ITS3.2/ERE6.12 | Interdisciplinary approaches bridging geoscience and humanities in times of conflict and peace
EDI
Interdisciplinary approaches bridging geoscience and humanities in times of conflict and peace
Convener: Wendy KhumaloECSECS | Co-conveners: Emnet NegashECSECS, Eoghan Darbyshire, Dominik Collet, Heli Huhtamaa
Orals
| Mon, 15 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST)
 
Room 1.34
Posters on site
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X4
Posters virtual
| Attendance Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Tue, 16 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X4
Orals |
Mon, 14:00
Tue, 16:15
Tue, 14:00
This session aims to bring together traditional and non-traditional perspectives on environmental change. It features contributions, collaborations, perspectives and data from geosciences, historiology, humanities, social sciences, academics, science communicators, civil society, indigenous peoples and citizens. Such a broad and interdisciplinary approach is required to address current “anthroposcenic" challenges, in particular the effective communication of research.

One such challenge we focus on is armed conflict. War is resulting in widespread environmental change in different contexts across the world, often compounding climate and biodiversity challenges. Contributions use innovative techniques and perspectives to characterise the environmental and geophysical dimensions of war, based on research methods including: satellite remote sensing, in-situ and lab-based pollution measurements, and machine learning.

We hope for the session to illustrate the role non-traditional perspectives have in geosciences to broaden and deepen our understanding of compound challenges past and present. This will help open up space for discussion and collaboration between different disciplines and actors into the future.

Orals: Mon, 15 Apr | Room 1.34

Chairpersons: Wendy Khumalo, Robert Watson
14:00–14:05
14:05–14:15
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EGU24-17349
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ECS
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On-site presentation
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Rhonda McGovern, Dr. Francis Ludlow, Dr. Conor Kostick, and Dr. Selga Medeneiks

The Astronomical Diaries and Related Texts from Babylonia is a seven volume transliteration and translation of collected cuneiform texts, originally written on clay tablets, from Babylon (modern day Hillah in Iraq). For many centuries in the first millennium BCE, trained scribes positioned themselves night and day to watch and record the skies. It is the compilation of this work that embodies what are known today as the “astronomical diaries”. These texts provide a wealth of data ranging from sub-daily resolution to monthly summaries including: astronomical features and the movement of stars and planets; market prices for six commodities; river level heights for the Euphrates river; information regarding contemporary events; and meteorological data, which was systematically recorded using specific terminology for particular weather phenomena. So precise is this terminology that a few terms remain untranslated. To date, much work has been conducted on these diaries with the exception of the meteorological data. Doctoral research of the presenting author has involved extracting this into a large dataset to facilitate future analysis.

This research is conducted in an interdisciplinary context, within the wider Climates of Conflict in Ancient Babylonia project, where colleagues explore the potential impact of climate on conflict. The team is comprised of a climate historian with a background in geography, a historian, a geographer and a classicist, who interact with historical linguistic experts, climate modellers, climate scientists, and palaeoscientists. As in this project, the application of historical research is becoming increasingly prevalent in the geosciences. Historic texts have the potential to reveal implicit clues to climatic investigations. The Astronomical Diaries and Related Texts from Babylonia provide, for example, intriguing descriptions of events in which “the disk of the sun looked like that of the moon”, identified as volcanic dust veils and already utilised in updating ice-core chronologies of volcanic eruptions over the last 2,500 years.[1]

This paper will narrate the process of extracting climatic data from historical sources; highlight the pitfalls and triumphs in terms of the practicalities of this interdisciplinary research; and provide a volcanic impacts case study, continuing the scientific endeavour instigated by Babylonian scribes over 2,000 years ago.


[1] Sigl, M., M. Winstrup, J. R. McConnell, K. C. Welten, G. Plunkett, F. Ludlow, U. Büntgen, et al., ‘Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years’ in Nature, dxxiii, no. 7562 (2015), pp. 543–549.

How to cite: McGovern, R., Ludlow, Dr. F., Kostick, Dr. C., and Medeneiks, Dr. S.: Embracing the pitfalls and triumphs in interdisciplinary research., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17349, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17349, 2024.

14:15–14:25
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EGU24-6518
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ECS
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On-site presentation
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Hernán Bobadilla

In the last decade, the “storyline” approach has been developed in the field of attribution and detection of extreme climate events. Despite its merits, the storyline approach has been met with harsh criticism, especially from advocates of probabilistic (or risk-based) approaches. This reaction is amplified by the conflicting conclusions to which storylines and probabilistic approaches often lead. However, this conflict is only apparent, given that probabilistic and storyline approaches typically pursue different research concerns. Accordingly, one way to foster the legitimation of the storyline approach is by conceptualizing its epistemic contributions as a distinctive form of genuine “scientific understanding” under deep uncertainty.

The burgeoning philosophical literature on scientific understanding affords promising resources to undertake the endeavour mentioned above. However, given the recency and diversity of this philosophical field, there is still broad dissent on elementary matters, such as the nature of scientific understanding, its value, and its varieties. Following the school of "philosophy of science in practice", an informative strategy to advance philosophical debates on scientific understanding is to attend to the scientific debates between advocates of probabilistic and storyline approaches, inspect their specific practices, and assess how they should advise philosophical accounts of scientific understanding.

In this sense, there is a twofold problem. On the one hand, storylines require legitimation as an approach that affords a distinct but genuine scientific understanding. On the other hand, the very notion of genuine scientific understanding requires further philosophical elaboration, informed by scientific practices. Accordingly, this paper aims to display the synergies between the storyline approach and the philosophy of scientific understanding to foster the legitimation of the former and advance internal philosophical debates in the latter.

Three axes for synergies are identified and briefly discussed. First, the “factivity” of storyline-based understanding: Philosophers of science disagree on whether scientific understanding is solely grounded on facts or may involve non-factive representations. Storylines are a relevant method to inform these debates as they are not intended to represent factual unfoldings of extreme events. Second, the “effectiveness” of storyline-based understanding: Some philosophers of science argue that scientific understanding is not grounded on particular epistemic credentials (whether factive or non-factive) but rather on its effectiveness. However, it is unclear how untethered the effectiveness of scientific understanding can be from its epistemic credentials. The employment of storylines for decision-making under deep uncertainty affords relevant cases in which to assess the relation effectiveness and factivity of scientific understanding. And third, the “transdisciplinarity” of storyline-based understanding: An overlooked subject in the philosophical literature on scientific understanding is its relations to non-academic epistemic endeavours. This subject is relevant because i) non-academic epistemic agents and endeavours may contribute to scientific understanding, and ii) the integration of non-academic epistemic agents and endeavours into scientific research advances epistemic justice, which is critical to warrant trust in scientists and legitimize scientific understanding across stakeholders. The storyline approach is tailor-made for pondering over local knowledge and experiences, reported qualitatively, thus offering valuable opportunities for civil society to contribute to the scientific understanding of climate uncertainties.

How to cite: Bobadilla, H.: Synergies Between the Storyline Approach and the Philosophy of Scientific Understanding, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6518, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6518, 2024.

14:25–14:35
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EGU24-20730
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Adam Izdebski and Georgios Liakopoulos

Nomadic communities are difficult to detect in the written and material record historians and archaeologists traditionally use to study the past. Contrary to settled grain cultivators, who were easy target for state taxation and were often recorded in a variety of documents, or who left easy to detect traces of permanent villages, nomads often remained outside of the radar of the traditional sources. Nomadic communities, however, profoundly transformed landscapes they lived in. These landscapes, in turn, produced different environmental signals that are preserved in the sedimentary records. Pollen data, in particular, make it possible to reconstruct the presence and activities of nomads in a given area, filling in the gaps in the historical and archaeological record. In our short presentation, we will look at high resolution pollen evidence from Macedonia (Northern Greece) that could be used to trace the presence of transhumant nomads in this region in the last two millennia. We will show how the paleoenvironmental reconstruction can be connected to otherwise fragmentary and problematic written information to create a consilient reconstruction of the past, recovering the presence of diverse groups that inhabited the Northern Greek landscape in the medieval and early modern times.

How to cite: Izdebski, A. and Liakopoulos, G.: Detecting the undecteable: transhumant nomads in palynological data, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20730, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20730, 2024.

14:35–14:45
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EGU24-17186
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On-site presentation
Niklaus Emanuel Bartlome and Richard Michael Warren

The considerable research on the effects of the 1815 Tambora eruption (Behringer 2015) has shown not only to what extent large tropical volcanic eruptions can transform a society but also how advantageous it is for research when geosciences and humanities interlink.

While single eruption events such as Parker in 1640/1641 have already been analysed (Stoffel et al. 2022), there has been less focus on the potential teleconnections of multiple eruptions on one single study area. This paper looks at the climatic and societal impacts of three tropical volcanic eruptions – Huaynaputina (1600), Komaga-take/Parker (1640/1641) and the 1690s unknown event – on Fribourg, a region in the western part of the Swiss Confederation.

To answer this research question meticulously, a transdisciplinary approach is required – both in method and sources. Daring to bridge geosciences and humanities, as part of the VICES research project we developed a data processing tool called ClimeApp, which facilitates the usage of climate data and makes transdisciplinary interaction more accessible, especially for researchers from the humanities (http://mode-ra.unibe.ch/climeapp).

Using ClimeApp, the climatological impact of these 17th century eruptions will be assessed with modern climate reconstruction data from the state-of-the-art ModE-RA project (Valler et al. 2024). Novel archive material from municipal institutions – such as the Hôpital des bourgeois de Fribourg – allows us subsequently to determine the annually recorded harvest yields especially of the viti- and caseiculture. Additionally, essential archival sources, such as the Ratsmanuale (protocols) and the Mandatenbücher (regulations), depict whether the municipality of Fribourg deployed any measures or coping mechanisms in the wake of these volcanic eruptions. This combination of climatological data and historical sources enables us to look for potential interrelations between these climate anomalies and the effect they had on society.

The paper exemplary highlights on one side the advantages of research collaboration between two disciplines and on the other side sheds light on the possible impacts of multiple volcanic eruptions spanned over the period of almost hundred years on the same study region.

How to cite: Bartlome, N. E. and Warren, R. M.: Visible or negligible? Impacts of the 17th century volcanic eruption on climate and society in early modern Switzerland, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17186, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17186, 2024.

14:45–14:55
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EGU24-8221
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Dry land or wet soils? De-standardizing Danish Agriculture using Historical Data
(withdrawn)
Nina Toudal Jessen
Geophysical impacts of armed conflict
14:55–15:05
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EGU24-12062
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Ivan Lizaga, Borja Latorre, Montfort Bagalwa, Bossissi Nkuba, Samuel Bodé, Karume Katcho, Honoré Ciraba, Olivier Evrard, Karen Büscher, Koen Vlassenroot, Kristof Van Oost, William Blake, Ana Navas, and Pascal Boeckx

Human displacements, especially those driven by violent conflicts forcing sudden population migrations, wield profound and enduring impacts on landscapes, instigating substantial disruptions to the natural environment. Beyond immediate destruction, these consequences pose challenges to ecosystem health, food security, and biodiversity conservation, particularly exacerbated in the absence of effective governance. Traditional land management practices, agriculture, and conservation efforts are disrupted, constraining the implementation of long or medium-term conservation practices in agriculture. These disruptions may contribute to increased erosion and sediment transport, depleting soil nutrients and resulting in natural disasters such as flash floods, landslides, and water quality degradation. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced in regions experiencing high rainfall intensity, coupled with inadequate land use and agricultural management practices. Understanding the primary factors behind the last decades escalation in land degradation and subsequent sediment export is crucial to prevent further ecosystem degradation and heightened instability in conflict-affected areas. To address this, we have developed an integrated approach involving core sampling, sediment fingerprinting techniques, high-resolution sediment sampling, and automated remote sensing routines to pinpoint hotspot areas and track conservation efforts. Using the Lake Kivu region as a case study, situated on the border between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, an area marked by prolonged violent conflict since the early 1990s, we evaluate the applicability of this combined approach.

The preliminary results from the multiple techniques independently suggest an increasing trend in exported sediment over the last decade. This trend is particularly pronounced in areas characterized by high instability and economic challenges. In contrast, relatively more stable regions exhibit a stabilization in sedimentation rates. This stability is attributed primarily to the implementation of conservation practices and the presence of robust transport infrastructures, both playing crucial roles in landscape conservation. Results underscore the method's effectiveness in elucidating lasting effects on landscapes impacted by 'polycrisis', necessitating consolidated and comprehensive responses over mere technical solutions. The research objective is to target specific areas within conflict-affected regions, with a focus on mitigating environmental degradation and associated challenges.

How to cite: Lizaga, I., Latorre, B., Bagalwa, M., Nkuba, B., Bodé, S., Katcho, K., Ciraba, H., Evrard, O., Büscher, K., Vlassenroot, K., Van Oost, K., Blake, W., Navas, A., and Boeckx, P.: Long-term Monitoring of Environmental and Geophysical Impacts in Conflict-Endured Zones: A Landscape Perspective on Kivu Lake, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12062, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12062, 2024.

15:05–15:15
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EGU24-13525
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Virtual presentation
Jeremy Allen

A particular challenge threatening global food security is the threat of armed conflict. In particular, the Panjshir valley of northeastern Afghanistan continues to experience acute food insecurity due to intense armed conflict. In this rural valley, conflict driven displacement leads to agricultural land abandonment and decreases in crop yields. These decreases in local food production have an outsized impact on food security, due to the region’s dependence on subsistence agriculture. Despite the consensus that armed conflict has a significant negative impact on the population’s food security, the exact mechanics of how conflict impacts food security remains unclear. 

 

To quantify armed conflict’s impact on local food production, I compare trends in vegetation health between agricultural plots in high-conflict and no-conflict landscapes with similar altitudinal gradients. I focus on the period during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan from 1980-1989, which saw nine major military offensives occur in the Panjshir valley. I use Landsat 5 (1984-2012) to obtain the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values for agricultural plots that have been designated as control (no conflict) and treatment (high conflict). These plots are delineated using HEXAGON KH-9 declassified spy imagery, and assigned conflict intensity designations based on explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) data from The HALO Trust, a non-governmental organisation which carries out unexploded ordnance clearance in Afghanistan. Residual Trend analysis (RESTREND) is applied to Landsat NDVI values to distinguish between the shifts in vegetation health that are anthropogenically and climatically driven. 

 

This research provides a deeper understanding of how past conflict has acted as a driver of food insecurity in the region. Additionally, it allows for future work to build off of these findings and predict how current and future conflict might have an impact. These findings can inform humanitarian and development aid policy, while the methodology can be applied to other contexts where conflict is present. 

How to cite: Allen, J.: Detecting Disturbance to Agricultural Productivity from Historical Armed Conflict in Afghanistan: The Panjshir Offensives, 1980-1985, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13525, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13525, 2024.

15:15–15:25
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EGU24-10494
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Sofiia Drozd, Nataliia Kussul, and Hanna Yailymova

The war in Ukraine, which has been going on since February 2022, has dealt a severe blow to the country's agricultural sector. Millions of hectares of agricultural land have been destroyed by shelling, explosions, and landmines. This has raised concerns about food security in the international community, as Ukraine was a leading producer and exporter of wheat, maize, barley, and sunflower oil before the war. In order to determine the extent of the damage and develop the necessary recovery measures, as well as to formulate effective resource management strategies to ensure the sustainability of the agricultural sector, it is critical to accurately assess and locate the damaged agricultural areas.

Remote sensing, with its advantages in speed, coverage, and objectivity over ground-based methods, combined with machine learning, offers opportunities for the automatic detection of damaged fields across the entire territory of Ukraine and tracking the dynamics of damage development almost in real-time. This research demonstrates the potential of remote sensing and machine learning in detecting and analyzing damaged agricultural fields in Ukraine because of the military conflict.

We utilize freely available two-week composites from the Sentinel-2 satellite with a spatial resolution of 10 meters. The search for damaged fields is conducted in the cloud environment of Google Earth Engine using a random forest binary classifier trained on a manually collected sample by three independent experts. The input parameters for the classifier include static indicators (minimum, average, maximum, variance) of two spectral bands (B2, B3) and two vegetation indices (NDVI and GCI), which have been experimentally found to be the most informative for detecting field damage. Additionally, within the classified damaged fields, we identify local damages using an anomaly detection method. This involves measuring the deviation of values of individual pixels from the mean value of all pixels within a specific field in the spectra of the above-mentioned bands and vegetation indices.

The developed classifier achieves an accuracy of 0.9 for both recall and precision. The anomaly analysis method proves sensitive to the vegetation period and the geographical location of the study area. However, with careful selection of the threshold coefficient, the developed method demonstrates sufficiently accurate results and allows the recognition of craters with an estimated area >50 m².

The results highlight substantial losses to Ukraine's agricultural sector due to the war. It was determined that from the beginning of the conflict until December 4, 2023, more than 1.5 million agricultural fields in Ukraine were damaged, constituting approximately 5.65% of the total sown area. The most affected crops were wheat (489,529 ha or 5.78% of the total cultivated area for this crop), sunflower (115,358 ha or 1.56% of the cultivated area), maize (61,123 ha or 1.2%), and rapeseed (42,783 ha or 2.65%).

Our methods are applicable to large territories for detecting damages to various agricultural crops. The research will be valuable for assessing and restoring damaged lands, as well as for developing strategies for adaptation and resilience of the agricultural sector to other similar crisis situations.

How to cite: Drozd, S., Kussul, N., and Yailymova, H.: Evaluating the Impact of Armed Conflict on Agricultural Sector in Ukraine through Remote Sensing and Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10494, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10494, 2024.

15:25–15:35
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EGU24-8775
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Active European Warzone Impacts Raptor Migration
(withdrawn)
Charlie Russell, Aldina Franco, Philip Atkinson, Ülo Väli, and Adham Ashton-Butt
15:35–15:45
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EGU24-478
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Viktor Karamushka, Svitlana Boychenko, and Ruslan Havryliuk

Since the beginning of the full-scale aggression on 24 February, 2022, primary targets for missiles attacks of Russian Federation were the objects of energy sector of Ukraine.  According to the reports of the State Environmental Inspection of Ukraine, more than 30 units comprising oil depots, product warehouses, refineries, gas stations were destroyed during the March 2022 only. Most of these objects were oil depots.  The purpose of this investigation was an environmental impact assessment of the missile attacks on the petroleum depots. We analysed the cases of destruction of oil depots in Okhtyrka (Okhtyrkanaftogaz), Chernihiv (Aystra), Kalynivka (KLO) and Kryachki (AS Investment), which were completely or partially destroyed. The results of field research, satellite monitoring data, data of the State Environmental Inspection and other state bodies were used for the analysis.

As a result of the attacks, a significant part of petroleum products burned, which caused atmospheric air pollution by combustion products (carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), soot (C), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), marginal hydrocarbons (С12-C19)). The estimated volume of emissions at the Kalynivka oil depot alone is more than 30 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (mt CO2e). Spills of oil products caused pollution and partial burning of the surface layer of soils (at all bases) and penetration of oil products into groundwater with further migration over considerable distances (Kalynivka oil depot). The article presents the results of the monitoring and quantitative assessment of the soil and ground water pollution by oil derivatives as well as plant biodiversity assessment on the territory suffered from the incidents.

How to cite: Karamushka, V., Boychenko, S., and Havryliuk, R.: Environmental consequences resulted from the oil depots’ deterioration by the RF’s missile attacks, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-478, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-478, 2024.

Posters on site: Tue, 16 Apr, 16:15–18:00 | Hall X4

Display time: Tue, 16 Apr 14:00–Tue, 16 Apr 18:00
X4.188
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EGU24-518
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ECS
Burak Can Ünal, Simge Kaya, Cüneyt Atalay, Erkan Aydar, and Orkun Ersoy

Recently, rock fibers have gained attention as versatile and promising substitutes for traditional carbon and glass fibers in a range of industries, including aerospace, defence, construction, and healthcare. Shifting to the use of rock fibers represents a more sustainable and environmentally considerate approach to using natural resources. This transition likely reflects efforts to reduce reliance on less sustainable materials (such as traditional carbon and glass fibers), thereby aligning with broader goals of sustainable resource management and environmental protection. Additionally, their asbestos-free nature in construction materials makes them a healthier industrial raw material, avoiding the health hazards associated with asbestos exposure. As a result, there has been a growing interest in research initiatives aimed at evaluating the potential of volcanic rocks from diverse geographic regions for fiber production. This trend reflects an increased emphasis on understanding the geochemical properties and commercial viability of these rocks in the context of sustainable material development. Turkey's abundant volcanic rock resources offer substantial opportunities for the production of rock fibers. Recent preliminary investigations into the volcanic rocks of Central Anatolia have indicated their suitability for rock fiber production. Within the scope of this study, it is aimed to specifically evaluate the potential of Western Anatolian volcanoes for rock fiber production. Geochemical data obtained in previous studies from volcanic rocks of Western Anatolia (Afyonkarahisar, Denizli, Eskişehir, İzmir, Kütahya, Manisa, Muğla, Uşak) were used. The chemical compositions of 241 rock samples with SiO2 content of less than 63% by weight were evaluated. Using this data, key descriptive coefficients relevant to rock fiber production were calculated, including the total acidity coefficient (Ktotal), total acidity modulus (Mtotal), acidity modulus (Ma), and viscosity modulus (Mv). These metrics were then compared with those derived from rocks from Ukraine, Georgia, and Russia, currently deemed suitable for rock fiber production. Conclusively, this research highlights the potential of Western Anatolian volcanoes as viable sources for rock fiber production.

How to cite: Ünal, B. C., Kaya, S., Atalay, C., Aydar, E., and Ersoy, O.: Evaluation of the Geochemical Compositions of Western Anatolia (Turkey) Volcanic Rocks and Their Suitability for Rock Fiber Production with the Help of Fiber Modules , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-518, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-518, 2024.

X4.189
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EGU24-541
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ECS
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Highlight
Francesca Gambino, Lorenzo Appolonia, Alessandro Borghi, Sylvie Cheney, Roberto Cossio, Stefano Marco De Bernardi, Giovanna Antonella Dino, Stefano Ghignone, and Gabriele Sartorio

The term "archaeometry" was first used in 1958 as the title of a special volume published by the Research Laboratory for Archaeology and Art History at Oxford University.  Archaeometry is a scientific discipline that employs various techniques primarily for the identification of sites, settlement patterns, archaeological stratigraphy, and the production and analysis of found artefacts.

Ancient buildings, artifacts, and finds consist predominantly of natural and artificial resources obtained from geological sources. Geosciences techniques are optimal for obtaining information on the origin and technological properties of archaeological artefacts and materials used in cultural heritage from geological sources.

This study conducted a petrographic and geochemical analysis of historical mortars from the Roman Theatre of Aosta and the Medieval Sarriod de la Tour Castel located in the Aosta Valley in North-West Italy. Mineralogical phase-specific distribution of elements in mortar samples was calculated using a semi-automated method of image analysis incorporating multivariate statistical analysis of X-ray spectral images. Based on SEM backscattering, a cluster image analysis was conducted to determine the ratio of aggregate, binder, and porosity. Additionally, simple algebraic operations were utilized to fully quantify the oxides in every EDS spectrum, and to compute the distribution of Hydraulicity Index (HI) within the examined domains.

This study provided many answers about supply areas, variation of raw materials over time, network/transport systems, development and production processes. The petrographic analysis has enabled identification of both the binder and aggregate type. Specifically, it has afforded information on the type of raw material used to produce the lime, the ratio of binder to aggregate, the origin of the aggregate (sedimentary or crushed rock) and its composition.

These investigations were conducted in close collaboration with archaeologists to reconstruct the exchanges between ancient civilizations and evaluate their technological progress.

Ultimately, the progress of geosciences within the field of Cultural Heritage highlights how this type of study is essential for the dissemination and museology of what represents the culture of materials from  archaeological, historical and scientific point of view.

How to cite: Gambino, F., Appolonia, L., Borghi, A., Cheney, S., Cossio, R., De Bernardi, S. M., Dino, G. A., Ghignone, S., and Sartorio, G.: Archaeometry in geosciences: the study of ancient geomaterials for archaeological investigations., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-541, 2024.

X4.190
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EGU24-702
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ECS
Recognizing the shifting ontologies of temporary wetlands through the lens of sociohydrology: Case study of Merjas of the Gharb plain, Morocco
(withdrawn)
Hajar Choukrani
X4.191
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EGU24-1083
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ECS
Indigenous Wisdom and Geological Understanding: Exploring Andean Indigenous Perspectives on Geology Through Myths and Legends in Ecuadorian Geoparks. 
(withdrawn)
Lisbeth Ona and Patricia Rengel
X4.192
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EGU24-14508
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ECS
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Highlight
Finding the dry dense forests in Africa: the central role of local knowledge in the process of classifying forest types in Southeast Angola
(withdrawn after no-show)
Luisa Escobar Alvarado
X4.193
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EGU24-19686
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Highlight
Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Andrea Seim, and Dominik Collet

On the basis of our new state-of-the-art research review article “Famines in medieval and early modern Europe – Connecting climate and society”, published in WIREs Climate Change this year, we provide an overview of recent scholarship on food insecurity and famines in Europe during the medieval and early modern periods (c. 700–1800). Focus is placed on how, and to what extent, climatic change and variability can explain the occurrence and severity of food shortages and famines during these periods. Current research, supported by recent advances in palaeoclimatology, has revealed that anomalous cold conditions were the main environmental backdrop for severe food production crises that could result in famines in pre-industrial Europe. Such food crises occurred most frequently between c. 1550 and 1710 during the climax of the Little Ice Age cooling. They can, to a large extent, be connected to the strong dependency on grain in Europe during this period and the limited possibility for long-distance transportation of bulk goods in inland regions. The available body of research demonstrates that famines in medieval and early modern Europe can be best understood as the result of the interactions of climatic and societal stressors responding to pre-existing societal vulnerabilities. We provide some recommendations for future studies on historical food shortages and famines in connection to climatic stress on food production.

How to cite: Charpentier Ljungqvist, F., Seim, A., and Collet, D.: Climate variability and food (in)security in medieval and early modern Europe: synthesising the state-of-the-art, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-19686, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19686, 2024.

X4.194
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EGU24-20449
Depleted uranium migration in soil vadose zone due to a corroded penetrator of former armed conflicts
(withdrawn)
Yuheng Wang, Cui Li, Yanru Liang, Markus Astner, David J. Paterson, Linlin Wang, Paul Guagliardo, Matvei Aleshin, Mario Burger, and Peter M. Kopittke
X4.195
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EGU24-13698
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ECS
After the Waters Receded: Destruction of Khakovka Dam Affects Ukraine’s Agricultural Production
(withdrawn after no-show)
Sheila Baber, Yuval Sadeh, and Inbal Becker-Reshef
X4.196
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EGU24-20528
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ECS
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Abdullah Sukkar, Sara Essoussi, Omar Alqaysi, Enes Hisam, and Dursun Zafer Seker

During the 20th century and continuing into the present, significant warming was observed due to the emission of greenhouse gases, primarily CO2 and CH4, into the atmosphere. The sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates a warming of 1.1°C above 1850-1900 in 2011-2020. As climate warming continues to reshape atmospheric conditions and trigger extreme weather events such as drought, forest fires, and floods. The intricate relationship between these changes and vegetation dynamics becomes increasingly evident, profoundly affecting ecological systems, agriculture, and politics. Vegetation is an essential component in ecological systems since it serves as a connection between soil, atmosphere, and water; and plays a crucial role in maintaining the balance of carbon and water, facilitating the exchange of materials and energy, ensuring climate stability, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Generally, changes in vegetation are analyzed to assess the environmental conditions at both regional and global levels. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is a commonly employed tool for analyzing variations in vegetation dynamics. Examining these changes and their triggers is crucial for comprehending the relationships between vegetation and ecosystems. Syria, located at the intersection of Asia and the Mediterranean, is an area with a high level of water scarcity and is susceptible to extreme droughts, especially in the northeastern region, where temperature and evaporation have significant impacts. The land cover in the northeastern region has undergone significant alterations in recent decades due to the armed conflict, which its effects on the land use and land cover (LULC) are neither unidirectional nor spatially uniform. Research and policy alike have given careful consideration to the relationship between conflict and climate change. Extreme weather events, like droughts, have been shown to correspond with the start of armed conflicts occasionally. The most widely proposed mechanism between climate change and violent conflict is the relationship between shocks to agricultural productivity and the degradation of vegetation. In this study, the ERA5-Land data has been used to analyze the climatic conditions in northeast Syria between 2000 and 2023. In addition, the satellite images of Landsat 5, 7, 8, and 9 have been used to generate NDVI maps. Then, a correlation between the meteorological parameters and the NDVI was established to examine how climate change and drought have affected the green cover in the study area, especially after 2011, when the armed conflict started. Meteorological parameters such as temperature, soil temperature, precipitation, and evaporation on an hourly scale have been applied. The drought events have been addressed by the number of precipitation events, precipitation accumulation, and precipitation intensity. Moreover, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which is considered as a global standard for evaluating the severity of drought, has also been used for various time scales (3, 6, 9, and 12 months). The study highlighted how climate change had affected the vegetation areas in the northeastern region of Syria. The results emphasized different drought events and mapped the change in the LULC through the time period of the study.

How to cite: Sukkar, A., Essoussi, S., Alqaysi, O., Hisam, E., and Seker, D. Z.: Investigating Impacts of Climate Change and War on the Green Cover Area in Northeast Syria Between 2000 and 2023, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-20528, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20528, 2024.

Posters virtual: Tue, 16 Apr, 14:00–15:45 | vHall X4

Display time: Tue, 16 Apr 08:30–Tue, 16 Apr 18:00
vX4.20
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EGU24-21661
Yuliia Spinova and Oleksii Vasyliuk

Military actions create a number of destructive effects on natural and agricultural landscapes. These influences, which can be seen now during Russia's war in Ukraine, are short-term and their role in the future will consist more in how exactly they will change the territories usage regime. Long-term inaccessibility of territories due to occupation, mining and land pollution are the cause of large-scale spontaneous restoration of semi-natural ecosystems. While Ukraine does not have the opportunity to implement restoration projects on the occupied lands, there continue natural transformation processes that will determine the content of decisions to be made.

For example, the former Kakhovske Reservoir, which HPP and dam were blown up by retreating Russian troops on June 6, 2023, and water flooded out of it. Our research showed almost immediately recovering of native vegetation there. By the end of the year, this recovery led to the natural young forest appearance on a large area freed from the artificial reservoir. This process will allow to restore up to 1,800 km2 of natural ecosystems (of which at least 1,000 km2 will be climate-resistant forests) and about 250 km of the free-flow Dnipro river. Such a large ecosystem restoration can become a decisive Ukrainian contribution to the European Union ecosystems revival by 2030.

On the other hand, if the project of the Kakhovske Reservoir restoration, which requires the destruction of all the mentioned square kilometers of natural ecosystems, will be implemented, this is categorically not in line with the ideas of sustainable development. Therefore, the natural processes of recovery will significantly influence the decision-making in Ukraine and its support by the partner states.

In fact, the scale of these processes is already impressive. A comparison of MODIS thermal imaging data for the year 2023 with similar ones of previous years shows that all areas where hostilities were/are being conducted, as well as mined, have turned into large-scale overgrowth with vegetation. Thus, intensive spontaneous vegetation overgrowth, caused by the local population outflow local population and the economic influence cessation of economic influence, including plowing and pesticides use, is already taking place on an area about 1 million hectares. In the short-term perspective undoubtedly there are significant component of invasive plant species, but native perennial species will gradually displace them over time.

Currently, it is not known how long the occupation will last, let alone its demining. According to preliminary estimates of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, announced in 2022 - more than 70 years. In this case carrying out demining, there may already grow a 70-year-old forest on the aftermost territories, and mines will be buried deep in the ground under tree roots. So already now the expediency of complete demining can be questioned and we offer not to plan it for the most injured territories and around protected areas. Spontaneous ecosystem restoration there can become a powerful contribution of Ukraine into state tasks on preservation of degraded lands, as well as international obligations in the field struggle from climate change.

How to cite: Spinova, Y. and Vasyliuk, O.: Post-war rewilding as a decision-making influence-factor, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21661, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21661, 2024.

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EGU24-21994
Yuliia Spinova, Iryna Vyshenska, Anastasia Sakva, and Oleksii Vasyliuk

Soil damage as a result of military actions is primarily associated with shell bursts, as well as with the movement of heavy equipment, fortifications construction and related processes, such as fires caused by them and following changes in the phytodiversity.

The impact on the physical condition of soils occurs through a pneumatic effect - that is, upturning the soil by explosions, and changes due to the equipment movement, digging trenches and other fortifications.

Changes in the chemical and biological characteristics of the soil occur as a result of animal and human corpses decomposition products, of fuels and lubricants leakage from heavy equipment, and also a large amount of abandoned equipment, or its remnants, chemicals from projectiles and debris contamination.

Shelling accompanied by explosions, as well as the use of lighting and incendiary projectiles led to large-scale fires, which deplete soil nutrients (particularly humus and minerals such as magnesium and phosphorus). In addition to changing the chemical composition, high temperatures destroy pedobionts, which have a direct impact on both the chemical and physical condition of the soil, and are responsible for its fertility and stability. In the future, such changes may lead to accelerated erosion. Oil products from heavy machinery are quickly absorbed, especially into dry and sandy soils. As a result, physical and chemical characteristics change, water and air permeability and microbiological processes are disturbed, so soil degradation occurs. Besides the direct impact, the process of soil contamination with fuel substances can lead to easy ignition and large-scale fires.

The most widely used weapons in this war are 82 mm and 120 mm high-explosive shells, 125 mm high-explosive and cumulative shells, 122 mm, 152 mm, 203.3 mm, 240 mm high-explosive, incendiary and illuminating shells.

We made calculations of the burnings spread, identified correlations between them and shellings using QGis and NASA data on the Buchansky district for February 24, 2022 – June 26, 2022. In total, 2.712 burnings were detected for that 4 months of Russia's full-scale invasion on the territory of Buchansky district (area is 2.558 km²). Most of them took place within the settlements where battles were fought.

With satellite images from the open database of Maxar Technologies we analyzed the most affected soil surfaces in this district.

One of the chosen plots is represented by the Irpin River meadows and is the Emerald network site. 18 impact marks were counted here in total: 4 bursts from 82-mm shells, 8 bursts from 122-mm and 6 – from 152-mm shells. An additional external analysis of a young pine forest area showed the vegetation overgrowth is no more than 10% after 2.5 months of succession process and represented by ruderal and segetal plant species.

Moreover, 8 objects of the Nature Reserve Fund of Ukraine with particularly valuable ecosystems in the Buchansky district were affected by military operations and their stability is currently significantly reduced.

How to cite: Spinova, Y., Vyshenska, I., Sakva, A., and Vasyliuk, O.: Study of the military actions impact on the Buchansky district soils (Kyiv Region, Ukraine), EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-21994, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-21994, 2024.

vX4.22
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EGU24-2916
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ECS
The need for modelling resilience in food distribution and trade relations in post-nuclear war recovery
(withdrawn after no-show)
Christopher Yan-Chak Chan and Giuseppe Dal Prá