Terrestrial ecosystems include forests, rangelands, croplands, steppes, agroforestry systems, World residential areas and other lands. Interdisciplinary research has assessed land use transitions with unprecedented progress in recent times. Social and economic development, population growth, urbanization and globalization affect land conversion on all continents. The on-going climate change and the rise of green house gases in the atmosphere pose challenges to scientific research. Advances of remotes sensing intermingled with national statistics and citizen science assist in updating our perceptions on global changes in terrestrial ecosystems.
This session invites scientists from different disciplines to attend interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary dialogues on drivers affecting the sinks and sources of global terrestrial carbon. Global overviews based on different methodologies are invited as well as case studies at continental, national and regional levels. Presentations should address changes in global terrestrial ecosystems in the 20th and 21st century.
In 2023, the CO2 growth rate was 3.37 ± 0.11 ppm at Mauna Loa, 86% above the previous year, and hitting a record high since observations began in 1958[1], while global fossil fuel CO2 emissions only increased by 0.6 ± 0.5%[2,3]. This implies an unprecedented weakening of land and ocean sinks, and raises the question of where and why this reduction happened. Here we show a global net land CO2 sink of 0.44 ± 0.21 GtC yr-1, the weakest since 2003. We used dynamic global vegetation models, satellites fire emissions, an atmospheric inversion based on OCO-2 measurements, and emulators of ocean biogeochemical and data driven models to deliver a fast-track carbon budget in 2023. Those models ensured consistency with previous carbon budgets[2]. Regional flux anomalies from 2015-2022 are consistent between top-down and bottom-up approaches, with the largest abnormal carbon loss in the Amazon during the drought in the second half of 2023 (0.31 ± 0.19 GtC yr-1), extreme fire emissions of 0.58 ± 0.10 GtC yr-1 in Canada and a loss in South-East Asia (0.13± 0.12 GtC yr-1). Since 2015, land CO2 uptake north of 20°N declined by half to 1.13 ± 0.24 GtC yr-1 in 2023. Meanwhile, the tropics recovered from the 2015-16 El Niño carbon loss, gained carbon during the La Niña years (2020-2023), then switched to a carbon loss during the 2023 El Niño (0.56 ± 0.23 GtC yr-1). The ocean sink was stronger than normal in the equatorial eastern Pacific due to reduced upwelling from La Niña's retreat in early 2023 and the development of El Niño later[4]. Land regions exposed to extreme heat in 2023 contributed a gross carbon loss of 1.73 GtC yr-1, indicating that record warming in 2023 had a strong negative impact on the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to mitigate climate change. The presentation wil also cover the new budget of the year 2024
How to cite: Ciais, P., Ke, P., Sitch, S., Chevallier, F., and Liu, Z.: Low latency carbon budget analysis reveals a large decline of the land carbon sink in 2023 and 2024, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-51, 2025.
Russia, the largest country on Earth, spans 17.1 million km² and contains 21% of the world’s forests. Between 1975 and 2020, the country experienced warming at a rate 2.5 times the global average, accompanied by moderate but uneven increases in precipitation. All natural zones of the northern hemisphere are represented within Russia’s borders, and two-thirds of its territory is underlain by permafrost. This permafrost contains over 500 Pg of carbon within the upper 3 meters, including vast stores of methane and hydrates in northern Pleistocene “yedoma” deposits, presenting a potential risk of a "methane bomb" under intensive warming. Climate variability has increased since the mid-1970s, driving changes in natural disturbance regimes, particularly in forests. Additionally, social and economic upheavals following the October Revolution (1917) and the collapse of the Soviet Union (1992) have hindered Russia’s transition to sustainable forest management.
Comprehensive land-cover data for Russia have been available since 1960, coinciding with the country’s first forest inventory. Since the 1980s, the widespread use of remote sensing has accelerated the accumulation of information about ecosystem functioning, particularly regarding forests and their biospheric roles. Extensive databases, models, and maps have been developed to improve understanding of carbon budgets. Over the past 30 years, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis has advanced a methodology for comprehensive and verifiable carbon accounting (CVCA) for Russia, based on principles of applied systems analysis. This approach integrates diverse datasets—including ground-based and remote sensing data—on terrestrial ecosystems, climate, soils, landscapes, management, and disturbances. The Integrated Land Information System (ILIS), which incorporates a Hybrid Land Cover (HLC) GIS with a 150-meter resolution, serves as the spatial foundation for this methodology. The ILIS-HLC system has resolved key informational and methodological challenges in carbon accounting for Russian forests and enabled the integration of bottom-up (landscape-ecosystem) and top-down (atmospheric inversion) approaches within the CVCA framework.
This presentation examines the primary drivers influencing the carbon budget of Russia’s terrestrial ecosystems from 1960 to 2020, with a focus on forests. Key topics include: (1) The impacts of climate change on ecosystem sustainability and productivity. (2) The dynamics of natural and anthropogenic disturbances, particularly wildfires and biogenic factors. (3) The role of management in transitioning Russian forests toward sustainable forest management practices.
The analysis shows that Russia’s terrestrial ecosystems have acted as a net carbon sink of 500–600 Tg C/year over the past three decades, largely due to forest ecosystems, though this sink decreased by the late 2010s. The presentation also discusses uncertainties within the CVCA framework and highlights areas requiring further research and refinement.
How to cite: Shvidenko, A., Schepaschenko, D., and Kraxner, F.: Drivers Affecting the Carbon Budget of Russian Terrestrial Ecosystems (1960–2020): Climate Change, Management, and Disturbances, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13452, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13452, 2025.
Limiting climate warming to 1.5 °C requires reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR). While various CDR strategies have been explored to achieve global net-zero GHG emissions and account for legacy emissions, additional exploration is warranted to examine more durable, scalable, and sustainable approaches to achieve for no or limited overshoot of 1.5°C warming. Here we show that preserving woody debris in managed forests can remove gigatons (Gt) of CO2 from the atmosphere sustainably. Woody debris is produced from logging, sawmill, and abandoned woody products, and can be preserved in deep soil to lengthen its residence time (a measure of durability) by thousands of years. Preserving the yearly produced woody debris in managed forests has the capacity to remove 769-937 Gt CO2 from the atmosphere cumulatively from 2025 to 2100 if its residence time is lengthened for 100-2,000 years and 5% CO2 emissions is reduced for preservation operation. This translates to a reduction in global temperatures between 0.35 - 0.42°C. Given the large potential, relatively low cost and long durability, future efforts should be focused on establishing large-scale demonstration projects for this technology in a variety of contexts, with rigorous monitoring of CDR, its co-benefits and side-effects.
How to cite: Luo, Y.: Preserving woody debris in managed forests can remove gigatons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4859, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4859, 2025.
With the increasing concern about the anthropogenic emissions lead a globally changing climate, this is a study on the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) being absorbed by plants and ecosystems in India, focusing on a process called Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). About 30% of CO2 emissions caused by human activity are absorbed by forests and other land areas. This research explores how regional land-use changes, climate, and weather conditions affect its GPP. The study uses FLUXCOM and climate model simulation from the recent past to the future to analyze both past and future CO2 absorption trends in India, a country especially vulnerable to climate change. Recent data show that the ability of plants in India to absorb atmospheric CO2 in the form of primary productivity (GPP) has increased. Recent past data from the FLUXCOM experiment shows the regional disparity in selected locations of India, with the Western Ghats region showing the highest increase in GPP in the recent past. While the historical data of CMIP models show an annual GPP growth of 2.37 gC per m² per year, the future projections under high emissions scenarios (SSP585 of CMIP6) suggest this could rise to about 6 gC per m² per year. However, this trend is not uniform across India. Areas like the Northeast, Indo-Gangetic Plains, and Western Ghats are seeing the most significant increases, while some southern regions show little or no growth in the future.
The study also looks at the changes in land use—such as forest loss or crop expansion concerning the spatial distribution of the GPP from the climate model simulations. It is seen that the climate models predict that more rainfall could further impact GPP trends. This research helps improve our understanding of how vulnerable regions like India's ecosystems are responding to climate change, and it emphasizes the need to use real-world data to make climate models more accurate for future predictions.
How to cite: Gupta, S. and Tiwari, Y. K.: A Study on India’s Biospheric Carbon Sink Potential with Changing Climate, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18195, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18195, 2025.
Industrialization has not only resulted in surging emissions from fossil energy combustion, it has also fundamentally altered the role of land use in greenhouse gas budgets. Most notably, a shift from deforestation to reforestation has coincided with industrialization in many countries of the world, while agricultural intensification has led to increasing agricultural emissions, but declining emissions intensity of agricultural products. Using Austria, a small European industrialized country as an example, and adopting a long-term socio-ecological perspective covering the period 1830-2020, this contribution presents how industrialization has shaped the climate impact of land use, and how it affected biomass production in forestry and agriculture. It explores the socio-political context and drivers of land-use change based on qualitative and quantitative analyses, and discusses challenges and opportunities for land-based climate-change mitigation today.
How to cite: Gingrich, S., Le Noë, J., Schmid, M., Erb, K., and Lauk, C.: Industrialization and the climate impact of land systems: the case of Austria, 1830-2020, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11842, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11842, 2025.
The Pearl River Delta (PRD) is one of China's most ecologically diverse regions, characterized by extensive aquaculture activities, particularly in fish ponds. These aquaculture systems play a vital role in the region's carbon cycling; however, their contribution to the overall carbon balance remains poorly quantified. This study aimed to estimate phytoplankton carbon concentration in fishponds within the PRD using Sentinel-3's Ocean and Land Color Instrument (OLCI) data. To enhance the accuracy of reflectance values, atmospheric correction was performed using the SeaDas software, thereby ensuring more reliable data for subsequent carbon retrieval. An algorithm based on key OLCI bands (Oa08, Oa09, and Oa017) was applied to predict phytoplankton carbon concentration from 2016 to 2024.
The study investigated spatiotemporal variations in phytoplankton carbon contributions to the regional carbon cycle. Preliminary results revealed notable differences in phytoplankton carbon concentration across different fishponds, with higher concentrations observed in regions with elevated chlorophyll-a levels. In particular, the phytoplankton carbon concentration is substantially higher in summer than in winter, a pattern that could drive local carbon flux variations and influence regional carbon sequestration dynamics, especially during algal bloom events.
This study underscored the potential of satellites, particularly Sentinel-3 OLCI, for estimating carbon fluxes in aquaculture areas. The findings provided valuable insights into the carbon cycle dynamics of the PRD and enhanced our understanding of carbon sequestration in small fishpond ecosystems. These results are valuable for improving local environmental management practices, and applicable for future study on carbon dynamics in similar aquaculture systems, and can.
How to cite: Lin, R.: Retrieval of Phytoplankton Carbon Concentration in Fishponds in the Pearl River Delta Using Sentinel-3 OLCI imagery, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1906, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1906, 2025.
Agroforestry is considered as a land-use practice that sequesters carbon or reduces emissions without compromising food production or biodiversity. However, current research relies on field site observations or coarse tree canopy cover maps, resulting in biases in estimating the carbon benefits from agroforestry on a large scale. Here, we produced an agroforestry map at 100 m resolution for 2019, using high-resolution tree canopy cover data, accounting for spatial arrangements of tree interactions within the agroforestry land. We mapped the agroforestry lands with scattered and linear trees on cropland and validated the mapping results against the ground-based sites collected from literature and Google Earth maps. The overall accuracy and precision of the agroforestry map are 79.96% and 70.08%, respectively. By combining our agroforestry map and cropland extent data, we found that agroforestry provides a carbon benefit of 0.8 ± 0.1 Mg C ha-1 compared to near-monocultures, with African agroforestry stored an additional 59.38 Tg C across 71.14 million hectares.
How to cite: Sun, M., Li, W., Brandt, M., and Ciais, P.: Estimating the carbon benefits of agroforestry lands in Africa, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4692, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4692, 2025.
Tropical rainforests are an important sink of carbon (C). However, the ability of tropical rainforests to remove C from the atmosphere is constrained by nutrient availability. Specifically, phosphorus (P) has been identified as a limiting nutrient for tropical forest growth. One potential source of incoming P fluxes in tropical rainforests is the deposition of particles from distant wildfires and prescribed fires. Savannah and deforestation fires release substantial amounts of particles that can be transported towards the equator by trade winds and, subsequently, be deposited into tropical rainforests.
In this study, we aim to quantify the impact of distant fire-emitted nutrients on the spatial variability of gross primary productivity (GPP) of the Amazon rainforests. To achieve this, we used data on black carbon deposition from MERRA-2, as a proxy for the deposition of fire-emitted nutrients, and an ensemble of solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) datasets, as a proxy for GPP. We fitted a Random Forest regression to predict the spatial variability in SIF using black carbon deposition along with climate and soil variables as input. Subsequently, we applied SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and other variable importance techniques to evaluate the relevance of black carbon deposition in predicting the spatial variability in SIF.
Our results show that trade winds transport fire emissions from the Amazon arc-of-deforestation towards the southern part of the Amazon rainforest, creating a north-south gradient in nutrient deposition across the undisturbed rainforest. Black carbon deposition emerged as the most relevant predictor of SIF, accounting for 21.9% of the total variable contributions. In addition, the spatial distribution of SHAP values revealed that the southern Amazon experiences the most substantial positive effect of black carbon deposition on SIF. These findings confirm earlier results from field measurements conducted in a tropical lowland forest in Africa and generalize the impact of distant savannah and deforestation fires on gross primary productivity across the Amazon rainforest. Our findings indicate that distant fire emissions can alleviate nutrient limitations in undisturbed tropical forests, with potential implications for global carbon budgets.
How to cite: Descals, A., Janssens, I., and Peñuelas, J.: Variability in Amazon rainforest gross primary productivity co-determined by fire emissions from the arc of deforestation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6043, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6043, 2025.
Greenhouse gas reduction and carbon sequestration are crucial strategies for addressing climate change. However, extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and typhoons trigger soil erosion and landslides that severely impact the environment. These events not only release substantial greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and water bodies through large-scale collapses but also significantly delay ecosystem recovery and carbon sequestration processes. As climate change intensifies, the potential benefits of soil and water conservation engineering in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing carbon sinks have gained increasing attention. Check dams, as one of the key engineering structures for stabilizing sediment and preventing slope disasters, play a vital role in preventing large-scale landslides. While research on sediment stabilization mechanisms of check dams is well-established, studies on their organic carbon sequestration benefits remain limited. In particular, the temporal dynamics of carbon mechanisms are not well understood, making it difficult to provide solid scientific evidence for the carbon sequestration benefits of check dams.
This study uses precipitation events as a baseline to investigate the effects of check dam engineering on soil carbon sequestration and explores the mechanisms of carbon flow and sequestration from watershed soil erosion to sediment deposition within check dams. The research methodology involves selecting watersheds with fragile geology susceptible to erosion for sample collection and analysis. By examining changes in sediment organic carbon content before and after precipitation events, we analyze the transformation and sequestration mechanisms of organic carbon during erosion and deposition processes. Furthermore, through precipitation event simulations, we quantify soil erosion rates in watersheds and assess carbon loss and retention during sediment deposition in check dams to establish a simple and feasible method for sampling and carbon sequestration calculation.
The study aims to reveal the carbon sequestration benefits of check dams during sediment stabilization processes and, through baseline establishment, develop an economical and scientific method for estimating carbon sequestration capacity. This method can be applied to large-scale assessments of carbon sequestration benefits of check dam projects across different regions, providing new scientific perspectives and empirical evidence for the role of soil and water conservation engineering in climate change mitigation. This research not only helps deepen our understanding of the carbon sequestration benefits of check dams but also provides crucial references for policy formulation and engineering planning, further promoting the integration and implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.
Keywords: Check dam, Carbon sequestration, Watershed management, Soil erosion
How to cite: Chen, P.-H., Ho, H.-C., and Lee, H.-Y.: Quantifying the Carbon Sequestration Potential of Check Dams: A Baseline Study Using Precipitation Events, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6456, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6456, 2025.
Soil and water loss caused by debris flows and landslides represents a common hazard in mountainous regions. Check dams, as crucial disaster prevention structures, have recently been recognized for their potential carbon sequestration benefits beyond their primary disaster mitigation function. Traditionally, these structures reduce the intensity of debris flows and landslides by promoting sediment deposition and mitigating upstream erosion. Research indicates that check dam areas demonstrate significant potential for soil organic carbon sequestration, offering a new perspective on climate change mitigation, even after reaching their sediment retention capacity while continuing to stabilize riverbeds and slopes.
Taiwan has implemented diverse check dam designs, ranging from traditional closed concrete structures to specialized types such as slit dams, notched dams, and steel pipe dams. While these designs are carefully selected based on topographical conditions, hydrological characteristics, and engineering requirements, systematic research on how different check dam types influence soil organic carbon sequestration remains limited. This study aims to develop a rapid assessment framework for evaluating carbon storage potential across various check dam designs. Our methodology encompasses three key components: first, classifying check dams based on their scale, material properties, structural types, and spatial configuration; second, employing remote sensing techniques and satellite imagery analysis to evaluate sedimentation characteristics of different check dam types; and finally, developing a universal carbon storage assessment model that integrates land use patterns and soil classification data.
To ensure model accuracy and reliability, we will conduct field surveys and sampling analyses for validation. This research seeks to provide reference guidelines for carbon sequestration benefit assessment in future check dam planning and design. Beyond addressing current literature gaps, our findings will offer new perspectives on the multiple benefits evaluation of soil and water conservation engineering in mountainous regions.
Keywords: Check dam types, Carbon sequestration, Remote sensing, Sediment retention
How to cite: Xu, Y.-H. and Ho, H.-C.: Development of a Rapid Assessment Framework for Carbon Sequestration Potential in Various Check Dam Designs: A Case Study from Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6775, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6775, 2025.
Afforestation connects isolated forests into larger contiguous forests, reducing forest fragmentation. This process restores previously fragmented edge areas by transforming edge forests into interior forests (termed transformed forests). However, the extra climate benefits of these transformed forests beyond afforestation itself remain unclear. Here, we estimate the carbon gain and the biophysical effects of the transformed forests by afforestation in China using multiple high-resolution remote sensing data. Planted forests area (89.6 M ha) accounts for 35.5% of the total forest area in China in 2015, transforming 51.8 M ha edge forests into interior forests. It increases aboveground biomass carbon (AGC) by 0.3~0.4 Pg C in the transformed forests, compared to the AGC increase of 2.1~2.3 Pg C in the planted forests. These transformed forests also induce a biophysical cooling effect of -0.020±0.015 °C. Combining the biogeochemical effects from increased AGC and the biophysical effects, the transformed forests provide an overall cooling effect of -0.026 °C, representing an extra 25.2% of the direct climate benefits of afforestation. Our study reveals the previously ignored extra climate benefits resulting from reduced forest fragmentation alongside afforestation, offering new perspectives on mitigating climate warming through afforestation.
How to cite: meng, N. and li, W.: Previously ignored climate benefits from afforestation in China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7673, 2025.
Some 20 years ago, The Forest Identity framework was introduced to describe systematic changes to national forest stock (i.e., carbon) as a function of rates of change to forest area, density, and biomass over 1990-2005. Observations noted that most wealthier countries were increasing forest density, as well as forest area to a lesser degree, while most poorer countries were losing forest area without change to forest density. In the context of global forest change, this framework rightfully raised the profile of forest management, complementing the Forest Transition model focused instead on agriculture, human settlement, and forest expansion into non-forest lands. Since the 1990s and early 2000s, forest management and stocks have likely shifted in many poorer, typically tropical regions, altering trends to forest density relative to forest area: tree plantations have matured but also expanded, including as a proportion of total forest gains; net natural afforestation has occurred in certain regions, typically alongside forest conversion; atmospheric carbon fertilization has possibly enhanced forest density generally; and primary forest loss has often trended upward, including due to forestry in some countries (e.g., India). At the same time, forest-change scholars have recognized, if begrudgingly, that conjoint trends to forest density, biomass, and area define more a varied, and more meaningful, array of nominal ‘forest transitions’ compared to the classical forest-transition model. In this context, we revisit the Forest Identity framework and update its summarization of global forest change. We reveal systematic shifts to the rates of change to forest density, biomass, and area between 1990-2005 and 2005-2020 for all countries globally. Distinct couplings of density-area trends are identified, defining groups of countries with common trajectories of forest-stock change. The primary driver(s) of shifts to these trajectories are explored to summarize general underpinnings of current forest (stock) change globally.
How to cite: Sloan, S.: The Forest Identity Redux: Systematic Changes to National Forest Carbon Stocks Globally, 1990-2020, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8106, 2025.
Forests consist of trees, as the FAO defines: “Land spanning more than 0.5 hectares with trees higher than 5 meters and a canopy cover of more than 10 percent, or trees able to reach these thresholds in situ. It does not include land that is predominantly under agricultural or urban land use”. The carbon density of forest vegetation varies by two orders of magnitude spatially between regions. It is important to analyze spatial and temporal trends in carbon density to assess the global or regional rates of change of the carbon sink of forested vegetation.
Here we show, how the number of tree stems and the size of an average tree have changed in Finland since the 1920´s. It turns out that the number of both small and large trees has increased in nearly all sub-regions in Finland. The change has been most pronounced for largest trees in southern boreal forests.
We discuss ecological and management changes driving the number vs. the average size of trees, asking whether a change of tree size is likely to sustain longer than change in the number of tree stems.
How to cite: Kauppi, P. and Nöjd, P.: Decomposing forest carbon density: Stem number vs. tree size, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10737, 2025.
Drained peatlands are responsible for 5.6% of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions, yet the conventional algorithms for quantifying CO2 fluxes are not well-calibrated and validated within these ecosystems. In the UK, drained peatlands serve as key agricultural areas but account for approximately 24% of the country’s peatland emissions. Reducing emissions from agriculturally drained peatlands is a vital component of the UK’s net zero strategy, and monitoring CO2 dynamics in these ecosystems is essential for meeting net zero targets by 2050. To support these efforts, we evaluate the potential of remote sensing data integrated with machine learning methods to upscale carbon fluxes (GEP, TER, and NEE) measured by eddy covariance flux towers in agriculturally-drained peatlands of the Fenland, UK, for the first time. We used moderate-resolution data from Landsat and Sentinel 2 in combination with meteorological parameters and soil carbon data to train a Random Forest model capable of predicting CO2 fluxes at the field scale. The model showed an overall accuracy of 77\%, with an R2 of 0.81 and RMSE of 2.23 kgCO2/m2/yr for predicting partitioned fluxes. NEE, calculated as the difference between modeled GEP and TER achieved an R2 of 0.78 and RMSE of 1.61 kgCO2/m2/yr. The model showed the highest predictive accuracy in managed grasslands and showed weaker performance in the arable site on deep peat and specific crop types (e.g., sugar beet and leek). On an unseen eddy covariance site, the model effectively captured the seasonal pattern of NEE but showed deviations from observed seasonal averages in winters (+0.75 kgCO2/m2/yr) and spring (+1.42 kgCO2/m2/yr). We demonstrate the applicability of the model by upscaling field-level annual and seasonal fluxes across the Fenland, where the average NEE in 2023 showed high spatial variability (ranging from 3.79 to -9.2 kgCO2/m2). This work enables the creation of a baseline NEE scenario for any field of interest within lowland peatlands of the UK, which can be monitored over time to evaluate the efficacy of restoration efforts, such as partial or complete rewetting of grasslands, as well as the impact of changes in management practices. Overall, this assessment establishes a foundation for advancing CO2 flux modeling in drained peatlands and demonstrates the potential of remote sensing and machine learning approaches to support greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation efforts in the UK’s peatland ecosystems.
How to cite: Khan, A., Ali, M., Kaduk, J., and Balzter, H.: Upscaling CO2 fluxes from the UK's agriculturally drained peatlands using Remote Sensing and Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13456, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13456, 2025.
planetary boundaries and earth system changes, especially focusing on biosphere integrity, land system change, and biogeochemical flows. In addition, many terms were observed, such as water, climate, emission, pollution, resource, carbon, and cycle, in many global research on planetary boundaries and Earth System Boundaries. Understanding these changes and implementing the resilience concept into the local level study was very important, so this study firstly aims to understand carbon budget changes and their impacts on the resilience system in South Korea. Therefore, this study utilized the biome-BGC process-based model for net primary productivity (NPP) estimation and the Ko-G-Dynamics model for understanding the carbon budget. Overall NPP was estimated at 4.66 Mg C ha-1 in pine tree stands and 6.21 Mg C ha-1 in oak tree stands during 2011-2100. When we spit the time changes, the NPP values of pine and oak tree stands were 4.14 and 5.07 Mg C ha-1 during 2011-2040, and it slightly increased during 2041-2070 to 4.78 and 6.50 Mg C ha-1. However, NPP values were changed to 0.50 Mg C ha-1in pine tree stands, but 7.49 Mg C ha-1in oak tree stands during 2071-2100. In addition, the decrease of the pine trees was also observed in the Ko-G-Dynamics modeling. This indicates that the threshold of ecosystem resilience will be observed in 2070. The current global warming will severely affect pine trees although there are some fertilizer effects and increasing stand site index in South Korea like the case of the oak trees. Therefore, we need to keep track of the changes and to link with these changes with resilience system understanding to handle ecological sustainability.
How to cite: Song, C., Kim, W., Kim, M., Lim, C.-H., Choi, H.-A., and Lee, W.-K.: Changes in ecosystem carbon budget and resilience system in South Korea, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14754, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14754, 2025.
