Dynamical Diagnostics of the Prolonged May-June 2024 Heatwave Over India: Evaluation and Validation using IMD’s GFS Model.

The unprecedented heatwave over India in May- June 2024 has raised significant concerns regarding its underlying dynamics and potential impacts. This study investigates the prolonged heatwave event by combining dynamical diagnostics and numerical simulations using the Global Forecast System (GFS) model used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). We first analyze the synoptic conditions and large-scale atmospheric patterns contributing to the persistence and intensity of the heatwave. The dynamical diagnostics reveal the role of Hadley Cell expansion, blocking high-pressure systems and regional thermodynamic conditions in sustaining extreme temperatures. Further, IMD’s GFS model products evaluate and validate the heatwave event, focusing on capturing temperature anomalies' spatial and temporal evolution. The model outputs are validated against observational data, demonstrating high accuracy in reproducing the critical characteristics of the heatwave. The results indicate that the combined effect of rapid solar insolation and anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns played a crucial role in the development and persistence of the heatwave. The study also highlights the importance of high-resolution numerical simulations in understanding complex meteorological phenomena and provides insights into improving heatwave prediction and preparedness strategies. This comprehensive analysis of the May-June 2024 heatwave over India would contribute to the broader understanding of extreme weather events in the context of climate variability and change.