Please note that this session was withdrawn and is no longer available in the respective programme. This withdrawal might have been the result of a merge with another session.
NH10.5 | Toward a cross-discipline vision on quantification and communication of uncertainty in forecasting natural hazards: is it possible?
EDI
Toward a cross-discipline vision on quantification and communication of uncertainty in forecasting natural hazards: is it possible?
Convener: Jacopo Selva | Co-conveners: Alberto Viglione, Samantha Engwell, Raffaella Russo, Enrico BaglioneECSECS
All the forecasts are connected to some level of uncertainty. When the forecast is applied to natural hazards, existing uncertainty may become critical, as significant changes in the forecasts may play a major role in the definition of risk reduction actions.

While this is pervasive across all natural hazards, significantly different approaches have been defined in the different disciplines of Earth Sciences, both in the definition of methods to quantify uncertainty, and in the selection of specific communication strategies for decision-makers or for the general public. Indeed, the need of accounting for and communicate uncertainty, coupled with the capacity of developing adequate models to this aim, strongly influenced how and at which level uncertainty has been included and communicated in forecasting models.
This session is dedicated to foster cross-discipline exchange of existing experiences as well as ongoing efforts in the quantification, communication, and use of uncertainty in decision-making along the different disciplines of Earth Sciences.