Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Generation, Energy Demand, and GHG Emissions in the Beas River Basin

Energy resources are necessary for the survival and advancement of human civilization. But since the industrial revolution, using too many fossil fuels has caused greenhouse gas (GHG) levels in the atmosphere to keep rising. Hydropower is a flexible and low-carbon way to make electricity, but climate change is likely to affect hydropower systems by changing hydrologic regimes. This study examines the effects of climate change on hydropower production and electricity consumption in the Beas River Basin, India. To assess the state's current hydropower generation capacity and identify future or upcoming government-supported projects, data was collected from the State Directorate of Energy (DoE). According to data obtained from the Directorate of Energy, the state has identified 983 hydropower projects with a total potential capacity of 22,855 MW. However, as of now, only 181 projects have been commissioned, contributing approximately 11,285 MW power generation. This indicates that a significant portion of the hydropower potential more than 75%, remains untapped. The remaining projects are either under construction, in planning stages or awaiting approval. Future projections of hydropower generation are developed using climate projections from the ensemble mean of eleven GCMs to simultaneously drive a physics based hydrological model (SWAT+) and a statistically based hydropower model for estimating the future power generation of major hydropower plants in the basin, along with an electricity demand model that accounts for various factors. The results indicate that, under climate change, projected hydropower generation in the Beas River Basin is expected to increase substantially exceeding future electricity demand and has the potential to supply surplus energy to other regions. This high supply combined with lower demand is projected to reduce GHG emissions significantly, decreasing MMT CO₂e per year within a few years.