PM10 and PM2.5 Reduction under BAU and MFR Scenarios in the EU Air Quality Directive Context

Particulate matter remains a significant air quality challenge in Europe, underscoring the need for effective solutions in the context of the revised EU Ambient Air Quality Directive (EU) 2024/2881, which introduces stricter requirements for protecting human health.

In this study, the impact of national emission reduction pathways on PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations is analysed using the on-line chemical transport model GEM-AQ, which provides a detailed assessment tool for policymakers and researchers. The model is based on the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) numerical weather prediction system and was extended with a comprehensive tropospheric chemistry and aerosol module within the MAQNet project.

Three simulations for the base year 2022 were conducted: a baseline emission scenario and two emission reduction scenarios - Business as Usual (BAU), reflecting current legislation, and Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR), representing the maximum technically achievable emission reductions. These scenarios enable policymakers and researchers to evaluate PM10 and PM2.5 responses to emission changes across national and urban-regional scales, supporting evidence-based decision-making.

The comparison of BAU and MFR scenarios highlights how concentrations respond to emission control efforts, emphasising the value of this research for informing policy and supporting evidence-based air quality management under evolving EU regulations.

We will present the change of the extent of exceedance areas, population exposed and number of air quality zones with exceedances with a focus on urban zones.