Land Use Land Change analysis over time using the WEI index under climate change conditions: Application to Valencia Metropolitan Area (Spain)

This study examines the urban sprawl of Valencia and its metropolitan area over the past decades, focusing on the conversion of agricultural land into urban areas. The study is done using the WEI composite indicator which provides a quantitative framework for assessing the environmental value of the territory over time. To calculate the WEI values, official databases such as the Land Use Information System of Spain (SIOSE) and the World Settlement Footprint (WSF) were utilized.

The study's findings indicate that the growing urbanization of the Valencia metropolitan area has exacerbated the impacts of natural disasters, particularly flooding. Urban expansion in protected areas, such as the Albufera Natural Park, has heightened the risks associated with climate change by increasing soil impermeability and reducing water absorption capacity, thereby increasing vulnerability to extreme events. The analysis highlights how changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have intensified these impacts, as evidenced during the DANA event in October 2024. These findings emphasize the urgent need for sustainable urban planning and improvements in drainage infrastructure to mitigate flood risks, safeguarding both urban areas and natural spaces against future catastrophic events.