We aim to bring together excellent research about past, present, and future biodiversity, using data from field sampling, and airborne or space-based remote sensing observations. We welcome studies ranging from local-scale field experiments to large-scale theoretical modeling, including both individual-ecosystem (i.e. terrestrial, marine and freshwater systems) and cross-ecosystem studies. We explicitly welcome novel conceptual ideas, large-scale observations, field experiments, earth system modeling, or data synthesis related to biodiversity change across spatial and temporal scales, and from various data sources toward a better understanding of global change impacts on biodiversity.
BG3.20 Borealization of tundra ecosystems
Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems are changing fast in response to ongoing climate change and increased human pressures linked to land use changes. One observed phenomenon in response to these changes is the northward and upward shift in the distribution of temperate or boreal species from southerly latitudes or lower elevations, a process known as borealization. Examples of tundra borealization include the encroachment of woody species, the spread of non-native species, and changes in the composition of plant, animal and microbial communities. Borealization also alters the trophic and functional structure of ecosystems, changes landscape structure and impacts ecosystem processes such as the strength of carbon sink and sources.
Abstract
Agricultural trade was an important driver of habitat and biodiversity loss in the recent decades (Chaudhary & Kastner 2016). Yet, it might also have increased land use efficiency and the net biodiversity impacts are heterogeneous across regions, commodities and spatial scales (Kastner et al. 2021, Roux et al. 2021). Trade greening is identified as a key leverage point to reverse global biodiversity declines (Chan et al. 2020), and future trade could be deeply affected by the food system sustainability transition needed to reach ambitious goals for climate, biodiversity and people (Leclère et al. 2020). To explore uncertainties in the co-evolution of agricultural trade and biodiversity in the coming decades, we used the GLOBIOM partial equilibrium model of the agricultural, forestry, bioenergy and aquaculture sectors (Havlík et al. 2014) to quantify a set of scenarios.
A first scenario dimension contrasted a future baseline prolongating historical trends (Middle of the Road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2, Popp et al. 2016) with additional efforts towards bending the curve of global biodiversity loss (Leclère et al. 2020) including increased conservation and restoration alone, or cumulated with a faster convergence of agricultural yields, reduced waste and increased share of plant-based products in diets. These scenarios are first combined with the standard SSP2 trade setup, and then combined with three alternative future trade variants as a second scenario dimension (Enhanced trade liberalization, Frictions and reconfigurations, Trade greening).
Preliminary results showed positive future socio-economic impacts and negative future environmental impacts in a scenario prolongating historical trends. Assuming an exacerbated liberalization worsened environmental impacts for mixed effects on socio-economic indicators, while trade frictions & reconfiguration would have mild environmental gains and negative socio-economic impacts as compared to the baseline. Trade Greening could have moderate positive impacts on all metrics as compared to the baseline. Relatively high levels of future increases in trade flows were found despite lower environmental impacts when assuming additional conservation and supply-side efforts. However, assuming additional demand-side efforts was more disruptive, with much larger environmental gains and food security risk reduction as compared to the baseline, but also much smaller future increases in agricultural value added and trade flows.
References:
Chan, KMA et al. (2020) Levers and leverage points for pathways to sustainability. DOI: 10.1002/pan3.10124
Chaudhary, A, Kastner, T. (2016) Land use biodiversity impacts embodied in international food trade. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.03.013
Kastner, T et al. (2021) Global agricultural trade and land system sustainability: Implications for ecosystem carbon storage, biodiversity, and human nutrition. DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.09.006
Roux, N et al. (2021) Does agricultural trade reduce pressure on land ecosystems? Decomposing drivers of the embodied human appropriation of net primary production. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106915
Leclère, D et al. (2020) Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2705-y
Havlík, P et al. (2014) Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1308044111
Popp, A et al. (2016) Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.002
How to cite: Leclere, D., Palazzo, A., Janssens, C., Hill, S., Boere, E., Meinhart, B., and Havlik, P.: Exploring the role of agricultural trade in the future of nature and people, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19674, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19674, 2025.
Heavy metal pollution poses significant threats to global ecosystems, impacting biodiversity, soil and water quality, and human health. Traditional remediation methods often fall short, especially in ecologically sensitive regions. In response, phytoremediation offers a sustainable solution, leveraging plant species that naturally absorb heavy metals. This study explores the effectiveness of phytoremediation in Pin Valley National Park, Himachal Pradesh, India, integrating advanced remote sensing techniques—proximal, airborne, and space-borne data collection—to assess contamination levels and monitor environmental changes from 2010 to 2023. Proximal sensing utilized a spectroradiometer for high-resolution spectral data collection, while drones facilitated vast coverage, and satellites (Landsat-8, Landsat-9, and Sentinel-2) provided extensive temporal and spatial data. Vegetation and environmental health were analyzed using various indices, including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Red Edge (NDRE), and Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI). These indices indicated plant vigor and environmental degradation. The Heavy Metal Index, Iron-Oxide Index, and Hydrothermal Index measured contamination levels, revealing significant correlations between heavy metal concentrations and vegetation stress markers. Results indicated a notable relationship between high NDVI values and low heavy metal concentrations, underscoring the efficacy of phytoremediation. Species like Indian mustard (Brassica juncea) and hemp (Cannabis sativa) emerged as key players in metal uptake, with Brassica juncea showing biomass lead accumulation of up to 2,500 mg/kg and Cannabis sativa exhibiting cadmium uptake of 900 mg/kg. The study identified minimal levels of heavy metals, such as Yttrium (3-11 ppb), Strontium (20-32 ppb), and Cadmium (0.045-0.170 ppb), across site locations.The application of remote sensing technology enabled precise mapping of metal concentrations and plant health, optimizing phytoremediation efforts. Longitudinal data revealed increasing NDVI values in reclaimed areas, rising from 0.35 to 0.65, indicating improved vegetation health and cover. Corresponding reductions in Heavy Metal Index values confirmed a decrease in contamination levels. This underscores remote sensing's critical role in ongoing environmental monitoring—rapidly identifying contamination hotspots, optimizing plant selection, and efficient resource allocation while ensuring reliable results across various scales. In conclusion, this research validates the effectiveness of combining phytoremediation with remote sensing technologies to address heavy metal contamination. The study’s framework is adaptable to various ecological contexts and contaminant profiles, highlighting its potential as a practical tool for environmental restoration worldwide. The findings contribute significantly to academic knowledge while offering actionable insights for policymakers and environmental managers dedicated to preserving ecosystems and promoting ecological resilience and sustainability. Continued refinement of these technologies will enhance global efforts to combat heavy metal pollution and support sustainable land management practices.
Keywords: Environmental Monitoring, Metal contamination, Phytoremediation, Pin Valley NP, Hyperspectral, Normalized Difference Red Edge Index (NDRE), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Soil-adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), Strontium, Rubidium, Yttrium
How to cite: Sharma, D. and Galodha, A.: Advanced ecosystem restoration: Blending phytoremediation with satellite-based and non-imaging based remote sensing in the Himalayas of PIN Valley National Park, India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20611, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20611, 2025.
There is an urgent need for planning actions to mitigate biodiversity loss worldwide, which involves developing assessment methods to help decision-makers identifying areas most at risk and prioritizing action. This requires robust data and analyses but it also implies thinking about realistic and cost-effective measures. Fresh waters host an important part of global biodiversity but freshwater organisms are expected to be profoundly impacted by the predicted increase in water temperatures and discharge alterations associated with climate change. However, available models focus mostly on changes in air temperature, potentially failing to incorporate these impacts. Given that freshwater biodiversity is declining at an alarming and exponentially increasing rate, there is an urgent need to monitor the potential effects of climate change. Here, we modeled the distribution of freshwater macroinvertebrates across Europe for present and future conditions including recently available data on water temperature and discharge. We also included other environmental variables that might be relevant in understanding the current spatial distribution of invertebrates (e.g. geology, adjacent land use). We used 40 datasets of standardized monitoring protocols of freshwater invertebrates spanning 23 years. Then a score of the vulnerability to climate change was attributed to each taxon based on the models. Finally, the average community indicator calculated for all European rivers allowed us to identify relevant regions for monitoring climate change using a planning conservation tool.
How to cite: Crabot, J., Aroviita, J., Bayat, H., Boggero, A., Bonada, N., Datry, T., Domisch, S., Feio, M. J., Floury, M., Fornaroli, R., Hermoso, V., Jupke, J., Laini, A., Mykrä, H., Prat, N., Schaefer, R., Schmidt-Kloiber, A., and Cañedo-Argüelles, M.: Roadmap for identifying priority areas to monitor the effects of climate change on European rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6250, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6250, 2025.
Keywords: macrozoobenthos, functional biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, benthic-pelagic coupling, northwestern shelf of the Black Sea, modelling.
Benthic biodiversity is of global significance for the provision of ecosystem services and the mediation of global biogeochemical cycles. For instance, the macrozoobenthos plays a key role in marine carbon and nutrient cycling. Yet, current ocean biogeochemical models oversimplify or ignore life at the seafloor and its variability. The absence of detailed spatial distribution of the functions of the benthos, at large-scale (e.g., coastal and shelf scales), partly explains why benthic life characteristics are not taken into account in model formulation of benthic-pelagic exchanges. This lack of knowledge critically prevents our ability to predict the impact of climate change on the functioning of benthic life and its feedback on marine ecosystem and the biogeochemical budget of carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, phosphorus.
Here, we propose to scale up benthic biodiversity data from field sampling to the evaluation of ecosystem functions at large-scale (e.g., carbon sequestration, denitrification), relevant for ecosystem-based management. In our study, we include mechanistic and statistical models to map functional benthic biodiversity in relation to environmental drivers, and ultimately to incorporate its variability into current ocean model.
In more details, we compile macrozoobenthos occurrence from 210 sampling stations, covering constrained benthic habitats, over the northwestern shelf of the Black Sea. We use a functional approach of the biodiversity meaning that species are defined by their traits (e.g., dwelling depth and mobility) with an effect on ecosystem functioning. Then, species traits are upscaled at the community level by crossing species observations and their traits. From punctual values, we map continuous distribution of traits as a proxy of ecological processes (e.g., biomixing and biodeposition), precursors of ecosystem functions. We use a neural network to reconstruct maps of traits by linking them to environmental drivers, provided by a biogeochemical model, at high temporal and spatial resolution, run in an operational mode by Copernicus Marine Service (CMEMS). We use a combination of dozen biogeochemical (e.g., bottom oxygen and flux of organic carbon to the bottom) and physical drivers (e.g., bottom temperature and shear stress) as preliminary predictors of the distribution of traits. Then, we choose the best selection of predictors for our trait distribution models.
Our key findings show that bottom oxygen and stock of organic carbon are strong predictors for the distribution of traits at shelf-scale. Specifically, areas with high suspended materials and nutrients, such as near the Danube Delta, show deeper burrowing depths and greater mobility in benthic communities meaning potentially higher impact on sediment biomixing. In contrast, permanently hypoxic waters are characterized by very low sediment biomixing potential and very low benthic biodiversity.
Thanks to the maps of ecosystem functions, we adapt the parametrization of a current diagenetic model (e.g., depth of mixed layer, bioturbation coefficient) to incorporate the variability of the functional benthic biodiversity. A diagenetic model constrained by seafloor biodiversity, will constitute a significant step for the development of ocean models considering the impact of environmental changes on benthic life and its ability to deliver key marine ecosystem functions.
How to cite: Chevalier, S., Beauchard, O., Teaca, A., Begun, T., Vandenbulcke, L., Soetaert, K., and Grégoire, M.: From benthic functional biodiversity to the mapping of ecosystem functions: a case study over the Black Sea northwestern shelf, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12826, 2025.
The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) dominates global patterns of diversity, but the factors underlying the LDG remain elusive. Here, we use a unique global dataset to show that vascular plants on oceanic islands exhibit a weakened LDG and explore potential mechanisms to explain why. Our results show that traditional physical drivers of island biogeography – namely area and isolation – contribute to the difference between island and mainland diversity at a given latitude (i.e., the island species deficit), as smaller and more distant islands experience reduced colonization. However, plant species with mutualists are underrepresented on islands, and we find that this plant mutualism filter explains more variation in the island species deficit than abiotic factors. In particular, plant species that require animal pollinators or microbial mutualists like arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi contribute disproportionately to the island species deficit near the equator, with decreasing contributions with distance from the equator. As such, plant mutualist filters on species richness are particularly strong at low latitudes where mainland richness is highest, weakening the LDG of oceanic islands. These results provide empirical evidence that mutualisms, habitat heterogeneity, and dispersal are key to the maintenance of high tropical plant diversity and mediate the biogeographic patterns of plant diversity on Earth.
How to cite: Delavaux, C., Crowther, T., Bever, J., Weigelt, P., and Gora, E.: Mutualisms weaken the latitudinal diversity gradient among oceanic islands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6, 2025.
High-latitude terrestrial ecosystems are significantly affected by anthropogenic climate change. One of the most notable observed ecological responses is an expansion of shrubs across tundra ecosystems. These shifts in plant composition influence tundra carbon and energy balances, modify snow and soil dynamics, and have broader implications for regional and global climate systems. However, due to multiple interacting processes involving ecosystem CO2 and energy fluxes, permafrost, soil moisture, nutrient availability and interactions with snow cover, the net climate impact of shrubification, including its feedback potential and future trajectory, remain highly uncertain.
Land surface models can contribute to reducing those uncertainties and improving understanding of interactions, drivers and responses of tundra shrubification, but this requires an adequate representation of the involved ecosystems and processes in the models. However, the diversity of high-latitude ecosystems and processes is underrepresented in many global land surface models, including the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The current ORCHIDEE model version lacks key tundra plant types such as shrubs, limiting its ability to account for their role in high-latitude carbon and energy budgets, as well as to simulate tundra vegetation shifts and climate feedback processes, including shrubification. Instead, boreal trees are simulated in areas where shrubs dominate, resulting in a significant overestimation of aboveground biomass in high latitudes.
This work introduces two new plant functional types (PFTs) into the ORCHIDEE model—tall deciduous shrubs and evergreen dwarf shrubs - enhancing its representation of tundra vegetation. Their implementation is heavily based on observational data of shrub plant traits, growth form, biomass and CO2 fluxes across the tundra region, which are used for calibration of model parameters and validation. The successful introduction of two shrub plant functional types with realistic growth form, carbon allocation and carbon fluxes into the ORCHIDEE model considerably improves its representation of high latitude vegetation, including its estimate of carbon stored in tundra biomass. Furthermore, it lays the foundation to simulate observed and future shrubification processes, their interactions with snow and permafrost dynamics and their climate impacts and feedbacks, which will be an important contribution to improve understanding of drivers and impacts of tundra vegetation change.
How to cite: Kirchner, A., López-Blanco, E., Bastrikov, V., Luyssaert, S., Peylin, P., and Lansø, A. S.: Improving high latitude vegetation representation in the ORCHIDEE land surface model by introducing shrub PFTs, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7264, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7264, 2025.
Herbivory may offset climate change driven treeline expansion into the tundra. This study quantifies the effects of reindeer grazing on mountain birch recruitment and growth in the treeline ecotone in the Scandinavian sub-arctic in an area with contrasting grazing regimes for the past 20 years. We measured seedling density and the allometry of trees below, at, and above the treeline as well as vegetation composition along 20 transects crossing the treeline. Additionally, we investigated nutrient loading of soils and its effects on adult tree growth rate. Our results show that the treeline in the area grazed in winter may be responding to climate forcing by expanding diffusely into the tundra, while no treeline expansion was observed under the year-round grazing regime. High grazing pressure also reduced the numbers of tree basal shoots and the number of leaves below reindeer browsing height (<2 m). Additionally, we found a shift in ground layer vegetation composition in the area grazed year-round. Our results suggest that reindeer grazing at high density and when occurring during the growing season has the potential to stabilize the treeline locally, as well as significantly modify field layer vegetation composition in the treeline ecotone.
How to cite: Hagenberg, L., Pijcke, F., Horstkotte, T., Olofsson, J., and Siewert, M.: Reindeer grazing counterbalances the treeline expansion in the Scandinavian subarctic, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-419, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-419, 2025.
As the Northern latitudes of the planet warm, species are moving northward, a process that has been referred to as borealization. While this term has been mainly applied to the marine realm, similar patterns are described for terrestrial ecosystems but a common terminology is lacking. We define the term tundra borealization as shifts in species composition with climate change and land use change from the boreal forest into the tundra biome. Land use changes interact with climate change to lead to species and community reorganization in northern biomes, and borealization can have important consequences to food webs and ecosystem functions. There is growing evidence of borealization of plant and animal communities in tundra ecosystems and there are different methods that can be used to quantify borealization. Yet, metrics to assess borealization need to be standardized. Bringing together different definitions and lines of evidence for tundra borealization, we aim to emphasize this important ecological process and rapidly evolving area of research.
How to cite: Barrio, I. C. and the NordBorN team: Borealization of terrestrial ecosystems: patterns, drivers and consequences , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12056, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12056, 2025.
Posters on site: Thu, 1 May, 16:15–18:00 | Hall X1
Climate change has been shown to induce shifts in species distribution areas. These shifts are
driven not only by climate parameters, but also by short-term weather events, topography and other
non-climate factors. Furthermore, the estimation of magnitude of the climate change velocity requires
assumptions regarding its direction, since the two-dimensional velocity vector is not fully constrained
by temperature, which is a scalar. Furthermore, the definition of the magnitude and direction of the
climate velocity is not univocal; assumptions are needed, based on physical as well as mathematical
arguments. The well-known gradient-based definition of climate change [1] has limitations and in
particular local divergences [2]. This has recently prompted the introduction of an alternative method
that aims to maximise the regularity of the velocity field. This method is known as Monte-Carlo
iTerative Convergence Method (MATCH) [3].
The ecological relevance of these methods for specific purposes necessitates assessment. Here, we
asses them against observed shifts in species distribution ranges. The present study includes both ma-
rine and terrestrial species, including North American birds as determined by the Audubon Christmas
Bird Count and the NOAA fisheries survey along the North American coast. The centroid of each
species distribution range is determined at decade-long time ranges and over the entire survey period.
The shifting velocity of these centroids are computed with respect to the latitudinal, longitudinal
and vertical (respectively elevation and depth) directions. The isotherm shift is calculated using the
gradient-based and the MATCH methods for ground and sea-surface temperatures at each observation
location.
The results obtained demonstrate a significant positive correlation between latitudinal and ver-
tical (depth or height) shifts calculated with the MATCH approach, as evidenced by the analysis of
bird species in the western part of the North American continent and marine species. Conversely, no
correlation was found between longitudinal shifts and climate shifts calculated with either method.
These findings suggests that the MATCH approach generates velocity fields that are more relevant
ecologically. It may help to anticipate species range shifts and adapt conservation strategies accord-
ingly.
References
[1]. S. R. Loarie et al. Nature 462, 1052 (2009)
[2]. J. Rey, G. Rohat, M. Perroud, S. Goyette, J. Kasparian, Env. Res. Lett. 15, 034027 (2020)
[3]. I. Gaponenko, G. Rohat, S. Goyette, P. Paruch, J. Kasparian, Sci. Rep., 12, 2997, (2022)
How to cite: Goyette, S., Moinat, L., Kasparian, J., and Gaponenko, I.: Comparing ecological relevance of climate velocity indices, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2841, 2025.
The Arctic is experiencing unprecedented rates of warming. Arctic coastal environments are particularly vulnerable to the consequences: thawing of permafrost, decline of sea ice, and increased fluxes of sediment, organic carbon and nutrients across the land-ocean interface. These effects of global climate change drive significant transformations in coastal biogeochemistry and ecosystems, with severe implications for local communities. However, the responses of nearshore Arctic ecosystems to these changes, as well as involved mechanisms and driving forces, remain poorly constrained. The 'Fluxes from Land to Ocean: How Coastal Habitats in the Arctic Respond' (FLO CHAR) project focuses on the Mackenzie Delta region of the Beaufort Sea and asks the question: How does modern climate change alter land-ocean dynamics and the biodiversity of coastal ecosystems? A key objective is to explore biodiversity shifts and ecosystem functioning over the past millennium, to gain long-term perspectives of ecosystem dynamics in response to climate-driven changes. This is achieved through marine sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) analyses, utilizing state-of-the-art metabarcoding approaches and shotgun metagenomics. Establishing baseline data of coastal biodiversity in the Beaufort-Mackenzie region during the Late Holocene will allow to put modern biodiversity and ecosystem dynamics in a long-term context. Further, key diversity shifts will be assessed in the context of paleoenvironmental and -geochemical records to assess potential responses to climate change impacts, such as sea ice dynamics and land-ocean organic matter fluxes. The outcomes of the project will offer a critical framework for assessing future directions of Arctic coastal environments, and developing sustainable management and adaptation strategies.
How to cite: Brinkmann, I., O'Regan, M., Juhls, B., Overduin, P., Bröder, L., Haghipour, N., Vonk, J., Lattaud, J., Priest, T., Whalen, D., Matsuoka, A., Pellerin, A., Rudbäck, D., Rodriguez-Cuicas, M.-E., Schwarzkopf, K., Matzenbacher, B., Bossé-Demers, T., Fritz, M., and Heintzman, P. D.: Arctic biodiversity responses to climate change impacts in the Canadian Beaufort Sea , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12514, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12514, 2025.
The ongoing retreat of glaciers driven by climate change is predicted to significantly alter the ecological dynamics of glacier-fed streams, including changes in macroinvertebrate community composition. Previous studies suggest that increased water temperatures and altered channel stability due to glacial retreat initially decrease α-diversity due to elevated runoff, followed by an eventual rise in diversity and upstream shifts of species. Additionally, β-diversity is expected to decrease along the stream as highly adapted species near the glacial snout face changing conditions. However, few studies have confirmed these predictions yet, and most focus on temperate mountainous regions rather than Arctic environments.
To improve our understanding of these processes, an ongoing long-term research project investigates macroinvertebrates along the Vestari-Jökulsá (Iceland), an Arctic glacier-fed river draining the Satújökull glacier (Hofsjökull). In 1996 and 1997, Gíslason et al. (2002) studied longitudinal changes in macroinvertebrate communities and hydro-physical and hydro-chemical parameters in this river network to detect glacial influence as a function of distance from the glacier terminus. This dataset offers a unique opportunity to detect and compare the impact of current glacier retreat on macroinvertebrate communities, as well as hydro-physical and hydro-chemical parameters in this pro-glacial ecosystem over a long time period.
Data sampling will be conducted at 12 identical or comparable sites along the Vestari-Jökulsá and reference rivers in the area. Measured parameters include conductivity, temperature, discharge, sediment load, pH, macroinvertebrate diversity and density, nutrients, dissolved ions, chlorophyll α, and dissolved organic carbon content and composition through absorbance and fluorescence analyses. Hydrometric and hydro-chemical approaches will identify water sources (e.g., glacier meltwater, snowmelt, groundwater, rainfall, and stream water) at various spatial and temporal scales.
Fauna sampling was conducted in accordance with established methods in the ongoing long-term project. Near the glacier terminus, no recent invertebrate fauna was found. Approximately 83 individuals were identified at different life stages of insects (larvae, pupae, and imago). Most individuals belonged to Chironomidae (non-biting midges), with Diamesa spp. typically present. Diamesa species are specifically adapted cold-stenothermal kryal inhabitants. We also identified individuals from Simuliidae (black flies), Phoridae (humpbacked flies), and Scathophagidae (dung flies).
In the ongoing project, investigations will continue until the end of 2025 to obtain robust data for assessing long-term changes. This research aims to explore relationships between macroinvertebrate community diversity and environmental variables, identifying key drivers of ecological change. By evaluating Arctic systems' responses to glacier retreat, the study will offer critical insights into the resilience and adaptability of macroinvertebrate communities under rapid climatic shifts.
How to cite: Knauft, A. M., Reiss, M., Gíslason, G. M., Ólafsson, J. S., Hansen, I., Magnúsdóttir, R. Þ., and Chifflard, P.: Changes of macroinvertebrate in the glacial-fed river system Vestari-Jökulsá (Iceland) between 1996 and 2022, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18871, 2025.
Arctic tundra ecosystems are changing fast due to warming and more intense land use. In the SQUEEZE project, which focuses on identifying key Arctic regions for nature conservation, we are using a process-based vegetation model called LiBry (currently configured for mosses and lichens) to see how forest expansion and climate change might affect tundra biodiversity and functions in the future. In our initial simulations, we compared treeline conditions in 2020 and 2300 under RCP8.5, keeping other climate variables the same so we could look at forest invasion specifically. We found a drop in non-vascular plant biomass (from 0.65 Gt to 0.51 Gt), net primary productivity (from 0.26 Gt yr–1 to 0.19 Gt yr–1), and functional diversity. This suggests that increased tree cover may reduce future diversity and productivity of tundra plant communities, which might impact crucial processes such as permafrost protection.
As a next step, we plan to include shrubs, grasses, and other vascular plants in LiBry, using trait data from sources including the TRY database. By considering different stressors — forest invasion, climate change, grazing, and fire management — our work will enable more informed decisions about conservation across the Arctic. These simulations will ultimately support TundraProtect, a conservation tool aimed at prioritizing key areas for protection while addressing increasing economic pressures in the Arctic.
How to cite: Souto-Veiga, R., Porada, P., Heim, R. J., Hölzel, N., Lisovski, S., Herzschuh, U., Kruse, S., Haupt, S., Ludwig, A., and Feilhauer, H.: Forest expansion threatens Arctic tundra ecosystems: A process-based modeling perspective, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14430, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14430, 2025.
The forest-tundra ecotone (FTE) is the transition zone between the northern boreal forest and Arctic tundra. In response to climate warming, boreal forests may, as in the past, migrate northwards with potential consequent increases in tree growth, canopy density, and stand productivity. Or they may perhaps remain stationary or even retreat. Such outcomes may then influence energy balance as well as above and below ground carbon stocks and hence feedback to Earth’s climate system.
The Fennoscandian Arctic climate spans from predominantly oceanic in the west to continental in the east. Forest advance may not be uniform across this east-west transition. How climate and microclimate interact leading to advance, stationarity, or retreat of the boreal forest is being investigated. Approaches include a novel combination of remote sensing, terrestrial laser scanning plus microclimate data in combination with machine learning and ecological models is utilised to predict future forest extent under climate warming.
How to cite: Harding, M., Baxter, R., and Donoghue, D.: Climate change impacts on the Arctic tundra-forest ecotone – present and future, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-470, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-470, 2025.
Climate and land use changes are driving biome boundary shifts worldwide, with higher latitudes experiencing an expansion of boreal forest species into the tundra—a process known as borealization. This phenomenon includes treeline advancement, shrub expansion, changes in ecosystem structure and function, and the spread of non-native species. These shifts have significant implications for the functioning of Nordic terrestrial ecosystems and their capacity to deliver ecosystem services. The Nordic Borealization Network (NordBorN) is a five-year NordForsk-funded project that aims to address these challenges by fostering collaboration among six Nordic universities and three associated partners. NordBorN seeks to advance research excellence in terrestrial ecology by investigating the processes, drivers, and consequences of borealization, while also establishing a training hub for the next generation of Nordic researchers. By facilitating mobility, co-supervision of graduate students, and collaborative research initiatives, NordBorN will provide critical insights and capacity building to understand and manage the ecological and societal impacts of borealization in Nordic ecosystems.
How to cite: Verdonen, M. and Barrio, I. C. and the NordBorN team: NordBorN: a research and educational platform to understand borealization in the Nordic region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12001, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12001, 2025.
Forests, which contain a large share of the world’s terrestrial biodiversity, have and are still being converted for various land-use. Assessment of human impact on forest biodiversity requires knowledge of the baseline state – the biodiversity found in natural ecosystems. Primary forests, which have had little to no direct human impacts, may represent this baseline state. In this systematic literature review we assess the effect of forest management on the species richness of multiple taxonomic groups (epiphytic lichen, understory vascular plant, saproxylic beetle) at the European scale, while using primary forests as references. By reviewing European studies comparing species richness in primary and managed forests, we quantified effect sizes and summarized the comprehensiveness, representativeness, and scale of existing research. Our review identified a shortage of large-scale studies and large variability in study designs, limiting our ability to confidently compare and generalize findings across Europe. Hence, using the current European literature, it is challenging to assess the effect of forest management on species richness. To enable more robust analyses at this spatial scale, increased efforts to map primary forests and adopt standardized biodiversity assessment guidelines across Europe may be helpful.
How to cite: Volle, C., Blennow, K., and Ahlström, A.: Using Primary Forests as Baselines to Assess the Effect of Forest Management on Biodiversity: A Multi-Taxonomic European Perspective, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-322, 2025.
Modelling of the current and potential distribution of Reynoutria japonica Houtt. in the territories of 14 European countries, including Ukraine, has been conducted using the maximum entropy approach in the Maxent software package. The changes in the distribution area and ecological niche have been forecast based on two climate change scenarios up to 2100. Based on 19 170 records R. japonica of the database GBIF, it has been demonstrated that Europe is suitable for the establishment of this taxon, including mountainous areas. The distribution of species in Germany and Ukraine by biotopes depending on climate change has been studied. It has been found that the range will expand into northern zones by 13.6% or 17.0%, depending on the scenario. However, the contraction of the distribution area in the southern regions amounts to 26%, resulting in a slight contraction of the range (by 9-13%) by 2100 due to a reduction in the distribution areas in the southern regions of Europe, where maximum air temperatures will increase. The most important climatic variables affecting distribution are temperature variability throughout the year (seasonality) due to the significant difference in temperatures in summer and winter, the average temperature of the driest quarter, isothermality (the ratio of the mean annual temperature to the mean annual temperature range), the average temperature and precipitation of the warmest quarter, particularly the temperature variability throughout the year and precipitation in the warmest quarter, which are limiting factors for distribution. The minimum temperature of the growing season will affect the distribution in forecasts up to 2060, but this parameter does not have a limiting effect under current climate conditions. An assessment and forecast of the increasing harmful impact of Reynoutria taxa on ecosystems and biodiversity, considering climate changes and the impact of military actions in Ukraine, has been given. A general algorithm for controlling Reynoutria Houtt invasions have been developed, which can be used at the state and interstate levels. The risks of Reynoutria taxa invasions have been assessed, including specific threats to the territory of Ukraine, which will contribute to significant invasions of representatives of this genus in the future. The results are important for early detection, assessment and monitoring, management of the spread of the taxon in protected areas, and urban green infrastructure.
For the first time, a risk assessment and climate modelling of the distribution of R. japonica have been conducted in Europe and Ukraine and are important for threat assessment and effective ecosystem management and prevention of threats to the destruction or restructuring of biodiversity.
How to cite: Miroshnyk, N.: Climate modelling of the Reynoutria japonica Houtt. distribution for 14 European countries. Impact on biodiversity, the need for risk management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2751, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2751, 2025.
Alien plants are increasingly expanding from low to high elevations, threatening native communities in mountainous ecosystems. Understanding the mechanisms driving these invasions and their ecological impacts is essential for effective management and biodiversity conservation. Plant phenology, a sensitive indicator of environmental change, plays a pivotal role in facilitating plant colonization along environmental gradients. Although phenological niche differentiation between non-invasive and invasive plants has been observed, its impacts on invasion success and native community diversity remain underexplored. In this study, we conducted nine surveys from March to September across 35 plots along an altitudinal gradient in the Tianmu Mountain National Nature Reserve, Zhejiang Province. We recorded species composition, cover, and 10 functional traits to investigate temporal dynamics in community dissimilarity, ecological strategies, diversity and stability. Temporal patterns of non-invasive and invasive groups were compared across high and low elevations to infer the underlying community assembly processes. Our results revealed significant temporal shifts in community components, with diversity following an inverted U-shaped trajectory: non-invasive groups peaked in September, while invasive groups peaked in May. Both non-invasive and invasive groups showed decreasing species turnover over time, with higher community-weighted ruderal scores compared to competitive and stress-tolerant scores at both high and low elevations. Environmental variation between high and low elevations mediated relationships among community components, particularly diversity and stability. Distinct differences in community structure between non-invasive and invasive groups suggest divergent assembly mechanisms. Notably, invasive groups exhibited increasingly clustered phylogenetic patterns over time, decoupled from more divergent functional trait patterns. By integrating multidimensional community variables, this study provides a comprehensive view of annual dynamics and structural differences between non-invasive and invasive groups. It highlights the critical role of environmental change and phenological niche differentiation in shaping community dynamics, offering valuable insights into predicting community reorganization under future scenarios of climate change and alien plant invasion.
How to cite: Liu, R., Guo, K., Essl, F., and Guo, W.: Phenological impacts on the dynamics of non-invasive and invasive species communities in mountainous ecosystems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10369, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10369, 2025.
Agricultural production is a primary driver of degrading terrestrial biodiversity through crop cultivation and livestock grazing, which appropriates an extensive global land. These impacts may even go beyond the national territories and embody transboundary effects through international trade. This study utilizes the Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII) as a proxy to quantify terrestrial biodiversity loss associated with crop and livestock production. It allocates BII losses to individual crop and livestock commodities while assessing the spatial impacts of land conversion on biodiversity (measured in affected areas, km²), thereby enabling a more detailed biodiversity footprint analysis. The findings highlight that agricultural production induces approximately 2.6 million km2 of BII loss (1.9% global land), mostly from Asian and African continents, which are evenly dominated by crops and livestock. The crops and livestock vary by region, but cereal crops and meat cattle are the primary contributors to biodiversity loss worldwide. BII losses from crops have been steadily increasing, while those from livestock have been decreasing since the beginning of the last decade. The standardized BII loss allocated to total production reveals that the production in Central Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa, Western Asia, and Russia implies higher biodiversity loss in their productions than in other regions. The FAO international trade data between countries is incorporated to indicate that about 10.5% of the total BII losses are linked to international trade in 2020. Asia and Southern Africa are net importers of biodiversity losses, while North America, Australia and New Zealand, South America, and Eastern Europe are the net exporters of biodiversity losses through their crop and livestock commodities.
This study is the preliminary effort to analyze biodiversity loss embodied in international trade before it will be comprehensively tracked by multi-regional input-output analysis. The research findings highlight the significant global impact of agricultural production on terrestrial biodiversity, which emphasizes the need for targeted regional and international policies to mitigate biodiversity loss, particularly through sustainable agricultural practices and responsible trade frameworks.
How to cite: T. Nguyen, C., Vačkářová, D., and Weinzettel, J.: Global impacts of agricultural production on terrestrial biodiversity: Quantifying biodiversity losses and transboundary effects, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10691, 2025.
The growth of population and economic development led to the rapid development of corporation. However, being the benefactor of ecosystem service, directly or indirectly, if the corporations fail to acknowledge the inevitable impacts of business activities on the natural environment, it could lead to the ongoing degradation of natural ecosystems, which is detrimental to environmental sustainability. Therefore, it is essential for corporations to assess nature-related risks.
This study took Qisda Corporation as case, employed the framework of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) in tandem with the biodiversity questionnaire to locate, evaluate and assess risks in order to determine material risks faced by the corporation. These material risks were subsequently analyzed under different climate change scenarios introduced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The variations of risk severity were examined under the scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5.
The results indicated that Qisda would encounter the most severe climate adaptation challenges under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, while the SSP1-2.6 scenario represents the most optimistic outlook. In response, Qisda implemented biodiversity and no-deforestation policies as well as conducting biodiversity assessments. By examining corporate operational strategies, this study aims to inspire corporations to act proactively, integrate the industry value chain, and establish comprehensive measures and mechanisms to address climate change and preserve biodiversity. In addition, the results of this study can serve as an empirical foundation for corporate biodiversity risk management and provide reference material for sustainable development efforts.
Key Words: Sustainable development, Scenario analysis, Climate change, TNFD, Corporation risk management
How to cite: Liu, C.-L., Chan, H.-C., Liang, S.-H., and Liao, Y.-T.: Analyzing Operational Risks and Response Strategies of Qisda Corporation Using Nature-Related Financial Disclosures and Climate Change Scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14881, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14881, 2025.
Biodiversity loss has emerged as one of the most pressing challenges of our time, threatening the stability of ecosystems and their capacity to sustain life on Earth. The World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report 2024 underscores biodiversity loss as a critical risk to global economic resilience. Taiwan, commanding 30% of global semiconductor manufacturing capacity in 2024 and ranking as the world's second-largest producer, plays a pivotal role in the global supply chain. However, current research lacks a comprehensive understanding of how the industry's operations impact Taiwan's biodiversity across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems. This study analyzes the biodiversity footprint of Taiwan's semiconductor industry using corporate sustainability reports and governmental environmental statistics from 2020 to 2023. The research examines Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain, from IC design to wafer manufacturing and packaging services, through leading companies including TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), UMC (United Microelectronics Corporation), and ASE Group (Advanced Semiconductor Engineering). The study employs the ReCiPe methodology to quantify key biodiversity-related pressures such as habitat loss from land use transformation; freshwater ecosystem disruption from water consumption and wastewater discharge; and atmospheric deposition effects on sensitive ecosystems. The analysis provides a comprehensive view of how these pressures cumulatively affect Taiwan's terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity. As the first comprehensive biodiversity impact assessment of Taiwan's semiconductor industry, this research provides practical tools to evaluate and mitigate biodiversity risks, supports investor nature-related risk assessments, and establishes a scientific foundation for policy-driven biodiversity conservation. The assessment establishes quantitative linkages between industrial activities and biodiversity outcomes while providing strategic pathways toward nature-positive transformation in the semiconductor industry, advancing the critical balance between industrial development and ecosystem resilience.
How to cite: Hsu, C.-W. and Tung, C.-P.: The Biodiversity Footprint of Taiwan's Semiconductor Industry, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2993, 2025.
Posters virtual: Thu, 1 May, 14:00–15:45 | vPoster spot 2
EGU25-11483 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS29
Evaluating the Importance of Region-Specific Bioclimatic Datasets in Projecting the Future Distribution of Lissachatina fulica in Complex LandscapesThu, 01 May, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) vPoster spot 2 | vP2.7
The invasive alien, African giant snail, Lissachatina fulica, considered as a pest, poses a significant threat to ecosystems, human health and agriculture across tropical and subtropical regions. Therefore, in order to address the challenge posed by the presence of this animal outside its original habitat it is essential to to understand its current and potential future distribution. Thus, this study, which highlights the critical role of regional bioclimatic datasets in improving the predictive accuracy of species distribution models (SDMs) particularly for invasive species in ecosystems with complex orography or climate, takes advantage of global and regional bioclimatic datasets to model the future distribution of L. fulica in the Canary Islands, emphasizing the influence of the archipelago’s complex orography and unique microclimates.
Our approach integrates two distinct datasets as input of the SDM Maxent. First, we used the global distribution of L. fulica from GBif and a list of bioindicators taken from the WorldClim and Chelsa datasets to train the model, which allowed us to capture the environmental niche of the species under various climatic conditions. We then applied the BICI-ULL dataset, a high-resolution bioclimatic dataset specifically developed for the Canary Islands that accounts for the intricate topography and varied microclimates of the archipelago, providing an unprecedented resolution for regional analyses. This dataset allows us to perform our projections in two different future periods, mid- (2041-2060) and end-of-century (2081-2100) and under two scenarios for greenhouse gas concentration, namely the CMIP5 representative concentration pathway 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).
The results indicate that while the current distribution of L. fulica in the Canary Islands is limited to the wetter areas of the archipelago, namely western islands such as La Palma and El Hierro and the north of Tenerife, future projections under the CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios reveal notable changes. For both temporal periods and driven by warming temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, habitat suitability shows a greater shrinkage remaining only a small favorable area in the northern part of La Palma. However, future projections performed with the global datasets show opposite results, that is, a large number of high-suitability zones throughout the entire archipelago in which the probability of the presence of L. fulica is very high.
The use of BICI-ULL allowed us to identify future patterns in the high-suitability zones that would have been overestimated using global datasets. This underscores the need of incorporating region-specific data when modeling species distributions in topographically complex areas such as oceanic islands. The findings highlight the importance of developing regional datasets, like BICI-ULL, that can capture microclimatic variability. Besides, this approach serves as a model for addressing similar challenges in other biodiversity-rich but vulnerable regions, contributing to the broader understanding of invasive species dynamics.
How to cite: Barragan, R., Sosa-Guillén, P., Tondreau, P. S., Pérez, J. C., Expósito, F. J., and Díaz, J. P.: Evaluating the Importance of Region-Specific Bioclimatic Datasets in Projecting the Future Distribution of Lissachatina fulica in Complex Landscapes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11483, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11483, 2025.
Posters virtual: Fri, 2 May, 14:00–15:45 | vPoster spot 2
EGU25-18096 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS30
Modeling the Future of Laurisilva Forests: Integrating Regional and Global Bioclimatic Datasets for Projections Beyond the Canary IslandsFri, 02 May, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) vPoster spot 2 | vP2.17
The laurel forest (laurisilva) represents a unique and biodiverse ecosystem currently confined to subtropical regions with specific climatic conditions. In the Canary Islands, these laurisilva forests, constrained to areas with high humidity and stable temperatures as the northern slopes of Tenerife, La Gomera, and La Palma, are of particular ecological importance hosting numerous endemic species. However, climate change poses a significant threat to these fragile habitats, with potential shifts in their distribution at both regional and global scales with new regions emerging as potential refuges for laurisilva forests. The main scope of this study is to explore the current distribution of laurisilva forests in the Canary Islands and projects to the future under different climate change scenarios for mid-century and end-century, its potential range in other archipelagos of Macaronesia and selected regions worldwide with similar climatic conditions.
Using Maxent as the primary modeling tool, we first trained the model by means of high-resolution bioclimatic indicators specifically designed for the Canary Islands, the so-called BICI-ULL dataset. This dataset was generated taking into account the intricate topography and diverse microclimatic patterns of the archipelago, providing a robust framework to delineate the current distribution of laurisilva. Once the model was trained, we used the global bioindicators from WorldClim and Chelsa to project the potential future distribution of laurisilva.
Thus, this methodology based on BICI-ULL allowed us to develop a detailed understanding of laurisilva distribution in the Canary Islands, while WorldClim and Chelsa facilitated the extrapolation of projections to broader geographic scales offering a framework for identifying potential refugia and new habitats for conservation planning of the laurisilva forests. These findings underline the importance of combining regional expertise with global datasets to inform conservation strategies for biodiverse but threatened ecosystems like laurisilva.
How to cite: Sosa-Guillén, P., Simon Tondreau, P., Barragán, R., González, A., Pérez, J. C., Expósito, F. J., and Díaz, J. P.: Modeling the Future of Laurisilva Forests: Integrating Regional and Global Bioclimatic Datasets for Projections Beyond the Canary Islands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18096, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18096, 2025.
