitable climate solutions and emissions trading.
  • Collaborative creation of responses to government policy and funding proposals, co-authoring publications, and piloting projects to test the efficacy of specific methodologies.
  • Future phases will involve efforts towards comprehensive recommendations or protocols, ensuring a balance across environmental, economic, financial, and regulatory aspects to achieve practical and fair climate solutions globally.

Key Stakeholders:

  • Natural and managed ecosystems contributing to global-scale carbon sequestration and storage services.
  • Growers, ranging from small-scale farmers to large farm corporations, with substantial potential for reducing carbon emissions.
  • Industries across food, oil, and gas sectors, holding significant potential for carbon emission reduction.
  • Municipalities and local governments empowered to curtail carbon emissions through regulations and community-focused incentives.
  • For-profit entities like financial consultants, carbon traders, and tech innovators capable of incentivizing emission reduction while generating profits.
  • National governments and global non-profits serving as regulators and facilitators to drive societal improvements and incentivize emission reduction.

This presentation offers a progress report on the latest available tools and other developments in practical technology transfer of flux tools from academia to wider society, the latest adoption examples from FAO to the oil and gas sector, and a progress report on the latest activities by the CarbonDew Community.

How to cite: Burba, G., Metzger, S., and Community, C.: Pioneering Direct Flux Measurements for Immediate Societal Benefits: Latest Tools, Developments, and Community of Practice, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1265, 2024.

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EGU24-12579
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ECS
Arianna Lucarini, Mauro Lo Cascio, Serena Marras, Donatella Spano, and Costantino Sirca

The Eddy Covariance (EC) method allows for the monitoring of carbon, water, and energy fluxes between Earth’s surface and atmosphere. Due to it’s varying interdependent data streams and abundance of data as a whole, EC is naturally suited to Artificial Intelligence (AI) approaches. The integration of AI and EC will likely play a crucial role in the climate change mitigation and adaptation goals defined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the Agenda 2030.

To aid this, we present a scoping review in which the novelty of various AI techniques in environmental science from the past two decades has been collected. Overall, we find a clear positive trend in the quantity of research in this area, particularly in the last five years. We also find a lack of uniformity in available techniques, due to the diverse technologies and variables employed across environmental conditions and ecosystems.

We suggest that future progress in this field requires an international, collaborative effort involing computer scientists and ecologists. Modern DL techniques such as Transformers and generative AI must be investigated to find how they may benefit our field. A forward-looking strategy must be formed for the optimal utilization of AI combined with EC to define the future actions in flux monitoring in the face of climate change.

 

Keywords: eddy covariance, artificial intelligence, flux monitoring, machine learning, deep learning, climate change.

How to cite: Lucarini, A., Lo Cascio, M., Marras, S., Spano, D., and Sirca, C.: Eddy Covariance and Artificial Intelligence: a review, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12579, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12579, 2024.

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EGU24-13899
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Highlight
Robert Granat, Andrey Dara, Oleg Demidov, and Geza Toth

We present an approach to using a machine learning based regression model to estimate CO2 fluxes at 30 meter spatial resolution. The method uses eddy covariance measurements of CO2 obtained from in situ stations (FLUXNET) as primary reference data.  Multispectral satellite observations collected by Landsat are combined with meteorological information to form feature vectors that are used as predictor variables. The XGBoost machine learning algorithm is used to train the regression models on a per-land cover basis. The resulting models can be used to estimate CO2 fluxes wherever Landsat satellite imagery is available.  Moreover, the approach provides a framework that is extensible to other satellite imagery types and will improve in accuracy as more primary reference data becomes available.  We present results of the method as applied to examples in the agricultural sector.

How to cite: Granat, R., Dara, A., Demidov, O., and Toth, G.: Estimating CO2 Flux at 30 Meter Resolution Using Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13899, 2024.

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EGU24-19586
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ECS
Basile Goussard, Gaétan Pique, and Sarah Dussot

Quantifying CO2 fluxes over terrestrial land is crucial to better understand the global carbon cycle and the contribution of ecosystems to climate change. In addition, ecosystems such as croplands and forests have the potential to sequester carbon in the soil and vegetation. Robust tools to simulate CO2 fluxes with high accuracy are needed to identify best practices and management for carbon sequestration.
In this study, the Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) from different networks (ICOS, NEON) is used to develop machine learning (ML) approaches to simulate daily CO2 fluxes. These biome specific approaches use as input high spatial and temporal resolution optical remote sensing products combined with meteorological data. The biomes considered are cropland, deciduous forest, evergreen forest and grassland. Different ML models were tested and the ExtraTreesRegression model seems to be better suited for all biomes except grassland where an SVR model was more appropriate. The features identified as most important among the remote sensing products are NDVI and NDMI while among meteorological variables, global radiation, air temperature and fraction of diffuse radiation appears as more relevant.
The predicted results show good agreement with daily observations, with R2 of 0.82 over cropland. The performance of the model in simulating CO2 fluxes over forests is more contrasted with good accuracy over deciduous forests (R2 of 0.72) but low confidence over evergreen forests (R2 of 0.29). Finally the model was also applied to grassland, but the small size of the dataset combined with the high heterogeneity of soil and climatic conditions of grassland sites led to low correlation with observations (R2 of 0.44).
This work demonstrates the potential of a machine learning-based method to assess CO2 fluxes across different biomes, and should be further explored due to its ease of use and application.

How to cite: Goussard, B., Pique, G., and Dussot, S.: Estimation of CO2 fluxes across different biomes using machine learning approaches, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19586, 2024.

Posters virtual: Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–15:45 | vHall X1

Display time: Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–Wed, 17 Apr, 18:00
Chairpersons: Stefan Metzger, Dario Papale
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EGU24-59
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ECS
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Syam Chintala, Arun rao karimindla, and Phanindra kbvn

Water use efficiency (WUE) relates two important processes of the plant atmosphere continuum namely net carbon assimilation (via photosynthesis) and water utilization (via evapotranspiration). Our desire to trade-off WUE between accurate measurement at leaf level (WUEL) and effective implementation at plant level (WUEP) demands accurate scaling relations. Conventional mid-day, fully expanded, single-leaf measurements of WUEL are found to be poorly correlated with WUEP, thus questioning the applicability of scaling relations. This research is aimed at obtaining optimal time-window and leaf canopy position to characterize and upscale WUEL for effective field level implementation. Leaf gas exchange parameters were monitored in a rainfed Cotton field at five canopy positions for one crop cycle, and further correlated with WUEP considering individual measurements as well as their spatial averages. Optimal time-window showing highest correlation with WUEP has occurred during 15:00 to 16:00 hours irrespective of canopy leaf position and growth stage. Deviation with mid-day measurements of WUEL low during boll bursting stage (7.38 ± 4.69 %) and high during germination and seedling emergence stage (17.27 ± 5.37 %). These changes are largely attributed to stomatal regulation of water vapour via unregulated water stress conditions. Scaling relations between WUEL and WUEP are linear with correlation strengths ranging from 0.52 (west bottom) to 0.80 (plant top). At leaf level, WUE is controlled by variations in photosynthetic photon flux density (ρ = 0.80) and vapour pressure deficit (ρ = 0.78), whereas at plant level, WUE is controlled by relative humidity (ρ = 0.77) and net solar radiation (ρ = 0.85). Our findings can help in developing alternate water management strategies to improve WUE in rainfed Cotton fields of tropical humid climate.

How to cite: Chintala, S., karimindla, A. R., and kbvn, P.: Scaling relations between leaf and plant water use efficiencies in rainfed Cotton – Role of environmental and biophysical parameters, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-59, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-59, 2024.

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EGU24-19726
Kevin Forbes

In March of 2022, AP News and other news outlets reported that the Earth's poles were experiencing simultaneous heatwaves.  Portions of the Arctic were more than 30 degrees Celsius warmer than expected, while some locations in Antarctica were  40 degrees Celsius warmer than average.  While some suspect this freakish outcome results from human-induced climate change, others have scoffed at this suggestion.  With this attribution uncertainty in mind, this paper seeks to understand the drivers in hourly temperatures at the Ny-Ålesund station (NYA) in Svalbard (Latitude: 78.9227,  Longitude: 11.9273)  and the Neumayer Station (GVN) in Antarctica (Latitude: -70.6500, Longitude: -8.2500).

 Based on one-minute data from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN), the hourly temperature data for NYA and GVN from January 1, 1999, through December 31, 2019, were calculated.  Hourly averages of the following radiation variables were also calculated: Short-Wave Downward (SWD), Long-Wave Downward(LWD),  Short-Wave Upward (SWU), and  Long-Wave Upward (LWU).   The hourly net radiation flux at the Earth's surface was then calculated as SWD + LWD – SWU – LWU.  This variable is of interest because it is recognized as an important driver of the weather and climate system.  The analysis also uses the hourly CO2 concentration data for Svalbard reported by the  Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) from January 1, 2004 through December 2019.

The analysis proceeds by employing the Vector Autoregressive Regression (VAR) method.  The general approach considers K variables specified as linear functions of p of their lags and p lags of the other K - 1 variables.  Using this methodology, one can subsequently test for Granger Causality.  The methodology is based on whether the lagged values of some variable X are useful in predicting the current value of some variable Y. Because of its focus on the lagged values, the methodology does not contest the truism that the correlation between two contemporaneous variables does not imply causation.

The VAR/Granger methodology is first applied here to model the possible relationship between hourly CO2 concentrations and the hourly net radiation flux levels at  NYA.      In this case,  there is strong statistical evidence that hourly CO2 concentrations at NYA have Granger Causal implications for the hourly net radiation flux at NYA.  Consistent with this finding, the out-of-sample hourly net radiation flux predictions for NYA are more accurate than a persistence forecast when the lagged CO2 concentrations are included in the analysis.   

The following evidence is also presented: the hourly net radiation flux at NYA has Granger Causal implications for the hourly temperature at NYA, the hourly net radiation flux at NYA in the Polar region has  Granger Causal implications for the net radiation flux at the GVN station in Antarctica, and the hourly temperatures at NYA and GVN exhibit two-way Granger Causality.  In short, the analysis in the paper supports the view that the atmospheric and meteorological conditions at any location are highly interrelated with conditions elsewhere and that the pace of freakish weather conditions is likely to increase as CO2 concentrations continue to rise.

How to cite: Forbes, K.: CO2 Concentrations and the Freakish Heatwaves at the Poles: A Preliminary Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19726, 2024.