Skillful Seasonal Prediction of Indian Wind Energy Resources during Summer Monsoon Season

India’s wind power generation capacity in India has experienced substantial growth in recent years, with peak wind energy resources occurring during the summer monsoon season. However, the considerable variability in wind power availability, driven by interannual monsoon fluctuations, presents a key challenge. This underscores the need for reliable seasonal wind energy predictions to support effective energy system planning and operations.

Here we use the seasonal prediction products from GFDL’s Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System (SPEAR) for assessing the seasonal prediction skill of wind power in India. SPEAR demonstrates strong predictive skill for wind energy resources during the summer monsoon, providing accurate forecasts multiple months in advance. An advanced predictability analysis identifies the primary source of this predictive skill as the year-to-year variations in ENSO, which influence large-scale anomalous wind patterns over India. Additionally, the Indian ocean basin mode variability also significantly contributes to the skillful prediction of Indian wind energy resources. Therefore, the capability of SPEAR to provide skillful seasonal wind energy predictions offers potential benefits for optimizing wind energy utilization during the energy peak season in India.