Integrating Political Futures in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: An Expert Elicitation Approach

This paper introduces a structured expert elicitation to develop narrative descriptions of political futures for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The SSPs are scenarios widely used to explore how alternative futures affect the challenges for mitigation and adaptation. Despite the central role of political dimensions (e.g. institutional inclusiveness, institutional effectiveness, and peace) in shaping development trajectories and the feasibility of climate action, the SSPs do not systematically incorporate political features. Political development is often non-linear and relationships between political dimensions and climate action are contested. Expert elicitation provides a transparent approach to link available empirical evidence as well as evaluate the degree of confidence and assess the conditionality of the relationships. Preliminary findings from the elicitations highlight that institutional effectiveness is a consistent differentiator of climate action. High state capacity, low corruption, and credible enforcement reduce challenges to mitigation and adaptation, while weaker institutions and armed conflict substantially increase them.