Heatwaves Intensify Power Shortages in Developing Countries

Global electricity generation depends on cooling-reliant plants (78%), but rising temperatures could reduce their output. Steam-cycle air-cooling (ST-AC) technology, which is poorly adapted to high temperatures, is widely used in power plants in developing countries (40.7%) compared to developed ones (25.2%). However, few studies have evaluated the performance of different cycle-cooling technologies under heat stress. Here, we developed a Global Power Plant Dataset comprising 109,110 thermal and nuclear power units across six fuel types and seven cycle-cooling technologies, resulting in 32 distinct fuel-technology combinations. We then assessed the impact of heatwave events on these fuel-technology combinations at the plant level, and the effects of generation losses on residents under three SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) - RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios. From 2030 to 2060, losses are expected to reach 1205.4 (±255.1) TWh under SSP5-8.5, accounting for 5.2% (±1.1%) of the annual global output of thermal and nuclear plants, which is 1.4 to 2.4 times higher than under SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-1.9. Vulnerable plants, including India’s coal-fired ST-AC Mundra plant, Congo’s gas-fired gas turbine Côte Matève plant, and Mexico’s oil-fired steam-cycle once-through cooling Lopez Mateos plant, could experience losses that put millions of residents in these regions at risk of electricity accessibility. Identifying these vulnerable plants would support developing countries' efforts to adapt their power sectors to a warming future.