NP1.1 | Mathematics of Planet Earth: From Deterministic to Stochastic Dynamics and Predictability
EDI
Mathematics of Planet Earth: From Deterministic to Stochastic Dynamics and Predictability
Convener: Vera Melinda GalfiECSECS | Co-conveners: Francisco de Melo ViríssimoECSECS, Manita ChoukseyECSECS, Naiming Yuan, Javier Amezcua, Christian Franzke, Guannan HuECSECS
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room K2, Thu, 18 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST)
 
Room K2
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X4
Posters virtual
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X4
Orals |
Wed, 16:15
Posters on site |
Wed, 10:45
Posters virtual
Wed, 14:00
Taking inspiration from the Mathematics of Planet Earth 2013 initiative, this session aims at bringing together contributions from the growing interface between the Earth science, mathematical, and theoretical physical communities. Our goal is to stimulate the interaction among scientists of these and related disciplines interested in solving environmental and geoscientific challenges. Considering the urgency of the ongoing climate crisis, such challenges refer, for example, to the theoretical understanding of the climate and its subsystems as a highly nonlinear, chaotic system, the improvement of the numerical modelling via theory-informed and data-driven methods, the search for new data analysis methods, and the quantification of different types of impacts of global warming.

Specific topics include: PDEs, numerical methods, extreme events, statistical mechanics, thermodynamics, dynamical systems theory, large deviation theory, response theory, tipping points, model reduction techniques, model uncertainty and ensemble design, stochastic processes, parametrisations, data assimilation, and machine learning. We invite contributions both related to specific applications as well as more speculative and theoretical investigations. We particularly encourage early career researchers to present their interdisciplinary work in this session.

Orals: Wed, 17 Apr | Room K2

Chairpersons: Manita Chouksey, Vera Melinda Galfi, Francisco de Melo Viríssimo
16:15–16:20
5-minute convener introduction
EGU24-6791
|
solicited
|
Highlight
|
On-site presentation
A Foray of Dynamics into the Realm of Statistics: A Review of Ensemble Forecasting
Zoltan Toth et al.
EGU24-4179
|
On-site presentation
Initial-Value vs. Model-Induced Forecast Errors: A New Perspective
Zoltan Toth and Isidora Jankov
EGU24-6164
|
ECS
|
Highlight
|
On-site presentation
An ensemble based approach for the effect of climate change on the dynamics of extremes
Dániel Jánosi et al.
EGU24-14101
|
Highlight
|
On-site presentation
Mathematics of Sea Ice and its Ecosystems
Kenneth Golden
EGU24-18809
|
ECS
|
Highlight
|
On-site presentation
Characterization of Edge States as Gateway to a Collapse of the Atlantic Ocean Circulation
Johannes Lohmann
EGU24-21689
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Intraseasonal atmospheric variability under climate trends
Bernardo Maraldi et al.

Orals: Thu, 18 Apr | Room K2

Chairpersons: Naiming Yuan, Christian Franzke
08:30–08:35
5-minute convener introduction
EGU24-1133
|
ECS
|
solicited
|
On-site presentation
Long-time behaviour of stochastic geophysical fluid dynamics models.
Giulia Carigi
EGU24-17713
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
The selective boundary crossing in stochastic processes driven by white shot noise
Giulio Calvani and Paolo Perona
EGU24-8590
|
On-site presentation
A stochastic model for the turbulent ocean heat flux under Arctic sea ice 
Srikanth Toppaladoddi and Andrew Wells
EGU24-13180
|
On-site presentation
Route to chaos and resonant triads interaction in a truncated Rotating Nonlinear shallow-water model
francesco Carbone and Denys Dutykh
EGU24-2554
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Koopman operator theory for enhanced Pacific SST forecasting
Paula Lorenzo Sánchez et al.
EGU24-9569
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Impact Predictability: Exploring Extremes in Biosphere Dynamics with Recurrent Neural Networks
Francesco Martinuzzi et al.
EGU24-119
|
ECS
|
Highlight
|
On-site presentation
Advancements in Medicanes Tracking and Forecasting Using Artificial Intelligence
Javier Martinez-Amaya et al.
Coffee break
Chairpersons: Lesley De Cruz, Christian Franzke, Naiming Yuan
10:45–10:50
5-minute convener introduction
EGU24-14208
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Unbiased fully nonlinear data assimilation: the Stochastic Particle Flow Filter
Hao-Lun Yeh and Peter Jan van Leeuwen

Posters on site: Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 | Hall X4

Display time: Wed, 17 Apr 08:30–Wed, 17 Apr 12:30
Chairpersons: Vera Melinda Galfi, Naiming Yuan
EGU24-18525
|
ECS
|
OSPP
|
On-site presentation
Characterising Edge States: Measures on chaotic non-attracting invariant sets
Raphael Roemer and Peter Ashwin
EGU24-19041
|
ECS
|
Highlight
|
On-site presentation
Mean exit times as global measure of resilience of tropical forest systems under climatic disturbances
(withdrawn)
Yayun Zheng and Niklas Boers
EGU24-1008
|
ECS
|
OSPP
|
On-site presentation
Statistical properties for a spatially heteregeneous one-dimensional energy balance model perturbed by additive noise
Gianmarco Del Sarto and Franco Flandoli
EGU24-7142
|
Highlight
|
On-site presentation
Well-Posedness of the Dynamic Framework in Earth-System Model 
Ruxu Lian et al.
EGU24-15777
|
On-site presentation
Comparison of several approximation schemes on the Cubed Sphere
Jean-Pierre Croisille et al.
EGU24-1469
|
On-site presentation
On the hydrostatic approximation in rotating stratified flow
Achim Wirth
EGU24-17968
|
ECS
|
OSPP
|
On-site presentation
Understanding the atmospheric kinetic energy spectrum
Salah Kouhen et al.
EGU24-5287
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Exploring the Potential of History Matching for Land Surface Model Calibration
Nina Raoult et al.
EGU24-10174
|
On-site presentation
Alternative approaches to the velocity of climate change: assessment against observations
Jérôme Kasparian et al.
EGU24-8626
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Integration of Wind Resource Assessment through Multi-scale Coupling Method
Shanxun Sun and Hao Li
EGU24-2404
|
On-site presentation
Data Assimilation with Biases & Random Errors
Juan Restrepo et al.
EGU24-17987
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Surrogate-based data assimilation for microscale atmospheric pollutant dispersion
Eliott Lumet et al.
EGU24-15676
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Observer-based data assimilation for shallow water equations
Teresa Kunkel et al.
EGU24-14180
|
Highlight
|
On-site presentation
Advancing Forecast Precision: Data-Driven Model Generation via Data Assimilation
(withdrawn)
Michael Goodliff and Takemasa Miyoshi

Posters virtual: Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–15:45 | vHall X4

Display time: Wed, 17 Apr 08:30–Wed, 17 Apr 18:00
Chairpersons: Guannan Hu, Javier Amezcua
EGU24-4639
|
ECS
|
Virtual presentation
Seasonal Prediction of China's Overall Ozone Pollution
(withdrawn)
Yuan Chen and Yongwen Zhang