Human history is full of examples documenting that cultural innovations played a key role in reducing the impact of environmental stress on early populations. Over the past 1 million years this type of adaptation (e.g., clothing, shelter, hunting techniques, social behaviour) likely also increased human population size. Humans are cumulative cultural learners, who can integrate knowledge and culture from one generation to the next. The larger the number of interacting people, the faster the rate of innovation.  Here we introduce a stochastic consumer-resource modeling framework, that simulates the dynamics of cultural transmission, learning, and innovation, population size, and resource depletion in a changing environment. Culture is introduced as a booster to carrying capacity. A zero-dimensional version of the model simulates nonlinear phase-synchronization between culture, population and external climate forcings. We will also present the first results of the model in 2 dimensions with full global resolution and 3 interacting hominin species to assess which role differences in cultural innovation played in the extinction of Neanderthals and Denisovans.

How to cite: Timmermann, A., Wasay, A., Raia, P., and Ruan, J.: Climate, culture and population size, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4791, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4791, 2024.

Exploration of the paleobiology of extinct taxa through ancient DNA and proteomics has been largely limited to Plio-Pleistocene fossils due to molecular breakdown over time, a problem exacerbated in tropical settings. Here, we report small proteomes from the interior enamel of fossils deposited at paleontological sites dating between 29–1.5 Ma in the Turkana Basin, Kenya, which has produced the richest record of Cenozoic mammal evolution in eastern Africa. We recovered enamel protein fragments in all sampled fossils, including a ~ 29 Ma Arsinoitherium specimen belonging to an extinct mammalian order, Embrithopoda. Identified proteins include the classical structural enamel proteins amelogenin, enamelin, and ameloblastin, but also less abundant enamel proteins including collagens and proteases. Protein fragment counts decline in progressively older fossils, but we observe significant variability in Early Miocene preservation across sites, with ~17 Ma deinothere and elephantimorph proboscidean fossils from Buluk preserving substantially more proteins than rhinocerotid and anthracotheriid fossils from ~18 Ma Locherangan and hippopotamids from younger localities at Napudet (< 11 Ma). Most specimens yield known clade-specific diagenetiforms that support morphology-based taxonomic identifications. Matches to clade-specific proteins suggest the future potential of paleoproteomics to contribute to the systematic placement of extinct taxa, but should be approached with caution due to sometimes sparse fragment identification and the possibility of sequence diagenesis. We identify likely modifications that support the ancient age of these proteins, and the oldest examples of advanced glycation end-products and carbamylation yet known. The discovery of protein sequences within dense enamel tissues in one of the persistently warmest regions on Earth promises the discovery of far older proteomes that will aid in the study of the biology and evolutionary relationships of extinct taxa.

How to cite: Green, D., Uno, K., Miller, E., Feibel, C., Aoron, E., Beck, C., Grossman, A., Kirera, F., Kirinya, M., Leakey, L., Liutkus-Pierce, C., Manthi, F., Ndiema, E., Nyete, C., Rowan, J., Russo, G., Sanders, W., Smiley, T., Princehouse, P., and Vitek, N. and the Turkana Miocene Project: 29 million years of diverse mammalian enamel proteomes from Turkana in the East African Rift System, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21192, 2024.

Climate variations during the last glacial period had major impacts on plant and animal populations including humans. Yet, relationships between human population levels and climate through time and across space remain elusive. Here, we used the archaeological radiocarbon dates spanning 50 to 10 ka BP in China to indicate fluctuations in human population sizes, and investigated their correlations with climate variables from paleoclimate proxies and climate model outputs using a Bayesian radiocarbon‐dated event count (REC) statistical model. We find that temperature has a significant positive effect on population in China during 50 – 10 ka, while the sensitivity of population size to temperature exhibits a declining trend over time, suggesting a potential gradual adaptation to cold climates. We further used a global ecosystem model that explicitly simulates human population dynamics, the ORCHIDEE-FOEGE model, to reconstruct human densities during the LGM, and investigated the roles of climate and atmospheric CO2 levels in shaping the distribution of human populations in China.

How to cite: Zhu, D., Lin, Z., and Zhou, J.: Spatiotemporal relationships between human population and climate during the last glacial period in China, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10236, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10236, 2024.

We identify past human habitat preferences over time to investigate the role of vegetation and ecosystem diversity on hominin adaptation and migration. Using a transient 3-million-year earth system-biome model simulation and an extensive hominin fossil and archaeological database we distinguish in what habitat previous Hominin lived. Our analysis shows that early African hominins predominantly lived in open environments such as grassland and dry shrubland. Hominins adapted to a broader range of biomes by migrating into Eurasia. By linking the location and age of hominin sites with corresponding simulated regional biomes, we also find a preference for spatially diverse environments. Suggesting our ancestors actively sought out mosaic landscapes.

How to cite: Zeller, E., Timmermann, A., Yun, K.-S., Raia, P., Stein, K., and Ruan, J.: Human adaptation to diverse biomes over the past 3 million years, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13260, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13260, 2024.

There is a chance of 1 in 2,700 that asteroid Bennu will hit Earth in 2182 CE. The collision of such medium-sized asteroids (~0.3-1 km in diameter) with our planet can inject massive amounts of dust into the atmosphere, with unknown consequences for terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Here, we use the coupled high-top Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) with interactive chemistry to investigate how medium-sized asteroid strikes would impact climate, vegetation, and marine productivity. Our idealized simulations show that globally dispersed dust layers of up to 400 Tg in mass block shortwave radiation to the surface for nearly two years, resulting in rapid global cooling and delayed weakening of the hydrological cycle for up to four years after the impact. The combined effects of reduced sunlight, cold temperature, and decreased precipitation significantly inhibit photosynthesis in the terrestrial ecosystem for almost nineteen months. Marine phytoplankton production decreases moderately within five months due to reduced sunlight. Subsequently, however, and depending on the iron amount of the asteroid, large diatom blooms occur over the eastern equatorial Pacific and Southern Ocean due to iron fertilization from strong upwelling and dust deposition, respectively.

How to cite: Dai, L. and Timmermann, A.: Climatic and ecological responses to medium-sized asteroid collision, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6896, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6896, 2024.

Seasonal variations in climatic variables, and the resulting changes in vegetation, are strong factors governing ecosystem dynamics in modern and ancient times. Stable isotope ratios recorded in tooth enamel document isotopic variations in the environment at the time of enamel formation and thus reveal the intensity and duration of seasonal dietary and climatic variations. However, the long and multi-phased process of enamel mineralization causes a dampening of the original input signal. An inverse model previously developed for ever-growing canines of Hippopotamus amphibius proposes to recover the original input signal and assumes constant enamel growth rate, appositional angle, and maturation length. The present study aims to test these assumptions. To do so, we integrated data from histological thin sections, microtomodensitometric analyses, and stable isotope analyses on teeth of extant H. amphibius specimens (3 upper canines, 1 lower canine, 1 third molar) to quantify the geometric and temporal patterns of enamel mineralization. To estimate enamel extension rates (EER, in µm/increment), we counted the number of increments representing the position of appositional front for each segment of 5 mm along the enamel-dentine junction in thin sections made along the growth axis of each tooth. We used microtomodensitometry to determine the pattern of enamel maturation using grey values profiles of X-ray radiographies as a proxy for enamel mineralization degree. Serial sampling along one upper canine of an individual from Chad, coming from an environment with one rainy season per year, allowed us to document the intra-tooth d¹³C and d¹⁸O variations over 6 years and thus provided an independent temporal control on histological variations. The histological study showed that the enamel apposition phase is strongly irregular over time within the canines, with no clear temporal trend. EERs vary strongly among teeth and within each tooth (50-200 µm/increment, 100-350 µm/increment, and 80-200 µm/increment for the 3 upper canines; 150-550 µm/increment for the lower canine; 70-130 µm/increment for the third molar). The median EER value from the upper canine of the juvenile individual (ca. 180 µm/increment) is significantly higher than median EER values from the upper canines of two adult individuals (ca. 110 µm/increment). Similar variations are also observed in apposition angles (3°-8°, 2.5°-4.5°, 3°-7° for the 3 upper canines; 2°-8° for the lower canine; 6°-18° for the third molar). The enamel mineralization parameters vary with age and tooth type (canine vs. molar). Based on strongly correlated seasonal variations in d¹³C and d¹⁸O, we also confirm cyclic dietary variations with higher proportions of C₄ plants consumed during the dry seasons. Using the range of enamel mineralization parameters observed within one single hippo canine, we conducted sensitivity tests on the inverse modeling method, producing different modeled input signals that suggest a wider range of uncertainty. In conclusion, the documented intra-canine variability of EER, as well as other histological parameters (apposition angle, maturation length), reveals challenges when applying the current inverse model to wild populations. Future work would benefit from a systematic histological investigation into the sources of variation of enamel growth and mineralization patterns. 

How to cite: Souron, A., Couvrat, M., Pubert, É., Santos, F., Yang, D., Frémondeau, D., Nékoulnang, C., and Otero, O.: Variable enamel growth rates in hippopotamid canines: Implications for seasonality reconstructions using inverse modeling of intra-tooth isotope data, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-22198, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-22198, 2024.

Assessments of the effects of climate change on terrestrial biodiversity typically rely on species distribution models [1] which neither exploit data on historical abundance changes nor consider the potentially important role of climate extremes. Here, we combine global data on the abundance of vertebrate species populations [2] with metrics of exposure to local climate conditions to demonstrate that historical warming and increased exposure to heat, heavy precipitation extremes and drought have had significant impacts on abundance, even after controlling for changing human pressures. Fixed-effects models reveal plausibly causal impacts which vary by species class and habitat system, as well as by latitude and the extent of human pressure. Results indicate that warming and intensified heat extremes have negative impacts at low latitudes for freshwater fish and terrestrial birds. By contrast, warming can bring benefits to freshwater birds and terrestrial mammals. Heavy precipitation extremes and drought appear to have had mainly negative impacts on abundance across species’ and habitats. We then combine these empirical results with estimates of the changes in climate conditions and extremes which are attributable to anthropogenic influence, using an established impact-attribution framework [3]. This approach reveals that anthropogenic climate change has caused considerable alterations to the abundance of terrestrial life, for example by reducing the abundance of terrestrial birds and freshwater fish by up to 40% at low latitudes.

[1] Thomas, Chris D., et al. "Extinction risk from climate change." Nature 427.6970 (2004): 145-148.

[2] Loh, Jonathan, et al. "The Living Planet Index: using species population time series to track trends in biodiversity." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 360.1454 (2005): 289-295.

[3] Mengel, Matthias, et al. "ATTRICI v1. 1–counterfactual climate for impact attribution." Geoscientific Model Development 14.8 (2021): 5269-5284.

How to cite: Kotz, M., Amano, T., Watson, J., and Wenz, L.: Anthropogenic intensification of climate extremes has altered vertebrate species abundance, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19008, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19008, 2024.

Plant species and communities’ distribution are remarkably affected by the climate change, particularly in arctic and alpine biomes. In alpine ecosystems, species and communities are shifting upwards due to the temperature increase, seeking for the optimum growth conditions. As a prominent effect, a progressive increase of vegetation cover is leading an alpine greening, with important consequences for the overall plant diversity. Nonetheless, little is known about how this trend may produce different effects along elevation gradients. Innovative upscaling approaches able to link field monitoring evidence to remote sensing data represent a promising tool to get new insights into the ecological mechanisms involved in these changes, and to produce reliable projections over time. This study aimed at parsing the long-term trends of remote sensing-derived vegetation indices in five GLORIA (Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments) network target regions, located across the Italian Alps and Apennines. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was calculated for each growing season (June-September) in the period 1985-2022, using Landsat 5 and 8 multispectral satellite images of each mountain summit. Linear mixed-effects models were used to analyze the relationships between NDVI, time and climate variables, in different elevation belts. NDVI linearly increased over the last 37 years, but with significant higher increase rates and values at the treeline, lower alpine and alpine zones, compared to the upper alpine, subnival and nival belts. Moreover, NDVI was significantly affected by temperature at lower altitudes, with a significant interaction with rain precipitations, while climate variables were not determinant at high elevations. These results provided further evidence of the ongoing alpine greening and showed that vegetation at the treeline is responding faster than the other communities to a warmer and drier climate. Therefore, future scenarios depicting the fate of alpine plant community communities should not neglect for the interplay of temperature and precipitation regimes. Our finding opens future perspectives on the interpretation of GLORIA field evidence, in a continental upscaling perspective.

How to cite: Vuerich, M., Boscutti, F., Mosanghini, D., and Trotta, G. and the GLORIA Italian Network team: Using long-term remote sensing series to upscale the vegetation shifts along elevation in the GLORIA network Italian peaks, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-18466, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18466, 2024.

Issues related to whether climate change have caused great calamites in human society are of fundamental importance to current climate change research. The causes and ecological consequences of climate change can, of course, be measured at different levels according to different scales because the natural sciences have long understood the verification of causality and importance of scale. Research regarding human responses to climate change in the humanities and social sciences has been less explicit, less precise, and more variable. The growing need for interdisciplinary work in the issues across the natural/social science boundary (gap), however, demands some common understandings about the causality and scaling issues on climate impact. We seek to facilitate the dialogue between natural and social scientists by reviewing some of the fundamental aspects of the philosophical concepts of causality and scale that can be employed in the climate change/human response study, especially as they relate to large scales of the human responses to ever-changing global climate in history. Here we present the common philosophical concepts of causality and scale in natural sciences and social sciences, examine how researchers in the field employ the philosophical concepts to verify the relationship between human societies and climate change using various samples with multiple scales and explore how to connect and break the links between climate change, human calamites and resilience at different levels of hierarchies. 

How to cite: Zhang, D. D.: Scale and Causal inference: from philosophical concepts to empirical verification in relationship between climate change and social responses., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21871, 2024.

Life-history diversity has been shown to contribute to the resilience of species but can be challenging to quantify, particularly where intra-population genetic structure is lacking. Such is the case for salmon within many fisheries of the North American Pacific Northwest, where the resolution of genetic markers is variable and limited. For Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) within the U.S.-Canada transboundary Taku Watershed, for example, single-nucleotide polymorphisms have successfully distinguished populations associated with specific inland lakes but allocates many individuals to an undifferentiated “River Type” stock. The extent and dynamics of geographic structure within this stock, and thus its potential contribution to the fishery’s resilience, remain unresolved.

In such cases, intrinsic non-genetic markers that record key aspects of life history, such as the isotope ratios of body tissues, can provide valuable information on population structure and diversity. We combined a recently published stream network model for strontium stable isotopes (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr) with otolith (ear stone) microchemistry data to infer the geographic natal origins of 45 adult fish captured during the 2019 run. Our analysis was implemented in a Bayesian framework and leveraged radio tag data as a source of prior information. We distinguish 4 previously undifferentiated sub-populations within the River Type stock, characterized by groups of fish with distinct natal ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values and, by inference, natal habitat locations. Although data from additional years will be needed to assess the persistence of these patterns, the result implies potential for previously unrecognized geographic structure within the River Type stock as a contributor to resilience within the population. The lack of genetic differentiation among the subpopulations may suggest that plasticity of habitat use is prevalent and contributes to adaptation. Alternatively, individuals may exhibit strong site fidelity, but differentiation of these sub-populations may be relatively recent or obscured by gene flow. Distinction between these hypotheses should be resolvable by applying the Sr-isotope method to fish recovered across multiple years.

How to cite: Bowen, G., Brennan, K., Brennan, S., and Cline, T.: Decoding Cryptic Population Structures using Stable Isotope Markers, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14207, 2024.