Modeling the Impact of Land Use Dynamics on Flooding: A Case Study of Hafr Al-Batin, Saudi Arabia

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes are known to significantly affect hydrological processes, directly influencing the frequency, magnitude, and spatial distribution of flood events. This study focuses on understanding the impact of LULC changes on flood dynamics in Hafr Al-Batin, Saudi Arabia, a region highly susceptible to flooding due to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors. Remote sensing data, acquired from satellite imagery for multiple time periods, will be utilized to map and analyze changes in LULC using supervised classification techniques. These analyses will focus on key drivers of land use change, such as urban expansion, deforestation, agricultural intensification, and their role in altering watershed characteristics. To assess the hydrological implications of these changes, the Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) will be used to simulate critical processes such as surface runoff, infiltration, and stream discharge to evaluate how LULC transitions influence flood patterns over time. Integrating historical flood data with HEC-HMS outputs will provide a comprehensive understanding of how LULC changes exacerbate or mitigate flood risks. The study aims to bridge gaps in knowledge regarding the interplay between land use dynamics and flood risks in arid and semi-arid regions like Hafr Al-Batin. The findings are expected to support the development of evidence-based land management strategies, sustainable watershed planning, and flood risk mitigation measures tailored to the region’s unique environmental and socio-economic context. Ultimately, this research seeks to contribute to disaster risk reduction efforts, helping to safeguard communities and infrastructure from the increasing threats posed by floods in the face of changing land use patterns.