Observed changes in spatiotemporal characteristics of wildfires in South Asia

Building resilience to high-impact wildfire episodes, particularly in a warming climate, requires a deeper understanding of how fire regimes are changing across spatial and temporal scales. This need is especially critical in regions where wildfires have recently emerged as a significant environmental and societal hazard, despite historically being considered low-risk. One such region is South Asia, where preparedness and response mechanisms remain far less developed compared with regions that have a long-established history of wildfire threats. 

This study analyses recent changes in the spatiotemporal characteristics of wildfires across South Asia using satellite-derived data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the period 2001–2023. The analysis also examines the relative susceptibility of homogeneous ecoregions within South Asia and assesses the extent to which these environments are experiencing holistic changes in fire characteristics. Statistically significant positive trends are identified in both fire frequency and intensity across much of the study region, including vegetated areas of central India and central Pakistan. These regions, along with Nepal, exhibit notable increases in fire intensity, as measured by Fire Radiative Power, whereas decreases in intensity are observed in the most fire-prone parts of Bangladesh, north-east India, and Sri Lanka. Furthermore, the analysis explores previously unexamined changes in the intra-annual timing of fire occurrence. Results indicate a shift towards an earlier annual peak in fire incidence across many parts of India and Pakistan, while other areas show evidence of later fire activity, underscoring an additional layer of vulnerability for these countries. 

This work provides new insights into the regional and local nuances of wildfire dynamics across a complex and, in the global context of wildfire danger, understudied region. The presence of significant trends in fire characteristics within ecoregions associated with tropical forests is particularly concerning. Our findings highlight the need for further investigation into the implications of these shifts for fire management, risk reduction and evidence-based decision-making in South Asia.